Europe braces for destructive weekend winter storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on February 24, 2010

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A large but disorganized extratropical storm located over the middle-Atlantic Ocean is expected to move rapidly eastwards towards Spain over the next two days. As the storm approaches Spain on Friday, it is expected to tap into a cold polar airmass to its north and rapidly intensify into a meteorological "bomb"--a mighty winter cyclone with hurricane force winds. Though sea surface temperatures off the coast of Spain are about 1°C below average, the waters of 12 - 16°C will provide plenty of moisture and energy to the powerful storm, which may end up rivaling last year's Winter Storm Klaus in intensity. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Atlantic at 8am EST Wednesday, February 24, 2010. A developing extratropical cyclone over the middle Atlantic threatens to bring hurricane-force wind gusts to Spain and Portugal on Saturday. Meanwhile, a snowstorm over the New England is dumping heavy snows there. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

This Saturday's storm is expected to follow a track very similar to Klaus, reaching maximum intensity at 18 GMT Saturday as it passes just north of Spain and Portugal (Figure 2). If the storm tracks near or over the northwest corner of Spain as most of the models are predicting, the cyclone's powerful cold front will likely bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with damaging hurricane-force wind gusts and flooding rains to northern Spain and Portugal. The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). The latest 06Z run of the Navy NOGAPS model is more aggressive, deepening the storm into a 948 mb monster that misses Spain by several hundred miles, but comes ashore over Ireland Sunday morning with a pressure of 956 mb. This is a central pressure typically found in Category 2 hurricanes! (Note, though, that extratropical systems generally do not generate winds as strong as a hurricane with a similar central pressure, since extratropical storms do not form an eyewall with extreme winds like a hurricane does). The NOGAPS is currently an outlier, though, and the other models such as the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET do not foresee the storm getting that intense. Even so, this weekend's storm has the potential to be a multi-billion dollar weather disaster for Europe.




Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/24/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for mean sea level pressure and 6-hour precipitation (top) and surface winds (bottom). The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure below 968 mb. Sustained winds of 70 - 75 mph (yellow green colors in bottom plot) are expected just offshore of Portugal. Images generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Next post
My next post will be Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tons (jgo)
Stormy weather in Porto, Portugal. Actually all north coast of Portugal is on the alert. Tons of water in this wave.
Tons

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499. Bordonaro
4:18 PM GMT on February 26, 2010
NEW BLOG EVERYBODY!! NEW BLOG ENTRY!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
498. rainmound
10:50 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting postitcast:
I agree Jeff. Much too much warm air coming into this system for places like NYC and Boston to get much snow from this. But the winds though, that's a different story.


I'm in NYC.

Four inches already. The snow is heavy enough to make it extremely difficult to get around. Worse, ice is now packed under it, as the temperature gets cold enough to freeze the first few coats of rain and snow.
Member Since: April 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
497. rainmound
10:49 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting Seastep:


Absolutely correct, Patrap. An accurate data set doesn't lie.

Something changed in 1998. Pretty flat before and pretty flat after. All years are at or below 1997 before and all are at or above after. A new "normal" happened in a single year.

Based on 1979-1997 sat temps, and I also took a peek at some of the GISS temp data for kicks and will be doing a full blog on that, I predict this new normal should be around until 2019, based on initial analysis back to 1957, and then a new "normal" materializes. Up or down.

More detailed blog entry to follow.



Didn't they already identify this change? Check out this link.

"The effects of aerosols in brown clouds are particularly insidious because they seem to have the opposite effect of greenhouse gases. “By sheer, dumb luck, we are adding particles that are trapping sunlight and cooling the planet,” Ramanathan says, but these particles only mask global warming without eliminating it. A sudden drop in global air pollution would be like removing the mask, he explains, and the climate may play catch-up to compensate. “Many of us, including myself, are concerned we could see a huge acceleration of global warming if we unmask the beast.” Yet ignoring air pollution is not the solution either, as studies clearly show its serious health effects, he says. “Air pollution has to be reduced, if not eliminated. It's just a Faustian bargain we have made without realizing it.”

