January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


Daily average over the entire course of the day. Averaging just the high and the low is a very inaccurate way of doing it.

If you had a hot sunny day averaging 80 degrees and you had a thunderstorm downdraft that cooled the temperature to 60 for 2 hours, but all the other hours of the day were at 80 degrees, then the "average" would be 70 degrees, if you took the high of 80 and the low of 60. In reality, the mean temp was 78-79.

Yet it is done that way sometimes...and the high or the low is used for so much analysis, when, yes, a day of near constant temps is so very different than the usual high and low separated by 20 degrees .

Good to see you back.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting TampaSpin:
Question Dr. Masters is the average Temperature taken by simply Adding the Low and the Highs together then dividing or it a daily average by hour each day.


Daily average over the entire course of the day. Averaging just the high and the low is a very inaccurate way of doing it.

If you had a hot sunny day averaging 80 degrees and you had a thunderstorm downdraft that cooled the temperature to 60 for 2 hours, but all the other hours of the day were at 80 degrees, then the "average" would be 70 degrees, if you took the high of 80 and the low of 60. In reality, the mean temp was 78-79.
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Question Dr. Masters is the average Temperature taken by simply Adding the Low and the Highs together then dividing or it a daily average by hour each day.
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Quoting JeffMasters:


The Tampa dot averages in some nearby ocean regions. If you look at the dot map for land areas only, it shows Tampa was about 3°C (5.4°F) cooler than average.

Jeff Masters

It sure would be nice if they had the same baseline (marriage of pre and post satellite coverage issues aside).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Minnemike:


gotcha; thanks again!
these are features i'm very familiar with, having viewed weather related loops of all types with great enthusiasm for many years. however, engaging the folks in here (most folk!) requires adapting the lingo, which i'm just starting to acquire.

this s.wave caught my eye on water vapor loops, but i hadn't seen any discussion on it. i'm just starting to gain a footing on how GOM lows behave, while my 'intuitive' expertise is really how north central plains weather behaves. i've been shocked by some GOM lows that look like nothing to me, yet folks here start making bomb predictions that pan out. i just like to make visual predictions before assessing models.. as a private game more or less.


That is a great habit that you should never stop. Trusting nothing but models is an error in forecasting that is becoming much too common even in the professional ranks. Looking at the data yourself and drawing your own conclusions, then using the computers for support, is the best way to go, so good for you.

Yes GOM lows generally start very weak. That is how the superstorm in March 1993 started. They tend to ramp up pretty fast once they start up the eastern seaboard though, which is the "bombing out" that everyone predicts.

This particular little system though is not in a favorable position to strengthen, and should gradually weaken as it crosses the gulf. It will pretty much fade away after reaching Florida, but the residual moisture left behind will enhance thunderstorms over the southeast when the storm early next week moves into the Ohio Valley..
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Quoting JeffMasters:


The Tampa dot averages in some nearby ocean regions. If you look at the dot map for land areas only, it shows Tampa was about 3°C (5.4°F) cooler than average.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Dr. Masters for clarifing the Dot Map.
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157. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just to show the inaccuracy of the dot map. Below is from Tampa International Airport. This does not appear this way on the Dot Map.
That Dot Map is a JOKE!



The average temperature in the month of January 2010 for Tampa International Airport averaged 6.6F degrees below average. Typically in January, our daytime highs approach 70 while overnight lows are near 52. If we were near those normals, the average monthly temperature would be about 61.3 degrees F.

January 2010 was a cold month though, with an average monthly temperature of 54.7 degrees F. That is 6.6 degrees F below average. That makes January in Tampa the sixth coldest on record.

February is not looking much better either as we already are running below average. So far our monthly average of highs and lows combined is 57.6F This is 4.2 degrees F below average. The next 5-7 days all look below average and even the extended models suggest the rest of the month will remain cooler than average. So much for the warm Florida winters!


The Tampa dot averages in some nearby ocean regions. If you look at the dot map for land areas only, it shows Tampa was about 3°C (5.4°F) cooler than average.

