Red River rising: 18th consecutive year of flooding--why?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.


Figure 1. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: landform factors
According the U.S. Geological Survey, the unique landform characteristics of the Red River Valley make it highly susceptible to flooding. These factors include:

1) A relatively shallow and meandering river channel--a shallow channel holds less water and the meandering can cause flow to slow down as the channel makes its turns, causing over-bank flooding.

2) A gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile) that inhibits channel flow and encourages overland flooding or water "ponding" (especially on even, saturated ground) in the basin.

3) The northerly direction of flow--flow in the Red River travels from south (upstream) to north (downstream). The direction of flow becomes a critical factor in the spring when the southern (upstream) part of the Red River has thawed and the northern (downstream) part of the channel is still frozen. As water moves north toward the still frozen river channel, ice jams and substantial backwater flow and flooding can occur.


Figure 2. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota through time. The two largest flow rates occurred last year (2009), and in 1997. The projected crest for Sunday (red circle) would be fourth greatest flood since reliable records began in 1901. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for this year's flood: highly unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS also cites five weather factors that can act to enhance flooding along the Red River. All five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 22nd wettest fall in the 115-year record in 2009.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had a November that was much warmer than average, followed by a sudden plunge to below-zero temperatures by the second week of December. This froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. North Dakota had a top 15% winter for precipitation, with the period December 2009 - February 2010 ranking 15th wettest in the past 115 years.

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Precipitation for March 1 - 18 has been 1.41", compared to the average of 0.61".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. High temperatures in Fargo have averaged 6°F warmer than normal for March 1 - 18.

Urbanization increases flooding
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Building levees and flood defenses increases flood peaks
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, proposed improvements to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Precipitation is increasing
As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007). This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). Precipitation over the Red River drainage basin increased by about 10 - 20% during the 20th Century (Figure 3.) The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. These are the type of events most likely to cause flooding. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.


Figure 3. Change in precipitation over the U.S. between 1900 - 2000, from the U.S. Cooperative network. Precipitation in the Red River drainage area increased by 10 - 20% over the 20th century. Image credit: Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends (Groisman et al., 2002).

The future of flooding
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Red River Flood 2006 (mw25)
The water level of the Red River when I took this photo was 47.2 feet, 19.2 feet above flood stage and the 6th highest level in Grand Forks' history. The river is expected to crest at 47.4 feet on Wednesday morning. Luckily, no homes have been lost in the Grand Forks area as of yet due to the flooding.
Red River Flood 2006
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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Pat your last video gives me pause in the better to be dead than red debate.
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Being uneducated...I posted to early before seeing your response. I apologize.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Levi...You were certainly wrong on the long-range forecast and strength of Cyclone Ului, you changed it many times, but again, I ask, are you sticking to your forecast of an early start to the Atlantic Hurricane season?


I can't tell if you're being funny or not lol.

Yes I was wrong on Ului. She was not expected to move as slowly as she did, thus spending nearly twice as much time over self-upwelled water than was expected by the models. This caused her core to collapse 6 hours before her convection could re-fire, decoupling her from the upper high and forcing her to start from scratch. This task is much harder than what she would have had to do if she had maintained her core, so she will not be able to strengthen to Cat 2 like I thought.

I did make that forecast 5 days before landfall you know :P I try to stick to my prediction unless I see strong evidence otherwise, which I saw after her core collapsed. I did not change it many times though...I changed the landfall location once and the intensity once during a 5 day period lol.
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Levi...You were certainly wrong on the long-range forecast and strength of Cyclone Ului, you changed it many times, but again, I ask, are you sticking to your forecast of an early start to the Atlantic Hurricane season?
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Quoting xcool:


OK, xcool, we give up! Does that image have something to do with El Niño?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We have Levi on record for an early start to the season. I know it's early, but from what you see, when can possibly see our first named storm?


