Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on February 25, 2010 +0
The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0

...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0

...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5

...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4

...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0

Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.


Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

Next post
My next post will be Friday.

Jeff Masters
Tear Drop (suzi46)
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Tear Drop
()
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501. HurricaneHunterGal 4:28 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting StormChaser81:
Picture of those two huge icebergs.



I was just about to post the picture, too! They are pretty big iceburgs!

I find it interesting that the article's title pretty much says "The ocean currents will change!" but the article itself does not go into too much detail about it-- or at least the amount of details I was looking for. The explanation makes sense, but I was looking for more. I, for one, would like to know the likleyhood of this actually occuring.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
502. Chicklit 4:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Wow. Looks like the NE storm is going to swallow Manhattan!
Winter Storm Warning
NYZ068-070>076-261800-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100227T1100Z/
PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-4:31 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...AS WELL AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

THE WIND WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH NOON. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 12 TO 18 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NEW YORK CITY...WITH TOTALS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS PUTNAM AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
503. HurricaneHunterGal 4:30 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


I was just about to post the picture, too! They are pretty big iceburgs!

I find it interesting that the article's title pretty much says "The ocean currents will change!" but the article itself does not go into too much detail about it-- or at least the amount of details I was looking for. The explanation makes sense, but I was looking for more. I, for one, would like to know the likleyhood of this actually occuring.


I know ocean currents have changed in the past-- but I have not studied past changing ocean currents, so I don't know much about the reality (or gravity--or lack thereof) of the situation.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
504. StormChaser81 4:32 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


I know ocean currents have changed in the past-- but I have not studied past changing ocean currents, so I don't know much about the reality (or gravity--or lack thereof) of the situation.


Just close your eye's and it will all go away.lol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
505. HurricaneHunterGal 4:35 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting StormChaser81:


Just close your eye's and it will all go away.lol


Lol, I am not worried about it, I am just intrieged by it. Is the iceburg big enough and in the right location to really cause salinity changes? And have an effect on ocean temperature enough to have a greater overall effect?

Just curious, not worried.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
506. TampaTom 4:58 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting StormChaser81:
Picture of those two huge icebergs.



Tow one of them babies up to the Gulf for hurricane season!
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049
508. TampaTom 5:06 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting CycloneOz:


Imagine taking that advice when you're standing in the eyewall of a Cat 4. LOL!


It's all mind over matter...

You don't mind, it don't matter....
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049
509. Levi32 5:11 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
This is really bugging me now...

Does anyone know anything at all about how to get an image to show up in the blog header (title) where it usually says "so-and-so's wunderblog".

I've done it before but years ago and now that I want to update it I can't figure it out. The normal img code doesn't work.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459
510. Floodman 5:36 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting StormChaser81:


Just close your eye's and it will all go away.lol


"There's no place like home,
There's no place like home"
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
511. TampaSpin 5:36 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
The icebergs is like a grain of salt in the very large ocean body......it will have very little affect if any IMO!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
512. NewEnglandCT 5:54 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
really good radar pic of the storm over NYC



Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
513. TampaTom 5:59 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting NewEnglandCT:
really good radar pic of the storm over NYC





NICE banding....
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049
514. Levi32 6:00 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Record Report
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on February 26, 2010


... Record monthly maximum snowfall set at Central Park NY...

An all time monthly record snowfall of 35.9 inches was set at
Central Park NY as of 12:00 PM. This breaks the all time
snowiest month record for Central Park. The old record was 30.5
inches set back in March 1896.

Snow continues to fall... and the monthly total for Central Park will
be updated as the day progresses. Central Park snow records date
back to 1869.


Please refer to pnsokx statements for the latest available Central
Park snowfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459
515. TampaTom 6:06 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
¡Sno mas!
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049
516. Floodman 7:01 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
The icebergs is like a grain of salt in the very large ocean body......it will have very little affect if any IMO!!


Don't be too sure...a 60 mile long iceberg, 27 miles wide? That's a fair amount of water locked up
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
517. hydrus 8:38 PM GMT on February 26, 2010    
Quoting Floodman:


Don't be too sure...a 60 mile long iceberg, 27 miles wide? That's a fair amount of water locked up
whats up Flood? they have had some mild winters in New England the past few years. I believe Mother nature is making up for lost time fast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314
519. Levi32 12:51 AM GMT on February 27, 2010    
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Does anyone have an atlantic ocean SST anomaly map from Feb/March of 2005? Because, if I recall correctly, that winter was an El Niño event as well (one which died by late April)...Thanks in advance


I will post an answer to your question in the latest blog. This one is old.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459
520. wunderkidcayman 1:21 AM GMT on February 27, 2010    
hi guys what up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5479
521. marhil 5:04 PM GMT on January 23, 2011    
What is the approximate 1000-500mb thickness value for an all snow storm in the northwest suburbs of Philadelphia ? I read it is around 540dm for State College, Pa. and varies from region to region. Anybody know what it is for the Phila. suburbs ?
Member Since: January 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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