Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010 | +2 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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The name used the most (at least with the same spelling) is ARLENE (seven
times), while FRANCES and FLORENCE have been used six times each. However,
considering variant spellings of the same name, DEBBIE/DEBBY has been used
seven times, and ANNA/ANA has been used eight times. The first name to
be called into use five times was EDITH, but that name hasn't been used
since 1971. After the 1996 season, LILI has the distinction of being the
first "L" name to be used three times, while MARCO is the first "M" name
to be used more than once.
Link
Quotes from article.
The Earth's seasons have shifted back in the calendar year, with the hottest and coldest days of the years now occurring almost two days earlier, a new study finds.
"Once we have accounted for the fact that the temperature averaged over any given year is increasing, we find that some months have been warming more than other months," said Alexander Stine, a graduate student at UC Berkeley. "We were surprised to find that over land, most of the difference in the warming of one month relative to another is simply the result of this shift in the timing of the seasons, and a decrease in the difference between summer and winter temperatures."
Edit: these quotes are from the news article.
Gag me with a spoon. The research article is supposed to be by Stine, but the link I gave is to an article by some guy named Thomson.
Anyone know what the models say about it? Just eyeballing it, I'd say move WNW till just before the Phillipenes, then go out to sea or sheared to death.
It does Relix. But looking at some of the posts from last year at this time, a lot of bloggers said the same thing. And when the GFS was spitting out Hurricanes towards the end of April, this blog really went crazy. We will have a better idea the beginning of May of what this season may bring. Although what some of the knowledgeable bloggers have posted, I tend, at this time, to agree we will have an active season.
I like your post. No need to get carried away in March.
Link
Shucks. And here I am, driving nails into my walls and shutters already.
LOL.
How you going, Babbit?
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Tropical Low, Former Ului
11:00 AM EST March 21 2010
=====================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low, Former Ului (1001 hPa) located at 20.6S 147.3E or 40 kms west southwest of Bowen and 60 kms west of Collinsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului is located west of Collinsville, and continuing to move further inland. The cyclone has weakened rapidly, and is now below cyclone strength.
DAMAGING winds are no longer expected.
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.
DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.
Cyclone Watches
===============
The Cyclone WARNING from Ayr to Bowen, including adjacent inland areas has been cancelled.
I edited that statement for delicate sensibilities.
If the work needs to be done, then it needs to be done.
In SE Arlington, TX, we're getting moderate snow, 34F, with a stiff NW wind at 20MPH, G to 30MPH!!
And it is in the 60's in New York City, NY!!
That last Kelvin wave really widened the spread..
Take picture to share with us
But in a mad sort of way, I envy you your freezing.
We are broiling here. Smoke, ash, no water, etc.
There must be a middle ground somewhere, LOL.
* From: AAP
* March 21, 2010 12:06PM
AIR-CONDITIONERS were sucked out of walls as Cyclone Ului hit islands off the Queensland coast.
Ului was a category three cyclone packing winds of 200km/h when it crossed the coast near Airlie Beach in the Whitsundays early this morning.
Premier Anna Bligh said some residents had a pretty hairy time, especially those on the islands.
"Some of the islands have seen airconditioners sucked out of the walls," she said, before heading off on a tour of cyclone-affected communities.
"That's the force of the wind that came through, so I think they've had a pretty scary night."
She said some homes had also lost their roofs.
"We have a handful of roofs off houses that we know about, but as assessment crew go through, that may increase."
The premier said the cyclone, which has since been downgraded to a rain depression, had caused severe damage in pockets but it was not a catastrophic event.
She said assessment teams would spend the day flying over the region and would have a better idea of the scale of the damage by Sunday evening.
Ms Bligh will fly to Proserpine, close to where the cyclone made landfall, with Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts.
Felicity Moore
Sunday, March 21, 2010 at 10:11am
The brute force of category 3 Cyclone Ului crashed into Queensland’s coastline yesterday, lashing Mackay and Airlie Beach with galeforce winds and torrential rains. My parents live in Mackay and last night they spent a terrifying night listening to the howling winds and pounding rains rattling the windows and shaking the foundations of their house.
“The winds were just incredible, certainly the worst that I’ve ever lived through,” said my father, Richard Shea, an unflappable former pilot and trawler fisherman who now operates his own driving school. “By around 2am the winds were up around 110km/hr. It was terrifying,” he said. “I could feel the house shaking at times, and I just thought if one piece (of the roof) peels off, we’re gone here, the whole roof will go.”