Well we have had a storm form in May for the last 3 years in a row, and with the very favorable atmospheric conditions forecast to set up over the SW Atlantic (shear is already below normal), we could have a shot at another one this year.

That said, I want to see how western Caribbean and gulf SSTs look by early May. If they don't warm up as fast as we think from their currently frigid temps, then that could hamper early activity, as those are the areas where most early-season named storms form. Keep in mind that despite the record warm waters in the eastern Atlantic, it is unlikely that we will see anything form way out there during May or June.

Overall right now I think there is fairly high potential for a named storm in May or June, but we will know more after monitoring conditions through early May.

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355. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:

That and I forget what I say 10 minutes after I say it.


I find that hard to believe! I have seen you repeat what someone has said from their previous blogs, practically verbatim. Come on Atmo, don't play coy. That is why I choose my words carefully with you. LOLOL or the Chinese version: #
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Im, "We're' only happy when it rainnnnnnnnnnnnnnn's,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
We have Levi on record for an early start to the season. I know it's early, but from what you see, when can possibly see our first named storm?
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One can chat here 24/7/365..but ALL chat is recorded for the protection of all users.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Patrap:
One can post any Link not locked in any wu chat.

We do it during the Daily Downpour Wunderground Show twice a week.

Tuesdays and Thursdays at 1pm PDT



Yeah, well you still can't post images and I think most people prefer the blog's layout, quoting ability, and easy archived message access. WU has the best blogging forum I have ever seen.
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One can post any Link not locked in any wu chat.

We do it during the Daily Downpour Wunderground Show twice a week.

Tuesdays and Thursdays at 1pm PDT

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Grothar:


I assume you mean in the chat rooms? Not really. It becomes active during the season. Besides, I believe most people want to chat on the blog so more people can see the insults we heap upon each other. More fun that way.

That and I forget what I say 10 minutes after I say it.
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Quoting Grothar:



/
&
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Quoting Grothar:


I assume you mean in the chat rooms? Not really. It becomes active during the season. Besides, I believe most people want to chat on the blog so more people can see the insults we heap upon each other. More fun that way.


The blogs are much better for informational posts. After all you can't even post images or html code in chat.
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343. Grothar

..U betcha..LOL
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Levi has me on record as being uneducated. I appreciate your honest opinion! I look forward to following your forecasts for this upcoming Hurricane season.


The future awaits ;)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Grothar, do people still chat anymore?


I assume you mean in the chat rooms? Not really. It becomes active during the season. Besides, I believe most people want to chat on the blog so more people can see the insults we heap upon each other. More fun that way.
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Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences and indicators of global climate change. From Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 we know mean sea level has risen by about three millimeters a year since 1993. This is about twice the estimates from tide gauges for the previous century, indicating a possible recent acceleration. OSTM/Jason-2 will further monitor this trend and allow us to better understand year-to-year variations.


The speedup of ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica is a wild card in predicting future sea level rise. Measurements from Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2, coupled with information from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) mission, will provide crucial information on the relative contributions of glacier melting and ocean heating to sea level change.

Earth's oceans are a thermostat for our planet, keeping it from heating up quickly. More than 80 percent of the heat from global warming over the past 50 years has been absorbed by the oceans. Scientists want to know how much more heat the oceans can absorb, and how the warmer water affects Earth's atmosphere. OSTM/Jason-2 will help them better calculate the oceans' ability to store heat.

The mission will also allow us to better understand large-scale climate phenomena like El Nio and La Nia, which can have wide-reaching effects.

OSTM/Jason-2 data will be used in applications as diverse as, for example, routing ships, improving the safety and efficiency of offshore industry operations, managing fisheries, forecast-ing hurricanes and monitoring river and lake levels.

OSTM/Jason-2's primary payload includes five instruments similar to those aboard Jason-1, along with three experimental instruments. Its main instrument is an altimeter that precisely measures the distance from the satellite to the ocean surface. Its radiometer measures the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which can distort the altimeter measurements. Three location systems combine to measure the satellite's precise position in orbit. Instrument advances since Jason-1 will allow scientists to monitor the ocean in coastal regions with increased accuracy, almost 50 percent closer to coastlines that are home to nearly half of Earth's population than before. OSTM/Jason-2 is designed to last at least three years.

