January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.

The notion that the ocean is causing global warming is ruled out by the observation that the ocean is warming (Levitus 2005). Internal climate changes such as El Nino and thermohaline variability stem from transfers of heat such as from the ocean to the atmosphere. If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.
Other studies

In fact, ocean observations confirm both global warming and its cause. Barnett 2007 compares observations of ocean temperatures to results from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and finds "model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations". This suggests "the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system."



Warming in the pipeline

The other consequence of the warming ocean is it means there is additional "warming in the pipeline". Even if CO2 emissions were to start falling now, we already face further global warming of about another half degree by the end of the 21st century (Meehl 2005).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm


At the bottom of the above post is a link to "skeptical science" (I know, me too). Within that link is comment #7. Comment #7 quotes a different study that shows ocean content decreasing and ocean temperatures cooling according to preliminary 2009 data. I am not questioning "skeptical science" (I know, I know), I'm just pointing out that there are several opinions on this issue. Hope this helps.
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Quoting Skepticall:


So I shouldn't drink as much water, or print out my school work, or drive so I can get an education?


Ever heard of recycled paper?
Ever heard of electric cars or hybrids?
Ever heard of clean energy?

Obviously not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skepticall:


So I shouldn't drink as much water, or print out my school work, or drive so I can get an education?


Of course not. We have access to use of solar, wind, tidal, hydro-electric, wind, even nuclear power and natural gas. We can recycle, reuse, leave a lighter footprint on the planet.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting NttyGrtty:
I was quoting

Than post the part where it says that ocean is cooling. You talking about ...
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Early Spring Weather on tap for Dallas-Ft Worth, TX for Sunday 2-21-10:


An upper level disturbance will move through North Texas late Saturday night and Sunday. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late Saturday night and move through the region during the day Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected...mainly producing large hail. A strong cold front will swing through North Texas by Sunday evening.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I agree-- I even enjoy listening (reading) to all of the different opinions/beliefs/studies on Global Warming/Climate Change but when it becomes a war, I dont even enjoy reading it. I wish the blog (specifically on climate change topics) were more like some of my Graduate Courses in where a few people will have VERY differing views, but it is gone about in a RESPECTFUL manner (with no name calling haha). Its more of an intellectual discussion/debate rather than an argument or war.


I know people have strong feelings about climate change, I do also.

I believe we ALL should practuce good stewardship of our natural resources.

Earth is a gift from God, to be used responsibly by all.

All the tools are availiable for all mankind to be prosperous and share the bounty of the planet, without destroying everything we see, from trees, ground water, oceans, forests and our atmosphere.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Why don't you post than your peer reviewed study which supports the cooling trend you talking about.
I was quoting YOUR link. Within YOUR link, there is disagreement...just thought you would want to know that being the objective scientist you are (as we all are on here, right?)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank's Dr.....Will be interesting to see the timing of the "cross the threshold into neutral territory" as many of Yall have noted and what effect time lag will have on the early part of the season....Can't wait to see how things unfold this year as every year is different and brings a few surprises.


If the CFS model is right,Neutral ENSO will be there by July.

Link
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I don't understand why we can't discuss climate change/variability the way we discuss everything else. I know that variety is the spice of life, but man, these discussions usually become like a World War.

I agree-- I even enjoy listening (reading) to all of the different opinions/beliefs/studies on Global Warming/Climate Change but when it becomes a war, I dont even enjoy reading it. I wish the blog (specifically on climate change topics) were more like some of my Graduate Courses in where a few people will have VERY differing views, but it is gone about in a RESPECTFUL manner (with no name calling haha). Its more of an intellectual discussion/debate rather than an argument or war.
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52. Skyepony (Mod)
Tampa~The land only map, has a bigger dot for Tampa, shows pretty much the same result of -3.7C i did the math to get. I think the other included buoys & the dot graph like the rest of it is a broader representation of the finer details known, we can't cram into that small an area.