I believe the use and elimination of aerosols resulted in the unmasking which the writer mentions.
Member Since: April 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
496. postitcast
5:18 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
I agree Jeff. Much too much warm air coming into this system for places like NYC and Boston to get much snow from this. But the winds though, that's a different story.
495. TampaTom
5:12 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Man, the blog must be broken... Someone shake this thing...
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
494. Congost
3:10 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting leftovers:
over here in the us we are getting images of theterrible floods near portugal is it the northern or more populated lisbon area? the waters around latin america seem warmer than normal might have a early start to the rainy season.


I think it's in the southern bit, as I seem to remember that Andalusia (on the Spanish side) has had so far a very wet winter with significant flooding and local services disruption. However, here in Catalonia (around Barcelona and the Pyrenees)we are now having a great taste of Spring weather after the wintry weather we have had recently...STILL, no news of big winter storm hitting Europe over here!!
493. Congost
3:10 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting leftovers:
over here in the us we are getting images of theterrible floods near portugal is it the northern or more populated lisbon area? the waters around latin america seem warmer than normal might have a early start to the rainy season.


I think it's in the southern bit, as I seem to remember that Andalusia (on the Spanish side) has had so far a very wet winter with significant flooding and local services disruption. However, here in Catalonia (around Barcelona and the Pyrenees)we are now having a great taste of Spring weather after the wintry weather we have had recently...STILL, no news of big winter storm hitting Europe over here!!
492. GrtLksQuest
3:03 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Here is a link you might enjoy... this is from the news coverage at the start of the Olympics.

Tom Brokaw Explains Canada To Americans


I loved that! See my comments on your blog.
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
491. wanabwetherman
3:03 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The ongoing pattern of these Gulf Lows reminds me of "no name" storm in March of 1993 which hammered Florida with hurricane force winds and moved up the Eastern Seabord as a wicked Noreaster........We might have something like that in the coming months blowing through. I was in Orlando visitng a friend when the 93 one blew through. Lot's of tornadoes and wind damage in Central Florida on that one.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
490. Orcasystems
2:48 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting StormW:


I have no doubts, this hurricane season will keep us busy.


In a morbid way, thank god I guess.. hopefully lots of open ocean storms to watch and chat about... not some of the other choice subjects like last year.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
488. reedzone
2:43 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Hey everyone, been a while. I've been extremely busy with stuff..
The Superstorm is starting for people up north, power outages, road closers, and many more as a possible 975 mlb. low (possibly lower) busts into Long Island, which will calm down winds for them since they will be under the center for most of the time. The 1993 Superstorm was down to 960 mlb. This is a life-threatening storm. My prayers go out to everybody in this historic storm. Would not surprise me that the low bombs down to 970 or below. INteresting storm for weather people like me.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
487. Chicklit
2:42 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
It's in the 40s this a.m. in ECF.
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
44.6 °F
Clear Windchill: 41 °F Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 34 °F Wind: 7.0 mphfrom the WNW
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)

All clear on the western front for now.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
486. Orcasystems
2:38 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Should begin to see a change in the pattern after mid March.


Morning Storm... tell me this year is going to be a bit more active.. this blog will not survive another slow year like the last one... it will self implode.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
485. Orcasystems
2:37 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Thanks. But as long as we would rather be proud of being a 'stupid American' than be diligent about being responsibly informed, I see little likelihood of change - in either direction.


Here is a link you might enjoy... this is from the news coverage at the start of the Olympics.

Tom Brokaw Explains Canada To Americans
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
484. GrtLksQuest
2:27 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I hate to admit it... but you nailed it perfectly.


