Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Great earthquake rocks Chile; NYC gets 4th greatest snow ever; Xynthia batters Europe
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2010 +2
A great earthquake with magnitude 8.8 rocked the coast of Chile at 6:34 GMT this morning, generating a potentially dangerous tsunami that is racing across the Pacific Ocean. The great quake is the 7th most powerful tremor in world history (Figure 1). Preliminary tsunami wave heights for the California coast near Santa Barbara are 2 - 2.5 feet. The wave is expected to arrive between 12:15 - 12:35 pm PST. The tsunami is expected to arrive in Hawaii between 11:05 - 11:42am HST, with a wave 8.2 feet high expected in Hilo, on the Big Island. A tsunami from the 9.5 Magnitude 1960 earthquake in Chile killed 61 people in Hilo. Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


Figure 1. Wikipedia's list of strongest earthquakes of all-time.

Preliminary tsunami amplitude forecasts:

La Jolla, CA 2.3 ft
Los Angeles, CA 2.0 ft
Malibu, CA 2.6 ft
Pt. San Luis, CA 2.3 ft
Half Moon Bay, CA 2.6 ft
Crescent City, CA 1.7 ft
Morro Bay, CA 2.2 ft
Santa Monica, CA 3.3 ft
San Francisco, CA 0.7 ft
Pismo Beach, CA 4.6 ft

Hilo, HI 8.2 feet 11:5am HST
Honolulu, HI 1.6 ft 11:37am HST
Kahului, HI 7.2 ft 11:26am HST
Nawiliwili, HI 3.0 ft 11:42am HST
Haleiwa 1.6 ft
Kawaihae 2.0 ft

Port Orford, OR 0.7 ft

Moclip, WA 1.3 ft

Seward, AK 1.3 ft
Stika, AK 1.3 ft
Kodiak, AK 2.3 ft

Tofino, British Columbia 1.7 ft

Today's great quake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American plates about 325 km southwest of the capital Santiago (population 5.3 million). The depth was estimated at 35 km. At least four aftershocks of magnitude 6 or higher have occurred, the largest being a 6.9 aftershock. Fortunately, the area close to the epicenter is relatively sparsely populated, but there may be heavy damage in Concepción (est. pop. 300,000) and Chillan (est. pop. 170,000), which lie 115 km and 100 km to the south of the epicenter, respectively.


Figure 2. NOAA's preliminary forecast of tsunami wave energy for today's earthquake. Image credit: NOAA Tsunami Warning Center.

New York City slammed with its 4th largest snowstorm on record
The snow from the fourth extreme snowstorm to wallop the Northeast U.S. this winter dumped a remarkable 20.9" of snow on New York City's Central Park yesterday and Thursday. This is the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park are:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.9" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920

The storm also helped New York City set a new all-time snowfall record for the most snow ever recorded in a month--36.9". The old record was 30.5", set in March 1896. However, the old Lower Manhattan WB Station recorded 37.9" in February 1894. Yesterday's snowstorm puts New York City's snow for the 2009 - 2010 season at 51.4", making it the 11th snowiest winter since 1869. Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, lists the city's all-time seasonal snowfall record at 81.5", set in the winter of 1867 - 1868. This measurement came before official records began in Central Park, and were done be the NY Park Commissioners (see "Annual Report NY Park Commissioners", 1868, by John B. Marie). The second snowiest winter in NYC occurred during the winter of 1995 - 1996, when 75.6" fell.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia battering Portugal and Spain
A powerful 969 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is rapidly intensifying of the coast of Spain, and stands poised to deliver a devastating blow to Portugal, Spain, and France today and tomorrow as it powers through Europe. Sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/hr) were reported today at a Personal Weather Station in Costa del Morte, Spain. The pressure fell to 969 mb as Xynthia passed overhead. For comparison, Winter Storm Klaus had a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Models predict that Xynthia will continue to intensify today, reaching 962 mb as it moves into the west coast of France Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 50 - 65 mph (80 - 105 km/hr) with hurricane-force gusts up to 100 mph (160 km/hr) are possible along the north coast of Spain tonight and the west coast of France on Sunday as Xynthia barrels through. The storm is also bringing an exceptionally moist plume of tropical moisture ashore, as seen in precipitable water imagery from NOAA (Figure 4). This moisture is likely to cause moderate to severe flooding in portions of Europe over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image at 12 GMT of Xynthia.


Figure 4. Satellite measurements show a region of extremely high atmospheric moisture is associated with Winter Storm Xynthia. This moisture will surge over Portugal and Spain today, potentially creating serious flooding. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS.

Links to follow:
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar

Jeff Masters
Central Park 26Feb10 (MickyDee)
the BIG one Taken in Manhattan
Central Park 26Feb10
Tree 1, House 0 (Backbaybob)
This cottage was no match for 65 mph wind and an old pine tree.
Tree 1, House 0
Categories: Winter Weather
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751. drg0dOwnCountry 6:20 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!