Atmo~ I got a laugh out it..
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Quoting NttyGrtty:


Some say hotter, some say colder and thanks to search engines we can all find documented, peer reviwed data to support either conclusion...

Why don't you post than your peer reviewed study which supports the cooling trend you talking about.
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Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100
Quantifying atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]atm) during Earth’s ancient greenhouse episodes is essential for accurately predicting the response of future climate to elevated CO2 levels. Empirical estimates of [CO2]atm during Paleozoic and Mesozoic greenhouse climates are based primarily on the carbon isotope composition of calcium carbonate in fossil soils. We report that greenhouse [CO2]atm have been significantly overestimated because previously assumed soil CO2 concentrations during carbonate formation are too high. More accurate [CO2]atm, resulting from better constraints on soil CO2, indicate that large (1,000s of ppmV) fluctuations in [CO2]atm did not characterize ancient climates and that past greenhouse climates were accompanied by concentrations similar to those projected for A.D. 2100.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576
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Nature Geoscience study: Oceans are acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred
Unrestricted burning of fossil fuels threatens a new wave of die-offs

Marine life face some of the worst impacts. We now know that global warming is “capable of wrecking the marine ecosystem and depriving future generations of the harvest of the seas” (see 2009 Nature Geoscience study concludes ocean dead zones “devoid of fish and seafood” are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years”).

The acidification of the ocean in particular is a grave threat — for links to primary sources and recent studies, see “Imagine a World without Fish: Deadly ocean acidification — hard to deny, harder to geo-engineer, but not hard to stop” (and below).

A new Nature Geoscience study, “Past constraints on the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to massive carbon dioxide release” (subs. req’d) provides a truly ominous warning. The release from the researchers at the University of Bristol is “Rate of ocean acidification the fastest in 65 million years.”
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-natu re-geoscience/
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

Me too

I don't understand why we can't discuss climate change/variability the way we discuss everything else. I know that variety is the spice of life, but man, these discussions usually become like a World War.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.

The notion that the ocean is causing global warming is ruled out by the observation that the ocean is warming (Levitus 2005). Internal climate changes such as El Nino and thermohaline variability stem from transfers of heat such as from the ocean to the atmosphere. If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.
Other studies

In fact, ocean observations confirm both global warming and its cause. Barnett 2007 compares observations of ocean temperatures to results from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and finds "model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations". This suggests "the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system."



Warming in the pipeline

The other consequence of the warming ocean is it means there is additional "warming in the pipeline". Even if CO2 emissions were to start falling now, we already face further global warming of about another half degree by the end of the 21st century (Meehl 2005).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm


The link also quotes "Cazenave et al 2008 concludes that the steric sea level has been falling since 2006. The ARGO data shows that there has been a recent swift fall in ocean heat content globally. (Oct 2009 prelim data)" Some say hotter, some say colder and thanks to search engines we can all find documented, peer reviwed data to support either conclusion...
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Quoting Bordonaro:


We have a major short term weather pattern shift for the Continental USA, starting this weekend.

We will go from a zonal west to east pattern, with weak weather systems and changable weather to a split flow, where the Polar and Sub Tropical Jets will introduce colder Arctic air from thr North and warm, moist and pieces of uppler level energy across the SW, S Plains into the SE.

Boy, I wish that was the blog topic for today.

Me too
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Speaking of jokes, it appears we have readers in here that do not get even the most obvious of jokes...


Awsome!!!! Can you please explain.......ROFLMAO!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
If this guy is right, it could explain the dot issues you all have brought up :)

http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/84277557.html

BTW, Coleman did a special last night that is accessible through the link above.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

Oh no!!


We have a major short term weather pattern shift for the Continental USA, starting this weekend.

We will go from a zonal west to east pattern, with weak weather systems and changable weather to a split flow, where the Polar and Sub Tropical Jets will introduce colder Arctic air from the North and warm, moist air over the S US, with pieces of upper level energy across the SW, S Plains into the SE.