As their home of 25 years shuddered and shook around them last night my parents spent sleepless hours waiting in the dark, wondering if the walls would withstand Ului’s onslaught. This morning’s reports reveal wind speeds reached up to 200km/hr as Ului crossed the coast at Airlie Beach, just 200km north of Mackay.
My parents’ four-bedroom highset house survived the recent Mackay flooding that saw many residents lose their homes. It has survived cyclones Charlie (which closed my school down for the day and gave us all the day off back in 1988) and Justin (in 1997) which unroofed houses around us. But Dad said this experience exceeded those for ferocity and intensity.
“The (end flap of the canvas) roof over the patio was flapping in the wind; it sounded like a whip cracking; like firecrackers going off. Steve (the neighbour over the road) rang at 2am and asked if we were OK. He wanted to know if he could come over and help me with anything. It was unbelievably loud, the whole neighbourhood would have heard it. Dennis (the neighbour behind Mum and Dad’s house) rang this morning to see if we’re okay. I’m surprised we didn’t get more calls, actually,” Dad said. The canvas roof has been shredded and all but blown off. But that’s pretty much the extent of the damage done to the house.
“We’re one of the very lucky few,” Dad said. “We woke up this morning still with power. It was getting pretty hairy around two to three in the morning when the wind really picked up. The power flickered a few times but it stayed on. Once you get over 100km that’s really whistling. The rain’s just horizontal and the wind sounds like a roar,” he said.
“The airport is closed although I heard on the radio this morning flights are expected to resume later this morning. And I just heard on the radio that Bushman’s Bakery, which is over on Evans Avenue (North Mackay), is giving away all its product because it doesn’t have electricity to keep things cool. So if you want a pie or sausage roll just drive up and you can have whatever you want.”
“It was the worst cyclone I’ve lived through. The next worst one was probably Cyclone Justin and it only brought winds up to about 80km/hr,” he said. “It was frightening. Because there’s nothing you can do. And it’s dark. I thought if the roof goes what will we do? I didn’t have an answer, I didn’t know.”
To hear my dad talk of being frightened is an incredible thing. This is a man who has lived through a plane crash (when he was a pilot, crop dusting) and being lost at sea (when he was a trawler fisherman and the boat sank). He’s an element of nature all on his own, an immovable, solid force. He never gets worked up about anything. Never shows nerves, never seems to fear anything. When you’ve stared death in the face, close enough to count the pores, well, not much else could stack up as a scarey experience. And this cyclone had him shaking in his boots.
Dad owns and operates A-Plus Driving School and expects that he’ll get a closer look at any damage the town sustained in the coming days as he’s back to teaching teenagers how to drive.
There’s no television being broadcast in Mackay today. My friend Carrie Cox, mother to three children, lives in Glenella and seems to be without power today. I’ve been unable to get through to her, but did receive this text about an hour ago: “No Facebook, no coffee. Just fighting kids. This is the devastation they don’t tell you about.” She’s a funny bugger.
When I was a kid growing up in Mackay we would be threatened by cyclones on a regular basis. The most memorable for me was Charlie in 1988, which as I mentioned closed schools for the day. It turned into a rain depression before it made landfall near Ayr, and we barely got any wind from it. In 1990 Cyclone Joy caused a little damage, including the unusual event of a tornado, which damaged buildings and houses in the area.
Cyclones were a bit exciting back then. Dad would run around picking loose items up from the yard, taping windows and Mum would stock up on water, batteries and tinned goods. We would imagine days of living in the dark, eating baked beans and sandbagging to keep the water at bay.
Of course, it never worked out that way. Every cyclone to threaten Mackay in the years I spent living there, turned into a rain event before making landfall. We would get some rain, which always pleased the cane cockies, but no destructive winds. We were very lucky. Last year it felt like Mackay’s luck had run out with the devastating floods. But maybe its luck is back in again, emerging from this cyclone with just a few scrapes.
Proserpine
Hamilton Island
NORTH Queensland residents cleaning up damage from Cyclone Ului now face the prospect of flooding with heavy rain reported in the area.
Authorities have described damage from the Cyclone as moderate - with homes damaged, boats washed ashore, trees down and 60,000 homes without power.
But the Bureau of Meteorology this morning delivered more bad news for the region - with warnings of moderate to major flooding in the Pioneer River around Mirani.
The bureau said some areas in the Proserpineand Pioneer River catchments had received more than 100mm overnight, and said moderate to heavy rainfall associated with the cyclone was forecast for coastal areas between Townsville and Yeppoon today.
It warned that flash flooding and fast river rises were likely with heavier falls during the day.
A Courier-Mail team in the area reported "unbelievably heavy" rain at around 10.30am between Mackay and Midge Point, but that had eased slightly by just before 11am.
