Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:


I don't care what papers they are or if it's 2 papers or 1 it doesn't matter. What matters is people saying this:

"*Intriguingly, while normal El Niños tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, so-called Modoki El Niños are actually positively correlated with them, and as the planet warms it looks as though Modoki El Niños are becoming more common."

...Obviously referring to Global Warming, as I know you are a supporter of GW. I'm trying to point out why GW shouldn't be the automatically assumed cause of the result of these papers.

I think this was not the point here. The point is that we can observe storms which last longer, drop more precipitation, cost more money etc. And this is from warmer waters/temperatures.
We need clean energy to prevent more warming.

144: Very good.

To toss in a little history, obviously something in the 20th century was different from the late 1800s, too, when Georgia's coastline was hit by a number of major hurricanes. Georgia was hit by cat 3s in 1854, 1893, and a cat 4 in 1898. None since. Clearly AGW wasn't the reason in the teens through 40s.

What was it? I am with you in the combination of cycles...most likely cause, but never could try proving it without good data.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I think this was not the point here. The point is that we can observe storms which last longer, drop more precipitation, cost more money etc. And this is from warmer waters/temperatures.
We need clean energy to prevent more warming.

You say that and then say GW is not the point? lol

Ok I'll drop it now, my explanation of the paper is already posted above. Look at the PDO and AMO graphs and tell me if the correlation to the listed dates isn't good enough to mean anything at all. The dates listed in the paper couldn't fit more perfectly to the natural oceanic-atmospheric climate cycles over the last century.

Quoting Skepticall:
The myth of global warming blizzards
WRITTEN BY JAMES M. TAYLOR, HEARTLAND INSTITUTE,

James M. Taylor ( jtaylor@heartland.org ) is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute

No increase in flooding ;)
Do you belive what he says or why do you post this?

Quoting atmoaggie:
144: Very good.

To toss in a little history, obviously something in the 20th century was different from the late 1800s, too, when Georgia's coastline was hit by a number of major hurricanes. Georgia was hit by cat 3s in 1854, 1893, and a cat 4 in 1898. None since. Clearly AGW wasn't the reason in the teens through 40s.

What was it? I am with you in the combination of cycles...most likely cause, but never could try proving it without good data.

It's hard to prove nearly anything weather-wise from before the satellite era due to arguments about lack of data, and there are obviously going to be other things in play, but I think everyone will agree that the biggest effect on global tropical cyclones are easily the oceans.

As to why Georgia hasn't been hit by a major in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline. Many storms have come pretty close, including hurricane Dora in 1964 that nailed Jacksonville, Florida.



Hurricane Able also came quite close in 1952, a Cat 2 hurricane:



And of course Hurricane David in 1979:

Quoting Levi32:


You say that and then say GW is not the point? lol

Ok I'll drop it now, my explanation of the paper is already posted above. Look at the PDO and AMO graphs and tell me if the correlation to the listed dates isn't good enough to mean anything at all. The dates listed in the paper couldn't fit more perfectly to the natural oceanic-atmospheric climate cycles over the last century.

If you look at the studys of AMO you will find that it means 1-2 more or less storms per season. Anyway those mechanism been there in the past aswell. If scientist today tell us that storms will be more frequent beacuse of a warming world, im sure they took your argument into account.

Quoting Levi32:
As to why Georgia hasn't been hit in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline.

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.

Quoting Levi32:


It's hard to prove nearly anything weather-wise from before the satellite era due to arguments about lack of data, and there are obviously going to be other things in play, but I think everyone will agree that the biggest effect on global tropical cyclones are easily the oceans.

As to why Georgia hasn't been hit in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline. Many storms have come pretty close, including hurricane Dora in 1964 that nailed Jacksonville, Florida.

I think it is largely luck, due to the topography of the GA coast, a storm pretty much has to hit it head-on. Its very hard to get a glancing blow, or a shallow landfall angle. Also, storms have a hard time hitting it if they have started recurvature.

Quoting atmoaggie:

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.

And having two 16 inch snowstorms in Washington D.C. in the same winter should only happen once every 625 years. Two 22 inch snowstorms in the same year in Philly should only happen once every 10000 years. Both of those events have happened this winter.

Lucky things like that happen.

. nvm

Quoting Levi32:


And having two 16 inch snowstorms in Washington D.C. in the same winter should only happen once every 625 years. Two 22 inch snowstorms in the same year in Philly should only happen once every 10000 years. Both of those events have happened this year.

Lucky things like that happen.

You can through those statistics out the window. It a whole new journey.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Two objects reportedly crashed to the ground near Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia on Feb. 19, 2010. The first object, according to the report on the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) witness database, weighed 10 kg, while the second larger object weighed approximately 2 tons. Other than that, there's not a lot of information available about the objects. But of course, UFOers are having a field day, calling the image, above, that accompanied the report a "leaked UFO crash" picture. But the object looks suspiciously like a rocket or jet engine, or perhaps a rocket nose cone. Objects that crash to Earth likely have a very terrestrial origin. We'll provide an update when any news becomes available. But if you are looking for a few laughs, check out the comments on Io9.
http://www.universetoday.com/2010/02/24/report-two-objects-crash-to-ground-in-mongolia/

Looks like part of a rocket to me. You can see the welding line on the top surface. Also, Mongolia is downwind of the main Russian launching site for satellites with a regular orbit.

Quoting Ossqss:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)

Just think of it this way... El Nino means less fires.

Over the last decade, NASA has launched a series of satellites to monitor the health of our planet. One such satellite -- the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- has provided a sustained, big-picture look at ice thickness at Earth's polar regions.