Boy, I wish that was the blog topic for today.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The Top Five Cities for Clean Energy Jobs


Workers stand outside the Rebuilding Center in Portland, OR, which is the nation%u2019s largest nonprofit for salvaged construction and remodeling materials. The Center offers employees living wage positions with benefits. Portland created more than 20,000 green jobs in 2007 alone. This is a CAP repost.

Clean energy jobs continue to make inroads in the U.S. economy. Growth in these jobs was a robust 9.1 percent between 1998 and 2007 compared to 3.7 percent overall, and in January President Obama promised $2.3 billion in Recovery Act Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credits for clean-energy manufacturing projects nationwide that will create tens of thousands of clean-energy jobs. Meanwhile, the stimulus bill is pumping $30 billion into the clean-energy sector, and aggressive smart grid deployment could create 270,000 U.S. jobs and a further 138,000 if our smart grid technologies are exported to a global market.

Some regions have become green jobs strongholds. Here are the top five U.S. cities that are seeing the most growth:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/19/the-top-five-cities-for-clean-energy-jobs/
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Looks like a fabulous day of discussing Climate Change/Variability.

Oh no!!
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Looks like a fabulous day of discussing Climate Change/Variability.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya and as one has pointed out, the last 15yrs we have not seen any global warming and that dot map does not even include that period. Wonder why........WHAT A FREAKING JOKE!

Speaking of jokes, it appears we have readers in here that do not get even the most obvious of jokes...
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Quoting toontown:
With all due repsect to the large red dot placed at 52.2 N and 106.7 W, that may be the color of my frozen nose, but it has nothing to do with the local temperature during January 2010.

Not once, did we hit the LONG TERM AVERAGE day time high as published by Enviroment Canada for January.

Please revise and resubmit a corrected red dot for this location.



Enviroment Canada has 52.167N -106.717W Mean Temperature difference from Normal (1971-2000) (degrees C) at 4.3.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? Question all you want,
Now while you run out of obscure twisted scientific examples you become really helpless ;)

Aggies explains GW with US postal stamps. ROFL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This is land only!


With a different base period.
How stupid. NEDIS/NOAA couldn't give us data we could compare?
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Quoting centex:
Just wish many of you guys would join science on this topic, makes me question what many of you say.

??? Question all you want, that is healthy. I do it myself.
Though, about the science, all over it and you know it.

Have you realized it was a joke?

Here it is again:


Now if you think I am really positing that the cost of a stamp is the cause of warming surface temps, well, I cannot help you.

My true opinion, btw, is that AGW is directly tied to the number of bagels consumed in NYC. Bagels cause global warming.
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This is land only!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448


Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space.

The notion that the ocean is causing global warming is ruled out by the observation that the ocean is warming (Levitus 2005). Internal climate changes such as El Nino and thermohaline variability stem from transfers of heat such as from the ocean to the atmosphere. If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.
Other studies

In fact, ocean observations confirm both global warming and its cause. Barnett 2007 compares observations of ocean temperatures to results from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and finds "model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations". This suggests "the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system."



Warming in the pipeline

The other consequence of the warming ocean is it means there is additional "warming in the pipeline". Even if CO2 emissions were to start falling now, we already face further global warming of about another half degree by the end of the 21st century (Meehl 2005).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Never though I would be wishing the heat to return to us in FL.


Amen, brother, amen!
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Quoting McBill:


Just giving the map a quick eyeball, it looks like that dot near Tampa includes just about all of Florida south of Daytona Beach. Also, I'd say about half of the area included in that dot is Gulf of Mexico. What were surface temperatures like in the Gulf during January?

Assuming that the SST anomalies don't change much within 2 weeks, one could say that the Jan 14 map is representative.



Tampa area looks like a bit more than 2C in the gulf, but is close.