Rep. Tom Perriello tells ‘spineless’ Senate to get ‘its head out of its rear end’ and confront climate crisis
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939
754. bcn 6:27 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Xynthia, near 60 deads, flooding, ...

CNN
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755. Patrap 6:27 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
I just post um Doug,I dont write um..LOL

But I do agree with the article,accu has a edge for silliness and Hype.

Or the FOX syndrome as we call it here..

I hope the article didnt upset your Love for the accuweather site.

You can contact the writer and dish it to Him.

Im full.

LOL again.

Snowpocalypse to snowicane: Hype reigns in winter
By GENARO C. ARMAS Associated Press Writer 2010 The Associated Press
Feb. 27, 2010, 1:32PM




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756. Chicklit 6:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
The weather here has improved enough for a short motorcycle ride.
HaSpruce Creek Fly-In, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
61.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 2.0 mphfrom the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Have a nice afternoon everyone.
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757. Patrap 6:31 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
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759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:50 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting altesticstorm10:
StormW, would you agree with me that the Gulf is too cold? If this hurricane season wants a chance, the Gulf better heat up in a hurry...?



2/27/2010


2/27/2009


Notice how the Gulf is well colder than it was this time last year, and the E-Pac is much warmer this year than last. Could this mean an even more below-average hurricane season this year than last year?
they first come nw carb this season and sw western atlantic gom is running low if a lack of cloudiness devs. for spring warm up will begin if there is excessive cloudiness with periods of weather then warming will take longer inhibiting poss early systems exception being nw carb and sw western atlantic as it stands right now
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760. Patrap 6:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    

Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


What is a seiche..?(pronounced "saysh")

Like water sloshing in a bathtub, seiches are tide-like rises and drops in Great Lakes coastal water levels caused by prolonged strong winds that push water toward one side of the lake, causing the water level to rise on the downwind side of the lake and to drop on the upwind side. When the wind stops, the water sloshes back and forth, with the nearshore water level rising and falling in decreasingly small amounts on both sides of the lake until it reaches equilibrium.

Or one big ol Earthquake 4500 Miles away..!!



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762. Patrap 6:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
The longest natural period for a seiche in an enclosed rectangular body of water is usually represented by the Merian formula:



where L is the length, h the average depth of the body of water, and g the acceleration of gravity.[4]

Higher order harmonics are also observed. The period of the second harmonic will be half the natural period, the period of the third harmonic will be a third of the natural period, and so forth.


A seiche (pronounced /ˈseɪʃ/ "saysh") is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water.

Seiches and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, swimming pools, bays, and seas. The key requirement for formation of a seiche is that the body of water be at least partially bounded, allowing the formation of the standing wave.

The term was promoted by the Swiss hydrologist François-Alphonse Forel in 1890, who was the first to make scientific observations of the effect in Lake Geneva, Switzerland. The word originates in a Swiss French dialect word that means "to sway back and forth", which had apparently long been used in the region to describe oscillations in alpine lakes.
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764. Patrap 7:00 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Texas and Louisiana,NOLA included had snow Xmas Day Dec 2004.

Dennis,Cindy,Katrina and Rita struck the N GOM coast in 2005

Time to start watching the ants and Squirrels almost.
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765. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:02 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    

Rep. Tom Perriello tells ‘spineless’ Senate to get ‘its head out of its rear end’ and confront climate crisis

Action: Quote | Ignore User


burning trees branches and leaves is a natural way of renewal

Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511
766. misanthrope 7:03 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!

It amazes me how "in your face" some of the folks that post here are. But, forget about that and forget about global warming; how about local air quality or maybe the local kid with asthma? This is from Burning Issues:

"Biomass Burning is a problem of long standing. Huge amounts of air pollution are produced worldwide by the annual burning of 3 billion metric tons of biomass such as wood, leaves, trees, grass and trash (Abelson). Biomass burning represents the largest source of air pollution in many rural areas of the developed and developing world. Biomass burning is used create heat, to clear forests, to dispose of leaves, crop stubble, trash and wood. Globally, biomass burning is estimated to produce 40 percent of the carbon dioxide, 32 percent of the carbon monoxide, 20 percent of the particulates, and 50 percent of the highly carcinogenic poly-aromatic hydrocarbons produced by all sources (Levine).

The ill-health effects of biomass burning are well-established. Smoke from biomass burning is particularly dangerous since most of the particulates are smaller than 10 microns in size (PM10) and are easily able to travel deep into the lungs. Numerous studies have noted that increasing levels of PM10 (even if below the US EPA standard of 50 micrograms PM10 per cubic meter of air) can significantly increase levels of respiratory and heart problems (Morris, Schwela) [and are linked with a sudden death rate of approximately 5 percent at that level. ed]. About 95 percent of this burning is set by people, although lightning sometimes ignites fields and forests (Levine)."