After its launch from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket, OSTM/Jason-2 will be placed in the same orbit (1,336 kilometers) as Jason-1 at an inclination of 66 degrees to the equator. It will repeat its ground track every 10 days, covering 95 percent of the world's ice-free oceans. A tandem mission with Jason-1 will further improve tide models in coastal and shallow seas and help scientists better understand the dynamics of ocean currents and eddies.

WORDS ...on the Mission.



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Quoting Levi32:


Yes...lol. None of us are, well shall we say, "un-educated" enough to still use Internet Explorer. Lol.


Levi has me on record as being uneducated. I appreciate your honest opinion! I look forward to following your forecasts for this upcoming Hurricane season.
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340. xcool
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Grothar!

Yes, but don't they have single characters that represent whole phrases and sentences? One stroke for a post doesn't sound all that bad.



/
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Jason 2 launch atmo..

US-French craft monitor Earth's Oceans
The Delta II rocket carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Levi32:


Yes...lol. None of us are, well shall we say, "un-educated" enough to still use Internet Explorer. Lol.

Some really do visit on a company machine and are disallowed from using anything else...I suppose the IT guys were looking for job security ;-)
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Quoting Patrap:
The joint NASA/Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales Topex/Poseidon oceanography satellite ceased operations after nearly 62,000 orbits of Earth. The spacecraft lost its ability to maneuver, bringing to a close a successful 13-year mission.

Topex/Poseidon data have helped in hurricane and El Nino/La Nina forecasting, ocean and climate research, ship routing, offshore industries, fisheries management, marine mammals' research, modernizing global tide models and ocean debris tracking.

The satellite's pitch reaction wheel, which helps keep the spacecraft in its proper orbital orientation, stalled on October 9, and ground controllers concluded the wheel was not functioning. The satellite remains in orbit 1,336 kilometers (830 miles) above the Earth, posing no threat to the planet.

Topex/Poseidon's data have been the subject of more than 2,100 research publications; major science and application achievements include:

- the first decade-long global descriptions of seasonal and yearly ocean current changes
- refined scientists' estimates of rising global sea level during the past decade
- provided a new understanding of the role tides play in mixing the deep ocean
- developed the most accurate ever global ocean tides' models
- provided the first global data set to test ocean general circulation model performance
- demonstrated global positioning system measurements in space could determine spacecraft positions with unprecedented accuracy, enabling rapid delivery of data.


The follow-on for that is Jason-2: http://www.osd.noaa.gov/ostm/

Currently operational. Launched in June, '08.
(We use this in our office...get it from NRL at Stennis.)
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Quoting Patrap:


Man,,Im getting slower with my CHinese Grothar..

I need a Mack-O

简体中文版

张贴: JeffMasters, 10:08在2010年3月19日的上午CDT 红河在法戈,北达科他继续上升,当峰顶星期天期望在过去世纪观察的第4最 高的洪水水位。 " Major" 洪水水位是30英尺,在星期三在星期天,超过河和河预计在38英尺附近顶饰, 2.8英尺在之下去年记录集合。 洪水阶段是十八英尺,并且红河在法戈现在到达了洪水阶段十八连贯年,根 ��工程师的美军军团。 在(在1993开始)的这卓越的舒展洪水之前,河在29 90年中充斥了。 今年' s洪水对估计作为在50年和100年洪水之间。 去年' s纪录洪水是100年洪水。 工程师的美军军团在法戈列出红河的10年的洪水水位是10,300立方英尺每秒。 10年的洪水,历史上,有发生的一个10%机会在一特定年。 在最近二十年,红河有八次10年的洪水--一每2.5年,平均。 今年第四年在过去五外面与10年的洪水。 清楚地,充斥沿红河显著增加了在过去二十年。

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:08 AM CDT on March 19, 2010
The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.