What bothers me:
1. Very cold anomaly off of Newfoundland doesn't exist at all in the dots.
2. Most of the cold -1C waters of the north Pacific don't exist in the dots
3. The 2 and 3C areas in the dot map are huge...not in the SST anomalies
4. middle Atlantic values are generally near average in the dots, but SSTs show 1 - 2C negative

I am being picky, though, it does generally match up with the SST okay, outside of a few issues especially related to using land temperature measurements and averages carried out over ocean area.

My last issue is the baseline. We don't have much in the way of global coverage going back to 1971...what qualifies as "normal" SST then? A few buoys and ship measurements, both a meter below the surface. What is SST now? IR satellite measurements that are valid for the top-most few millimeters, which is why it is called skin temperature.
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With all due repsect to the large red dot placed at 52.2 N and 106.7 W, that may be the color of my frozen nose, but it has nothing to do with the local temperature during January 2010.

Not once, did we hit the LONG TERM AVERAGE day time high as published by Enviroment Canada for January.

Please revise and resubmit a corrected red dot for this location.
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Polar view
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And interval base 1951 -2009
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What plagued last season? Mid Level Dry Air.

Caused By El Nino?


It's been noted that and visible that, globally, the atmosphere will be more moist this year. Quite a few factors are pointing to a more productive season this time around.
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23. JRRP

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Interesting weather pattern setting up for the US next week,with systems coming to a screeching halt and depending on where the wheel of misfortune stops is what you get for the week.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
Thank's Dr.....Will be interesting to see the timing of the "cross the threshold into neutral territory" as many of Yall have noted and what effect time lag will have on the early part of the season....Can't wait to see how things unfold this year as every year is different and brings a few surprises.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
19. Skyepony (Mod)
TampaSpin~ From Tampa NWS Jan 2010 monthly review..

REMARKS
THE JANUARY 2010 MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.7 DEGREES
RANKS AS THE SIXTH COLDEST JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1890.
THE COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
50.3 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1981


the ave mean diff is 6.6F

Ave mean =61.3F= 16.3C
obs mean =54.7F= 12.6F
difference is 3.7C

Pretty close to the water, I don't think Orlando has trended as cold. Many nights they've been warmer than here in Melbourne were I'm getting some added warmth from the water. Watched that heat island grow yearly. Either way you need to do the converstions across the area. That dot looks like it would cover a few buoys so don't forget those..
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Well, the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion is discussing a Wintry Weather Event for next Tu/We 2/23-24 from their 4:05AM CST discussion today:

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.

AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Just to show the inaccuracy of the dot map. Below is from Tampa International Airport. This does not appear this way on the Dot Map.
That Dot Map is a JOKE!



The average temperature in the month of January 2010 for Tampa International Airport averaged 6.6F degrees below average. Typically in January, our daytime highs approach 70 while overnight lows are near 52. If we were near those normals, the average monthly temperature would be about 61.3 degrees F.

January 2010 was a cold month though, with an average monthly temperature of 54.7 degrees F. That is 6.6 degrees F below average. That makes January in Tampa the sixth coldest on record.

February is not looking much better either as we already are running below average. So far our monthly average of highs and lows combined is 57.6F This is 4.2 degrees F below average. The next 5-7 days all look below average and even the extended models suggest the rest of the month will remain cooler than average. So much for the warm Florida winters!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
This is TCW by the way.

I didn't find out you could change your email on an existing handle until it was too late. Oh well :-/
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Morning All!

Thanks Dr. Masters.

...does anyone have any updates on the potential Mon-Tues storm for the Ohio Valley??
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What do them numbers on that map mean? I know 1 is coldest and 116 is warmest but where do them numbers come from?
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Projection Shows Water Woes Likely Based on Warmer Temperatures
ScienceDaily (Feb. 19, 2010) — Several Midwestern states could be facing increased winter and spring flooding, as well as difficult growing conditions on farms, if average temperatures rise, according to a Purdue University researcher.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100217093258.htm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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