Jeff Masters
Quoting Levi32:


Well the moisture itself has nothing to do with the actual definition of a shortwave. The shortwave is the "kink" or "buckle" in the upper air flow across the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture that you are seeing flowing from the Yucatan to Florida is moisture being pulled up by the southwesterly flow on the east side of the shortwave, or the right-hand side of the rounded "V" shape that a shortwave generally forms.


gotcha; thanks again!
these are features i'm very familiar with, having viewed weather related loops of all types with great enthusiasm for many years. however, engaging the folks in here (most folk!) requires adapting the lingo, which i'm just starting to acquire.

this s.wave caught my eye on water vapor loops, but i hadn't seen any discussion on it. i'm just starting to gain a footing on how GOM lows behave, while my 'intuitive' expertise is really how north central plains weather behaves. i've been shocked by some GOM lows that look like nothing to me, yet folks here start making bomb predictions that pan out. i just like to make visual predictions before assessing models.. as a private game more or less.
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PRODUCT CHANGES FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON

Most of these have been previously announced, this one I had not seen publicly before:

The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.
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Quoting Minnemike:

thanks.
just took a wikipedia crash course in 'shortwaves'.. would the upper level moisture spanning from the yucatan to florida be classified as part of the shortwave? or does that feature carry a distinct classification?


Well the moisture itself has nothing to do with the actual definition of a shortwave. The shortwave is the "kink" or "buckle" in the upper air flow across the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture that you are seeing flowing from the Yucatan to Florida is moisture being pulled up out of the tropics by the southwesterly flow on the east side of the shortwave, or the right-hand side of the rounded "V" shape in the air flow that a shortwave generally forms.

*edit*

Maybe this illustration will help. The green arrows represent the upper air flow. The pink dashed line represents the axis of the shortwave.

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Earthquake Details
Magnitude 3.4
Date-Time

* Friday, February 19, 2010 at 19:53:42 UTC
* Friday, February 19, 2010 at 11:53:42 AM at epicenter

Location 34.014°N, 117.186°W
Depth 4.8 km (3.0 miles)
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances

* 5 km (3 miles) SSW (196°) from Redlands, CA
* 7 km (4 miles) ESE (122°) from Loma Linda, CA
* 8 km (5 miles) SW (227°) from Mentone, CA
* 11 km (6 miles) NNE (22°) from Moreno Valley, CA
* 98 km (61 miles) E (92°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles)
Parameters Nph=140, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.35 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=2
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
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Quoting Levi32:


Blobby? Lol you mean this?



That's just a shortwave in the subtropical jet that will travel east across the gulf over the next couple days and flatten out. The gulf coast may see some scattered showers/t-storms from this but nothing significant.

thanks.
just took a wikipedia crash course in 'shortwaves'.. would the upper level moisture spanning from the yucatan to florida be classified as part of the shortwave? or does that feature carry a distinct classification?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Is everyone still reading the discussion I posted or did I kill the blog?

No, you did not kill the blog! It's the middle of winter and people drop in and out on a regular basis.

I read the NWS Ft Worth-Dallas, TX Area Forecast Discussion from earlier today. It looks like we will see several inches or more of snow, on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Two more inches will set an all time snow season record, the DFW records go back to 1898. I am looking forward to this :0)!
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Quoting Minnemike:
have i missed any commentary on whether something is organizing in the GOM?
looks to be shaping into something.. blobby.


Blobby? Lol you mean this?



That's just a shortwave in the subtropical jet that will travel east across the gulf over the next couple days and flatten out. The gulf coast may see some scattered showers/t-storms from this but nothing significant.
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Excerpt from EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION


12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES DAYS 4-7 CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW ENG.

A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN
STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY
THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD
FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. THE
STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD
TREK TO THE SE COAST. WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY
6...THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENG.
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have i missed any commentary on whether something is organizing in the GOM?
looks to be shaping into something.. blobby.
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Lol ;) russian or us origin? Let's hope we ever make it so far ...
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Quoting aspectre:

Aftermath of a stealth bomber attacking a neighboring star system.
Lol ;)
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143. xcool
mmm
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It's amazingly warm in areas where they no longer actually read the thermometers.
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Aftermath of a stealth bomber attacking a neighboring star system.
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Here are the approximate positions of Invests 90C and 94P. Invest 94P is the new name given to the western-most LLC of this elongated tropical disturbance. 94P is currently in the process of becoming the dominant circulation of the system.

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Once again a beautiful sunrise shot of Invest 90C-Invest 94P as the first visible full-disks come in:

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Quoting toontown:


Thank you for the link - finally had a chance to read it.