The road to Midge Point was cut by floodwaters and fallen trees.
'Significant, not catastrophic'
Premier Anna Bligh told the Seven Network earlier today:``We are characterising it as a significant event with severe damage in some pockets, but not a catastrophic event".
She said the damage assessment had only just begun and it was clear some residents had been hit hard.
`We know already that there are reports of a number of houses completely unroofed,'' she said, adding that with winds still high, help would be some time away for those families.
Ms Bligh said the focus now was on the flood risk from heavy rain associated with the weather system.
``There is still a lot of rain in this system and we are watching very carefully to see if that now turns into a flooding event. We're certainly not out of the woods yet.''
Ului crossed the coast as a category three system with winds of 200km/h near Airlie Beach early this morning.
It has since been downgraded to a category one and is weakening as it heads inland.
Forecasters expect it to deteriorate into a rain depression by this afternoon.
Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts says there's been some structural damage to homes, such as broken windows, leaks and damaged roofs.
``The early reports we're getting in is minor to moderate damage in a number of homes, power outages across the region,'' he told the ABC.
``The SES had about 600 calls so far but we are expecting that to escalate significantly'' as the day progresses, he said.
Mr Roberts said communities had been well prepared for Ului and that had helped limit the damage.
The storm's winds brought down trees and powerlines across a wide area, with blackouts homes between Mackay, Proserpine and Collinsville.
I'll keep posting as more come in.
My camera is not cooperating! I took a few pics, they did not come out very well, plus when I tried to download them, the entire SD card, with 1500 pics, wanted to re-post on my computer!!
Here is a list of the recent reports out of the Greater DFW, TX reporting stations:
Location Time
(cdt) Sky/Weather Temp.
(ºF) Dewpt.
(ºF) Humidity
(%) Wind
(mph) Pressure
(in)
Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy 33 30 89 NW 23 G 30 30.11
Dallas Love Field 20:53 Light Snow and Breezy 34 29 82 NW 21 G 33 30.12
Dallas Executive Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 32 29 88 NW 18 G 31 30.11
Dallas / Addison Airport 19:50 Overcast 34 28 81 NW 20 G 29 30.11
Grand Prairie Municipal Airport 20:50 Snow 34 30 87 NW 17 G 29 30.14
Collin County Regional Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 33 29 85 NW 16 G 26 30.09
Arlington Municipal Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 33 29 85 NW 18 G 25 30.14
Denton Municipal Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 31 29 92 NW 18 G 29 30.13
Fort Worth Alliance Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 34 29 82 NW 16 30.13
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 32 29 88 NW 18 G 28 30.14
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station 20:52 Light Snow and Breezy 34 29 82 NW 22 G 30 30.20
Mineral Wells Airport 20:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist 33 29 85 NW 16 G 23 30.17
Terrell Municipal Airport 20:53 Overcast 37 27 67 NW 20 G 31 30.09
Gainesville Municipal Airport 20:46 Light Snow 34 28 81 NW 20 G 26 30.12
Waco Regional Airport 20:51 Overcast and Breezy 37 26 65 NW 21 G 32 30.17
Click on location name for the weather during the past two days at that site.
90% of Australian live on the coast. It's probably the same the world over. Sometimes people get lucky, and sometimes not.
I have lived in southeast Florida all my life and have gone through many Hurricanes. The worst Hurricane I went through was Wilma, which came in through the West Coast. So I really don't get your point.
While everybody was arguing about the house, we forgot to put out the fire...again.
You can thank El Nino for that more than C02, I'd wager :)
1969 ????
There's always something. I prefer a south TX hurricane possibility (that I can escape from by leaving well ahead) to living as I did previously in the midwest and driving/walking on ice and snow or heading for the basement to escape a possible tornado.
Lessons will be learned,info will be logged,..those in the impact Zone have only hours before nightfall arrives.
Look at ITCZ .mmm
Taco :0)
Real-Time
Here we go again with idiotic statements. Saw this argument last year.
Can't live here, hurricanes, not there tornado alley, oops earthquakes, well golly look at the flooding going on here...
Doesn't matter that cities on the coast have historically been the backbone of trade in this country. Once the ports aren't viable, the whole population should move. blah blah blah
"We estimate that no one is in danger in the area but we have started an evacuation plan and between 500 and 600 people are being evacuated" Sigurgeir Gudmundsson of the Icelandic civil protections department said.
Public broadcaster RUV reported that the eruption had started shortly after midnight and that the area's main road had been closed.
A volcano in the area of the Eyjafjallajokull glacier last erupted in 1821 and 1823
Winter type wx is basically lost its mystique for me at this point...
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