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767. Patrap 7:04 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Darn the EPA,full throttle ahead..!!,let dere be Fire..!!!




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768. Orcasystems 7:06 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
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770. misanthrope 7:07 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Darn the EPA,full throttle ahead..!!,let dere be Fire..!!!

And Smoke too..!!

LOL

I've heard that all of that cane smoke down in Louisiana is part of what makes you Cajun types so tough. Any truth to the rumor?
Member Since: February 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 449
771. JRRP 7:10 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
analog years
1998

1995

1966

1958


muchos ciclones tropicales logran alcanzar los 55w o 60w sin llegar los 20n

Many tropical cyclones manage to reach 55w or 60w without coming 20n
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772. gordydunnot 7:11 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
I am never one to start anything, but does anyone think there will be a sequel to the movie (there will be blood) at tonight s Gold metal game.I hope not, but there will surely be some hitting, not for the faint of heart.
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773. AllyBama 7:12 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Time to start watching the ants and Squirrels almost.

so, what do I look for? bushy tails?..lol
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774. Patrap 7:13 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting misanthrope:

I've heard that all of that cane smoke down in Louisiana is part of what makes you Cajun types so tough. Any truth to the rumor?




No..its the carcinogens from the Catcrackers that make crude into Unleaded,ethylene Plants,..and the other Outgassing that occurs between Baton Rouge and the Mouth of the River.

Cancer Alley, Louisiana



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
775. atmoaggie 7:15 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting misanthrope:

It amazes me how "in your face" some of the folks that post here are. But, forget about that and forget about global warming; how about local air quality or maybe the local kid with asthma? This is from Burning Issues:

"Biomass Burning is a problem of long standing. Huge amounts of air pollution are produced worldwide by the annual burning of 3 billion metric tons of biomass such as wood, leaves, trees, grass and trash (Abelson). Biomass burning represents the largest source of air pollution in many rural areas of the developed and developing world. Biomass burning is used create heat, to clear forests, to dispose of leaves, crop stubble, trash and wood. Globally, biomass burning is estimated to produce 40 percent of the carbon dioxide, 32 percent of the carbon monoxide, 20 percent of the particulates, and 50 percent of the highly carcinogenic poly-aromatic hydrocarbons produced by all sources (Levine).

The ill-health effects of biomass burning are well-established. Smoke from biomass burning is particularly dangerous since most of the particulates are smaller than 10 microns in size (PM10) and are easily able to travel deep into the lungs. Numerous studies have noted that increasing levels of PM10 (even if below the US EPA standard of 50 micrograms PM10 per cubic meter of air) can significantly increase levels of respiratory and heart problems (Morris, Schwela) [and are linked with a sudden death rate of approximately 5 percent at that level. ed]. About 95 percent of this burning is set by people, although lightning sometimes ignites fields and forests (Levine)."



Yeah, and filling our landfills with yard debris and letting the plastics run out to sea to spin around for decades in a gyre is smart.

Plus, CO2 from burning leaves was going to be released anyway. Could have released some extra by trucking it to a landfill and all of the heavy equipment used there...burning it really is better on the CO2 emissions front. Also better to burn it than letting it get in a waterway, thereby depleting oxygen there.

Pretty in your face about a guy burning leaves in a rural area, yourself, at that.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
776. Patrap 7:18 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
And we all contribute every time we buy a gallon of Fuel too.

But those Co2 and Methane Pixies and Fairies still come out every night,Wave dem magic Harry Potter Wands and make the Atmosphere "sparkle" Like a Gum commercial.


WUnderful cycle we have going 24/7/365 globally.

Im so relieved.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
777. Patrap 7:19 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Yeah,smoke if ya got um My Senior D.I. always said.


Im gonna go contribute by lighting my BBQ pit cuz I want to cook some Thick Steaks and some Canadian Bacon as we got a Hockey Gold Medal to collect this afternoon.

LOL

Go USA..!!!!!!!!!!

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778. gordydunnot 7:22 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Hey Pat where did the caveman park his hummer. Oh never mind.
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779. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:26 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah,,smoke um if ya got um.

LOL
just did that o well i'll have another
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511
780. drg0dOwnCountry 7:26 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey Pat where did the caveman park his hummer. Oh never mind.


Goodbye, Hummer
The world might be saved: It looks as if the Hummer is destined for the junkyard.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939
781. Patrap 7:27 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Dunno gordy,but even China Backed out on Buying Hummer.

Dat says a lot in my book.