Thanks. But as long as we would rather be proud of being a 'stupid American' than be diligent about being responsibly informed, I see little likelihood of change - in either direction.
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
482. Orcasystems
2:03 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Hi Aussie, Got in on this a little late. I think your interpretation is the right one. Many Canadians bear significant animosity toward Americans. To many Canadians, America is the proverbial 800 pound gorilla. From the Canadian perspective, America is large, noisy, and overbearing. Worse than that, it generally ignores Canada and is ignorant of Canadian history, culture, politics, etc. (Just think about recent health reform arguments in US, with people being terrified about the possibility of adopting a 'socialist' Canadian system.) The combination of perceived boorishness and ignorance on the part of their American neighbors makes it less likely that the Canadians will cheer for the US against a supposedly more 'civilized' rival.


I hate to admit it... but you nailed it perfectly.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
481. Chucktown
2:01 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
While I agree that it will be a significant snowstorm for the Northeast, even close to a blizzard, good old Bastardi hypin' it up again.

This from the AP

The National Weather Service criticized State College, Pa.-based Accuweather Inc. for referring to the storm that way and for saying it would be "hurricane-like" and a "monster." NWS meteorologist Craig Evanego said the terminology was "almost inciting the public, inciting panic."

Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1775
479. Orcasystems
2:00 PM GMT on February 25, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
478. GrtLksQuest
1:46 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

I thought it was a love-hate relationship. Like the one we have with England.


Hi Aussie, Got in on this a little late. I think your interpretation is the right one. Many Canadians bear significant animosity toward Americans. To many Canadians, America is the proverbial 800 pound gorilla. From the Canadian perspective, America is large, noisy, and overbearing. Worse than that, it generally ignores Canada and is ignorant of Canadian history, culture, politics, etc. (Just think about recent health reform arguments in US, with people being terrified about the possibility of adopting a 'socialist' Canadian system.) The combination of perceived boorishness and ignorance on the part of their American neighbors makes it less likely that the Canadians will cheer for the US against a supposedly more 'civilized' rival.
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
477. weathermanwannabe
1:45 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
The ongoing pattern of these Gulf Lows reminds me of "no name" storm in March of 1993 which hammered Florida with hurricane force winds and moved up the Eastern Seabord as a wicked Noreaster........We might have something like that in the coming months blowing through. I was in Orlando visitng a friend when the 93 one blew through. Lot's of tornadoes and wind damage in Central Florida on that one.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9261
475. IKE
1:34 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
From the Jackson,MS. morning discussion....

"A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER WAVE WILL BE A BROAD AND DEEP CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERTICALLY-STACKED AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE LOW HAVING A MEAN CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. GOING INTO
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CMC...NEARLY EVERY
MEMBER OF THE CMC ENSEMBLES...AND A HANDFUL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE
GEFS ALL KICK THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST...MAKING WAY
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE TO TAKE AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

WHAT THE GFS AND SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO WITH THESE
FEATURES IS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. THESE MODELS ENTIRELY DECOUPLE THE
NORTHEAST CONUS CYCLONE...WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW MERGING WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD-RACING CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THUS
ALLOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LAG BEHIND OVER INLAND
AREAS. GIVEN THE WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE IN
THE GFS/GEFS...THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE WOULD BE
SUPPRESSED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
INDICATING THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION. THIS SUPPRESSION WOULD BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AT
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS CIRCULATION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DECOUPLING AND WESTWARD LAG EVIDENT IN THE GFS/GEFS
HAS LITTLE BACKING FROM ANY OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THE PHYSICAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS DECOUPLING IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACTING ON THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION AND ITS
ANTECEDENT WELL-DEVELOPED VERTICAL STRUCTURE.

THUS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DISCOUNT THE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUPPRESSES THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH BY A
LAGGING MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...AND WILL FOLLOW A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLES.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N/28N. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE FALL OF 5 MB IN 6 HOURS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z ON
TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
INTERESTINGLY...BECAUSE THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE UPPER WAVE SO FAR
SOUTH...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A TRACK FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN CUBA. THIS SOLUTION
IS CERTAINLY AN OUTLIER...AND MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK
MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH A CLUSTER ALONG 26N.