You have write that in columns Pat, but good try. LOL The blog would really be stretched.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You stretched the blog again Pat...and no, I am not changing browsers. Am I the only one?


Yes...lol. None of us are, well shall we say, "un-educated" enough to still use Internet Explorer. Lol.
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Quoting Grothar:


We should just be lucky we don't have to type in Chinese: Just think what the blog would look like. And besides, it would take us longer to insult each other.

Here is a little excerpt:

Nah, it looks pretty much like any keyboard, and using it is a piece of cake. All you have to do is adhere closely to the following six hundred steps. You might want to pack a lunch.

(1) Figure out which of the 50,000-plus Chinese characters you want to use. It shouldn't be necessary to point out that each character stands for a word or concept (usually) rather than a sound as in English. However, I did have one guy recently who thought Chinese had 50,000 different sounds and wondered why we English speakers felt we had to scrape by with a few dozen. Also, lest 50,000 characters seem a little extreme, I should point out that you can get by with about 3-4,000.

(2) Try to remember how to pronounce said character. This is fairly simple. Each Chinese character has one syllable, and in Pinyin, the official pronunciation system used in mainland China, there are 403 possible spoken syllables. Syllables can be pronounced with one of four tones (level, rising, falling, and falling-and-rising), each tone giving the syllable a different meaning. The tones account for what many westerners regard as the singsong quality of east Asian speech.


Man,,Im getting slower with my Chinese Grothar..

I need a Mack-O
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Levi32:
I showed this earlier in regards to spring starting up.

These are the temperature anomalies for February and March from the hurricane analog years that occurred during a cold PDO. Notice the cold in the south and east just like this winter.



Now look at those same years but during the months of April and May:



Notice the big warm-up in the center of the country and the gulf coast states. This is the kind of reversal that we are expecting this April for the southeast U.S., and it is clear how it ties into this year's hurricane analogs.

I saw that. Neat.
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You stretched the blog again Pat...and no, I am not changing browsers. Am I the only one?
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Quoting Grothar:


We should just be lucky we don't have to type in Chinese: Just think what the blog would look like.

Grothar!

Yes, but don't they have single characters that represent whole phrases and sentences? One stroke for a post doesn't sound all that bad.
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Quoting bappit:
I don't see how the data you posted is particularly relevant.


I know you don't want to listen to anything that threatens your argument. It's ok. I'm fine with talking tropics again.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol calm down....I have to upload them or they vanish, which is why Atmo had to ask me for the one Dr. Masters posted. And I've just been debating this every day for the past 3 weeks, so I know exactly where I need to go when a certain point is made, most of the time. So yes I'm fast lol.

ESRL NOAA Physical Sciences Division


ya got to remember hes way up north lock away inside suffering from cabin fever in the land of ice and snow


lol
:)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54796
I showed this earlier in regards to spring starting up.

These are the temperature anomalies for February and March from the hurricane analog years that occurred during a cold PDO. Notice the cold in the south and east just like this winter.



Now look at those same years but during the months of April and May:



Notice the big warm-up in the center of the country and the gulf coast states. This is the kind of reversal that we are expecting this April for the southeast U.S., and it is clear how it ties into this year's hurricane analogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The joint NASA/Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales Topex/Poseidon oceanography satellite ceased operations after nearly 62,000 orbits of Earth. The spacecraft lost its ability to maneuver, bringing to a close a successful 13-year mission.

Topex/Poseidon data have helped in hurricane and El Nino/La Nina forecasting, ocean and climate research, ship routing, offshore industries, fisheries management, marine mammals' research, modernizing global tide models and ocean debris tracking.

The satellite's pitch reaction wheel, which helps keep the spacecraft in its proper orbital orientation, stalled on October 9, and ground controllers concluded the wheel was not functioning. The satellite remains in orbit 1,336 kilometers (830 miles) above the Earth, posing no threat to the planet.