As we build um here in N. Louisiana.
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782. Patrap 7:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting CycloneOz:


8:00 AM? The eyewall of Dolly was still 4 hours out. I assure you, Cantore was inside during the eyewall. We stayed at the same hotel.


Thats why Jim gets the Big Bucks,..he's wise nuff to stay out the way.

LOL
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783. misanthrope 7:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, and filling our landfills with yard debris and letting the plastics run out to sea to spin around for decades in a gyre is smart.

Plus, CO2 from burning leaves was going to be released anyway. Could have released some extra by trucking it to a landfill and all of the heavy equipment used there...burning it really is better on the CO2 emissions front. Also better to burn it than letting it get in a waterway, thereby depleting oxygen there.

Pretty in your face about a guy burning leaves in a rural area, yourself, at that.


Hmm, ever hear of composting and recycling? And as I said, it's not about the CO2, it's about the air pollution in general.

I guess if you're used to breathing the stuff you may not mind so much but you might want to think about your children.

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784. misanthrope 7:32 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
.
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785. drg0dOwnCountry 7:34 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Berlin
Wind Speed: 23.0 kts.
Wind Gust: 72 km/h / 20.1 m/s
Pressure: 985 hPa (Falling)
12 °C

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939
786. hydrus 7:34 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


Thats why Jim gets the Big Bucks,..he's wise nuff to stay out the way.

LOL
If Dolly was a slower moving storm, I believe she would have rapidly intensified before landfall. It was bad, but could have been much worse.jmo
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787. hydrus 7:35 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
.
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788. all4hurricanes 7:36 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting gordydunnot:
I am never one to start anything, but does anyone think there will be a sequel to the movie (there will be blood) at tonight s Gold metal game.I hope not, but there will surely be some hitting, not for the faint of heart.

I drink your milkshake!!!
I never saw the movie but I know that quote
Anyway I heard Xynthia has an "eye" does someone have a decent picture of that (all the satellite pics are dark)
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789. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:38 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
may the best team win
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790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:41 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Berlin
Wind Speed: 23.0 kts.
Wind Gust: 72 km/h / 20.1 m/s
Pressure: 985 hPa (Falling)
12 °C

little windy there today huh warm at 12c today
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511
791. drg0dOwnCountry 7:44 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
little windy there today huh warm at 12c today

There was just a wind gust i think maybe 50. But now calm again. Yes very warm, 12c is spring weather.
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792. PcolaDan 7:45 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Anyway I heard Xynthia has an "eye" does someone have a decent picture of that (all the satellite pics are dark)


Best I can find.

Link

Link

Link
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793. drg0dOwnCountry 7:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
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794. Ighuc 7:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Anyway I heard Xynthia has an "eye" does someone have a decent picture of that (all the satellite pics are dark)


I had been looking for a radar loop in lieu of satetlite and this is the best one I could come up with:

http://www.sat24.com/

Does anyone else have better?
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795. Patrap 7:50 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    

Chile Earthquake PICTURES: Twitter Photos Record The Wreckage In Chile (PHOTOS)


Pictures of the Chile earthquake that hit yesterday are streaming in--from news organizations, reporters on the ground, and from citizens in Chile hit by the disaster.

In the aftermath of the magnitude-8.8 quake, Twitter has become a prime outlet for people hit by the Chile earthquake to share pictures of the wreckage, as well as information and updates about relief efforts, destruction, and developments.

Amateur photographers have taken to the streets to show the world, via Twitter. what they are witnessing. Earthquake pictures posted by Twitter users in Chile record apartment buildings split in half, crumbling churches, and freeways ripped apart by the force of the earthquake.

See some of the photos of the earthquake in Chile that have been shared via Twitter below.
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796. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:50 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

There was just a wind gust i think maybe 50. But now calm again. Yes very warm, 12c is spring weather.

ya spring is coming 21 days away now
winter is on the way out
what ever we get now will melt fast
getting too warm been above freezing since midnight sat morn till now snow that fell is melting very fast sign that it won't last as spring comes to pass
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797. drg0dOwnCountry 7:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya spring is coming 21 days away now
winter is on the way out
what ever we get now will melt fast
getting to warm been above freezing since midnight sat morn till now snow that fell is melting very fast sign that it won't last as spring comes to pass

All snow has melt here since monday.
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798. drg0dOwnCountry 7:56 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
See some of the photos of the earthquake in Chile that have been shared via Twitter below.

There have been around 80 aftershaocks above 4.9M. so far. This can go on for a few weeks.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939
799. hydrus 7:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good day all

lots of pissing in the wind going on here i see be careful wind can blow that stuff all over ya if ya don't do it right
Some dig it. :)
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800. xcool 8:01 PM GMT on February 28, 2010    
gomx start too heat uppp
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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