And now I'm REALLY confused. How is it possible that we are 7.7 F above average when we can't even hit our published average daily highs. I'm right here,firmly planted in a snow bank that hasn't melted since early November, I'm freezing my - - - , no I'm just frozen !!

How does this math work ?? HELP ME SEE THE LIGHT!!!!


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Post 129.

It doesn't matter that you are not hitting your average daily highs if you are even further from your average daily lows...

For a simple example:

Say your average daily high is 32F
Average daily low = 0F

If for some reason the temperature stays constant day and night for the whole month (remember I am simplifying here) and is 20F.

Your likely average temperature would be about 16F but your actual average temperature would be 20F, +4F on the month. However, since most people move about in the warmest part of the day, they would say what a damn cold month based on empirical evidence....
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I'm thinking the 12Z ECMWF is coming into agreement with the GFS, although I'm not quite sure because I'm still not so confident on my ability to read the ECMWF yet.


12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours.


12Z ECMWF @ 120 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
New images from NASA wise sat



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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Is everyone still reading the discussion I posted or did I kill the blog?
Watching but still looks in Chaos. "HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST."
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3224
Quoting Floodman:
Nah, you killed it...LOL

Figures...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
17 TampaSpin"Just to show the inaccuracy of the dot map...That Dot Map is a JOKE!"

The area of the dot map you refer to appears to cover a square bounded on the west by 85degreesW, on the north by 30degreesN, on the east by 80degreesW, and on the south by 25degreesN. ie The area covers more of the Gulf of Mexico than of Florida.
And just as the ocean warms less than the land during hot spells, the ocean cools less than the land during the cold spells.
So it is unsurprising that during winter, the average temperature of air over ocean+land is greater than the average temperature of air over land alone. Made even less surprising by the fact that the coldest portions of the recent cold waves went over Florida rather than over the Gulf.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? Question all you want, that is healthy. I do it myself.
Though, about the science, all over it and you know it.

Have you realized it was a joke?

Here it is again:


Now if you think I am really positing that the cost of a stamp is the cause of warming surface temps, well, I cannot help you.

My true opinion, btw, is that AGW is directly tied to the number of bagels consumed in NYC. Bagels cause global warming.
Of course I knew it was a joke, but always joking GW is false is wrong. You have a right to not agree but we should be careful because public is being fooled to question GW.
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Nah, you killed it...LOL
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Enviroment Canada has 52.167N -106.717W Mean Temperature difference from Normal (1971-2000) (degrees C) at 4.3.


Thank you for the link - finally had a chance to read it.

And now I'm REALLY confused. How is it possible that we are 7.7 F above average when we can't even hit our published average daily highs. I'm right here,firmly planted in a snow bank that hasn't melted since early November, I'm freezing my - - - , no I'm just frozen !!

How does this math work ?? HELP ME SEE THE LIGHT!!!!
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Is everyone still reading the discussion I posted or did I kill the blog?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
This morning's Fort Worth forecast discussion is a good read!

000
FXUS64 KFWD 191005
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF WEEKEND DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT AND A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...DONT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING S/W.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED EARLY SUNDAY BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION BUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL STILL MAINTAIN HAIL POTENTIAL DUE TO STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND CONTINUES NORTHEAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...HOWEVER...THE STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT USUALLY
DONT FAVOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
EARLY SUNDAY...RAPIDLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.

AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 51 64 54 63 / 10 10 20 50 70
WACO, TX 60 52 64 58 69 / 10 10 10 40 60
PARIS, TX 58 46 59 51 61 / 20 20 20 50 80
DENTON, TX 59 49 62 53 61 / 10 10 20 50 70
MCKINNEY, TX 58 49 61 54 62 / 20 20 20 50 80
DALLAS, TX 59 51 64 55 64 / 10 10 20 50 70
TERRELL, TX 59 49 63 55 65 / 20 10 20 50 70
CORSICANA, TX 60 50 63 57 66 / 10 10 10 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 60 51 65 56 73 / 10 10 10 30 50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DUNN
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting Bordonaro:
#115..For Dallas-Ft Worth, TX temps between 32-34F and 8" of wet heavy snow!!!


WooHoo!
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Quoting Bordonaro:
#106, you are a very bright meteorlogical student! You are going to have a great career. You notice things the average person may not. You have an analytical mind and you can also think outside the box, an essential for a meteorologist.