SINCE THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THE GFS IS INDICATING NO PRECIP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION WITH VERY LOW POPS FROM MEX GUIDANCE...AND THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE BEING DISCOUNTED WITH FORECAST POPS RAISED WELL ABOVE MEX
GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLES...PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO
MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THE ECMWF IS INDICATING WET-BULB ZERO (WBZ) HEIGHTS BELOW 1500 FT.
HOWEVER...STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO FORCED ASCENT AND MELTING
PROCESSES ALOFT COULD COOL THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE EVEN MORE.
OR...THE LOW COULD TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH GIVING A
LARGER PART OF THE AREA LOWER WBZ HEIGHTS. IN THESE CASES...SNOW
WOULD BECOME A MORE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. AND IF THIS
OCCURS...STRONG ASCENT THROUGHOUT SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES APPROACHING 100 MB THICK WOULD BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERN FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...A LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH
WOULD RESULT IN WARMER THERMAL PROFILES AND MOSTLY RAIN.
ULTIMATELY...A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS...MENTION IS BEING WITHHELD FROM THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
470. CycloneOz
12:51 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Re 2012:

Link


Should something like that happen, I don't think people are going to be standing around doing nothing about it.

We have things that can help ease the loss of the power grid until it's fixed.

At the top of my list, we plug in the Energizer Bunny for a few days....
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
468. AstroHurricane001
12:43 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Re 2012:

Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
467. CycloneOz
12:43 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
This next one for the NE is being called a "snowicane." LOL...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
466. weathermanwannabe
12:43 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Good Morning... 33 in Tallahassee this morning and no short-term releif in sight right now for the chilly mornings. At least the Azalias will not bloom early this year & be around when Springtime Tallahassee rolls around in April...Also, all of the rain has kept pollen at bay so far......The Wife is not sneezing as much unlike dryer/warmer Februarys the past few years when the cars were covered with the green "slime"....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9261
465. AstroHurricane001
12:36 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Meanwhile, global SSTs:

The Gulf Stream continues to be diverted west-southwestwards due to the cold water intrusion to its north. The <20C zone of the Humboldt is now pointed north-northeastward, hugging the coast and meeting head-on with an area above 26C in northern Chile.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
463. rainmound
12:17 PM GMT on February 25, 2010

Enjoying snow in nyc!
Member Since: April 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
462. severstorm
12:02 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
morning all, and Ike that is excatly what i thought you would say. LOL 37.8 at the house this morning.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
461. IKE
11:59 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
bingo ike! you got the first smile of the day award!

We used to laugh at the CMC...now it's the GFS that looks like it might need a week in rehab.

Ya'll have a blessed day- peace!


L8R.

Down to 30.4.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
460. aquak9
11:54 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
bingo ike! you got the first smile of the day award!

We used to laugh at the CMC...now it's the GFS that looks like it might need a week in rehab.

Ya'll have a blessed day- peace!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26121
459. IKE
11:49 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
a'ways back, maybe sometime yesterday afternoon, early evening- there were some questions about the GFS.

Think someone said it had a SEG error? Something to do with the sequential...or exponental..

ahh but yeah, me thinks GFS has got a screw loose.


It's global warmings fault.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
458. Congost
11:47 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
Hi, here in Catalonia we had a terrible winterstorm in January 2009 (winter storm Klaus), now that you say that this weekend there could be a repeat of last year's disastrous storm, I wonder why local TV and media in general here in Barcelona do not mention this threat at all??
457. aquak9
11:45 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
I'm sure someone else already grabbed this, but this is from NWS JAX- my locals-

ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS THE GULF OF MEX AT SAME TIME.
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW NOW CROSSING
THE FL STRAITS.
THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACRS N FL ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE TREND SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26121
456. aquak9
11:43 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
a'ways back, maybe sometime yesterday afternoon, early evening- there were some questions about the GFS.