Now, after seven years in orbit and 15 laser-operation campaigns, ICESat has stopped collecting science data. The last of three lasers on the satellite's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) ceased emitting light on Oct. 11, 2009. Attempts to restart the lasers have ended, and NASA is pursing options for satellite decommissioning.

Despite the end of ICESat's mission, NASA's observations of Earth's polar regions continue. Operation Ice Bridge began in 2009, becoming the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. For the next five years, instruments on NASA aircraft will target areas of rapid change to yield an unprecedented 3-D view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. The mission will bridge the gap in satellite data until the launch of ICESat-2, planned for 2015.

"Operation Ice Bridge is allowing us to get much higher resolution data over smaller, targeted regions," said Lora Koenig of NASA Goddard, and acting project scientist for the Ice Bridge mission.

Targeted information from aircraft combined with the broad and consistent coverage from satellites contribute to a more complete understanding of Earth's response to climate change, helping scientists make better predictions of what the future might hold.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icesat/notable-moments.html

2015 ...

Quoting Ossqss:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)

Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...

Finally some good amount of snow heading into the northeast tomorrow.

Quoting TampaTom:


Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...

Or a prolific nado season aided by a La Nina (see 2007?)

Quoting TampaTom:


Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...

Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)

Ok new blog up for us northeast peeps. Feel free to post your comments and radar/maps etc...

I found the recent paper Tropical cyclones and climate change to be fairly balanced, and from reading the paper the authors did not take an absolute stand on climate change, but analyzed from a tropical cyclone prospective what climate models are indicating. The Supplemental Material provided background for their conclusions.

Quoting Ossqss:


Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)

Layering is awesome. Its amazing how many people don't know about layering.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Or a prolific nado season aided by a La Nina (see 2007?)

Make that 2008.

Quoting Ossqss:


Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)

:-)

'at's the spirit! Another orange tree branch on the fire!

2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.

Snow Blankets the Rocky Mountains

Snow cover stretched from South Dakota’s Mt. Rushmore to Arizona’s Grand Canyon in late February 2010, after snowstorms blanketed the Rocky Mountains. Mostly cloud-free skies allowed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite this largely unobstructed view of the western continental United States on February 23, 2010.

From northern New Mexico, the Rocky Mountains stretch northward through Colorado and Wyoming. Along the eastern face of this mountain range, rugged terrain gives way to prairie, including the flat topography of eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Mountains extend far westward, however, with snow cover accentuating mountain peaks all the way to Salt Lake City. The snow-free Grand Canyon snakes a serpentine path in the southwest, but the land surrounding that park is snow covered, as is much of northern Arizona and New Mexico.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=42797

Quoting jeffs713:


Layering is awesome. Its amazing how many people don't know about layering.

Growing up in Pittsburgh, we learned quickly to layer so that you could still move your arms. LoL

USA - 1
SWIS - 0

Quoting atmoaggie:

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.

You might also consider variations in the Gulf Stream. Hurricanes tend to steer with the eastern wall especially when weak steering is present. Winter storms tend to explode and steer with the western wall. Both related to the direction of approach of the storm. There is also a decrease in landfalling storms where the distance between the coast and the Gulf Stream increase and a corresponding increase as the distance decreases heading north to North Carolina.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.

4-7 hurricane 5 for the atlantic - just my guess.

Swiss robbed of goal - review
USA robbed of goal - review

USA-1
SWI-0

Swiss not robbed of goal - review shows puck not in net.

USA robbed of goal - penalty called on goal...total BS

USA-1
SWI-0

Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
11-14 Named Storms
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes

Quoting CycloneOz:
Swiss not robbed of goal - review shows puck not in net.

USA robbed of goal - penalty called on goal...total BS

USA-1
SWI-0

Where are you watching this 0z?. Olympics don't start on tv for another 9 minutes.

Quoting Levi32:


Where are you watching this 0z?. Olympics don't start on tv for another 9 minutes.

www.nbcolympics.com

Freaking awesome game so far! Best hockey match of the Olympics. Swiss goalie has been unreal.

From 1st Period:

Shot on goal! Hiller saved and REBOUND shot on goal REBOUND another shot SAVED Parissi SHOT and covered by Hiller.

My goodness!!!!!

Quoting Skepticall:


nbc live

I've got local NBC, CNBC, and MSNBC all on other shows until 5pm eastern.....:/ dangit.

*edit* nvm saw Oz's post. Thanks.

CycloneOz Wannabe...(notice the bare legs! That's a no-no in hurricane conditions!)

I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)

But is driving a side-by-side Yamaha Rhino?



We're going to find out this year!

Russia vs. Canada should be a good game also.

Quoting CycloneOz:


But is driving a side-by-side Yamaha Rhino?

We're going to find out this year!

Don't know what that is. Is that kinda like what Batman and Robin rode?

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)

Might be kinda fun in a large counter clockwise circle...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't know what that is. Is that kinda like what Batman and Robin rode?

I own one. I figure since it's low profile, it might do well in a minimal Category storm.

I will not take it out in a Cat 3 or above. I'll chain it down and then drive it to get aftermath footage.

Gotcha

As I mentioned before, just a gut feeling. Have a feeling you are going to be very busy this season.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As I mentioned before, just a gut feeling. Have a feeling you are going to be very busy this season.

Man, after "vacationing" in Bermuda and Cabo San Lucas last year, I hope so.

Changing my camera gear over to the new GoPro is really going to have a dramatic impact on how mobile I can be in a storm.

This year could be very interesting for everyone.

Swiss goal is empty.