And according to the last threee GFS runs we're going to get slammed, AGAIN!!

Thanks, I seem to be doing alright for myself after one semester (well, I better be if the professors give me nicknames!). As for the snow, if I see any, it will be the 4th time this year I have, which far exceeds any frequency I have ever observed! However, the amounts here have been pitiful, with the only accumulation occurring the day Dallas had their foot+ of snow, when we got a quarter of an inch with a 10 minute snowburst. I'm hoping I'll be able to see more if this event materializes.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting TampaSpin:


LIKE maybe underground power lines......just my guess!


I've spent a few months in/around a wind farm while working on a turbine study. All cables are buried at the same depth most telephone lines located in right-of-ways, usually 4 to 6 feet deep. While the cable corridors need to be dug up during installation, farmers can begin farming this land as soon as the soil settles... it's not an issue.
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Quoting Skepticall:


really its

Climate change will lead to war, vets warn
Coalition: They argue for green energy

Rolling on to the state Capitol Campus in a 45-foot bus, several veterans of the Iraq war joined with state legislators who are military veterans to make the link between fighting climate change and boosting national security through clean energy.

The debate over global warming has moved beyond melting ice caps that threaten polar bears and other environmental threats to a bipartisan issue with links to national security, said state Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, a former infantry officer.

Climate change is a national security threat that destabilizes governments and attracts terrorist organizations, Hobbs said.

We re sending truckloads of money out of the country every hour to buy oil, said state Rep. Larry Seaquist, D-Gig Harbor, a former Navy warship captain. We need an energy-independent economy.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/northwest/story/1069842.html
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Thanks for that update Levi! I've been monitoring this event for several day now, and not just because it is interesting (although I wouldn't require any other reason). However, over the past few days, you have been mentioning the proximity of the subtropcial jet to 90C. With the subrtopical jet coming out of the CPAC and then streaming over my head, I would think that it would pick up some of 90C's moisture and stream it my way. My time period of intrest is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, when a cold shot again enters Texas. If the timing is correct between 90C's moisture and the cold airmass, it would be possible for the formation of snow across Texas once again. This is what I believe the GFS is picking up on.


This is possible. The SOI burst (the direct cause of the development of 90C) is injecting moisture into an already enhanced southern branch over the eastern Pacific and North America. You can still see a weak connection of moisture from 90C all the way up to my back yard in Alaska. It was stronger yesterday, but it is definitely possible that some moisture will still get picked up and carried across into the lower 48 next week.

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Thanks for that update Levi! I've been monitoring this event for several day now, and not just because it is interesting (although I wouldn't require any other reason). However, over the past few days, you have been mentioning the proximity of the subtropcial jet to 90C. With the subrtopical jet coming out of the CPAC and then streaming over my head, I would think that it would pick up some of 90C's moisture and stream it my way. My time period of intrest is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, when a cold shot again enters Texas. If the timing is correct between 90C's moisture and the cold airmass, it would be possible for the formation of snow across Texas once again. This is what I believe the GFS is picking up on. Of course, it is more complicated than that, but I believe that this will be an essential factor for any snow that does fall across Texas.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
#115..For Dallas-Ft Worth, TX temps between 32-34F and 8" of wet heavy snow!!!
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Quoting Skepticall:


As I may say I did say 2008. Plus I would rather have a different source than cnn.


It doesn't change when the source changes, and it its for 2008, look a the column heading.
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Quoting TampaTom:
Man, yesterday everyone was a tizzy with the thought of domestic terrrorism...

Today, you can't go to any news sites without seeing Tiger Woods' face plastered on them...

c'est les nouvelles....



No, not the Woods thing again ,,,,,,aaaarrrgggg!!!


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Looks like 'the bomb' in TX on Tues.
What does that mean for temps and weather?
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Quoting Skepticall:
How can


How we know global warming is happening
Skeptical Science explains: It's the oceans!

http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/15/the-climate-science-project-global-warming-is-happening-ocean -heat-content/
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#106, you are a very bright meteorlogical student! You are going to have a great career. You notice things the average person may not. You have an analytical mind and you can also think outside the box, an essential for a meteorologist.

And according to the last threee GFS runs we're going to get slammed, AGAIN!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.