Think someone said it had a SEG error? Something to do with the sequential...or exponental..

ahh but yeah, me thinks GFS has got a screw loose.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26121
455. IKE
11:37 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
We reached 26.9.. Brrrr.

The inconsistency of the GFS is puzzling me. Does the ECMWF solution support the same cold temps the GFS supported?


GFS was having problems like this a couple of weeks ago....was discounted and finally came around to the other models.

From the Tallahassee morning discussion....

"THE 00Z GFS AND EURO BOTH KEEP US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM.
NOW...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN PRE RUN AND WELL
SOUTH OF ECMWF..SO IT BACKS OFF FURTHER ON LOCAL IMPACTS.
CONVERSELY...THE EURO WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE NRN FRINGES APPROACHING OUR COASTAL WATERS ALSO HAS A MUCH
LARGER MOISTURE FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
INTO WED MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS SUGGEST
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STILL A TAD TOO WARM
TO SUPPORT SNOW ALTHO THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE
APPROACH EVENT. IF THE EURO VERIFIES...THIS IS A MORE POTENT STORM
SYSTEM THAN THE GULF LOW THAT CROSSED ON SAT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA. IT ALSO WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (RIVER RISES) AND VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS
BETWEEN GULF LOW TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH TO OUR NORTH. IF CONDS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP...THIS COULD YIELD SHARP
CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE OVER SHORT DISTANCES AS WELL AS BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATER. AGAIN
INCONSISTENCY WITH MODELS LEADS ME TO SHY AWAY FROM SOLID PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. AFTER THE LOW LIFTS NEWD BY BY TUES AFTN...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS DOMINATED THE NE GULF
TUES EVE THRU THURS.

WILL SHOW SCT POPS WITH SW-NE GRADIENT MON NIGHT THRU TUES AFTN
OTHERWISE NIL POPS. THIS IS CLOSER TO ECMWF POPS AS OPPOSED TO GFS
WHICH SHOWS WDLY SCT-LO SCT POPS. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BOTH GULF LOWS (ENTRENCHED IN COOL SECTOR) MON INTO TUES...
OTHERWISE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGHS BUILDING IN...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CP AIRMASS OUTBREAKS. THUS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU
PERIOD. INLAND CLIMO IS MIN TEMPS IN LOW-MID 40S AND MAX TEMPS
AROUND 70. SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH MINS AROUND 30 DEGREES
YIELDING A LIGHT FREEZE WITH COLDEST MINS REMAINING IN THE MID 30S
THRU THE PERIOD. INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND
60 NRN TIER OF SE ALA/SW GA."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
454. HurricaneSwirl
11:33 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
We reached 26.9.. Brrrr.

The inconsistency of the GFS is puzzling me. Does the ECMWF solution support the same cold temps the GFS supported?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
453. IKE
11:30 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
I'm at 30.9...my morning low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
451. IKE
11:26 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
First north Florida, now the Florida straits. GFS got local mets confused, too, per NWS JAX and NWS Melbourne.



True...this from this mornings Melbourne discussion....

"A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY ECMWF TO AFFECT THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE MAINTAINED 40% POPS TUE
AND ADDED THUNDER TO ALL AREAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN. AFTER BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LAST NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS IS NOW DEPICTING
A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. WE`LL SEE IF THE GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO
SOMETHING BUT THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODEL SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. EXPECT BOTH MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
EVENTUALLY...HOPEFULLY SOONER THAN LATER."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
450. aquak9
11:22 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
First north Florida, now the Florida straits. GFS got local mets confused, too, per NWS JAX and NWS Melbourne.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26121
449. twhcracker
11:12 AM GMT on February 25, 2010
440. clinton had a totally balanced budget. bush jr put it in the toilet. but then, clinton was doing his mistress not the nation.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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