Topex/Poseidon's data have been the subject of more than 2,100 research publications; major science and application achievements include:

- the first decade-long global descriptions of seasonal and yearly ocean current changes
- refined scientists' estimates of rising global sea level during the past decade
- provided a new understanding of the role tides play in mixing the deep ocean
- developed the most accurate ever global ocean tides' models
- provided the first global data set to test ocean general circulation model performance
- demonstrated global positioning system measurements in space could determine spacecraft positions with unprecedented accuracy, enabling rapid delivery of data.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, thankful for the return of 80 degree weather that is about to strike Florida. 82-85 degree temps Tomorrow and Sunday, followed by a brief cool down to the lower 70s, with the return of warmer weather by Friday. Should stay that way!


You must live south of me. Might touch 80:

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Mar 19 Tonight
Mostly clear. Low around 55F. Winds light and variable.
Mar 20 Tomorrow
Sunny skies. High around 75F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph.
Mar 20 Tomorrow night
Mostly clear. Low 61F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mar 21 Sunday
A few clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 22 Monday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.
Mar 23 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Mar 24 Wednesday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 25 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 26 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 27 Saturday
Scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 28 Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We have degraded to how fast people can type? I can type fast also, due to good schooling.


We should just be lucky we don't have to type in Chinese: Just think what the blog would look like. And besides, it would take us longer to insult each other.

Here is a little excerpt:

Nah, it looks pretty much like any keyboard, and using it is a piece of cake. All you have to do is adhere closely to the following six hundred steps. You might want to pack a lunch.

(1) Figure out which of the 50,000-plus Chinese characters you want to use. It shouldn't be necessary to point out that each character stands for a word or concept (usually) rather than a sound as in English. However, I did have one guy recently who thought Chinese had 50,000 different sounds and wondered why we English speakers felt we had to scrape by with a few dozen. Also, lest 50,000 characters seem a little extreme, I should point out that you can get by with about 3-4,000.

(2) Try to remember how to pronounce said character. This is fairly simple. Each Chinese character has one syllable, and in Pinyin, the official pronunciation system used in mainland China, there are 403 possible spoken syllables. Syllables can be pronounced with one of four tones (level, rising, falling, and falling-and-rising), each tone giving the syllable a different meaning. The tones account for what many westerners regard as the singsong quality of east Asian speech.
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Carrying, on...


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop,Cyclone Ului
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
I don't see how the data you posted is particularly relevant.
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Real Science in a Real science entry.

Twice as many record-breaking high temperatures have been set compared to record lows across the U.S. in recent decades (see http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/200... ). For future climate, computer models show the ratio climbing to 30:1 by 2150 and 50:1 by 2199.

Day-to-day variability means we still get record cold days, but the record highs are far exceeding the lows.

Gerald "Jerry" Meehl is an NCAR senior scientist. His research includes connecting the solar cycle to subtle changes in weather and climate on Earth; examining the consequences of global warming, including heat waves, droughts, storms, and other weather extremes; regional climate change; and El Niño and other influences of the tropics on global climate.



But dont be discouraged.Smoke um if ya got um..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
311

You are putting words in my mouth.
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We have degraded to how fast people can type? I can type fast also, due to good schooling.
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Bullseye.



Got your radio ready, Pat? (I know you do.)
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Ului has a window to do ,or be all it can be for a time still..as that dryer air is a ways off to the Nw and the SSts ahead to landfall,well..their shelf warm.



So its going to be a interesting next 30 hours as to how it plays out.

Bad Mojo still afoot in that Basin and the warned area for sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, thankful for the return of 80 degree weather that is about to strike Florida. 82-85 degree temps Tomorrow and Sunday, followed by a brief cool down to the lower 70s, with the return of warmer weather by Friday. Should stay that way!


And up with it will come the gulf water temps. Another sign that the season is approaching...I can't believe it's already almost April. I feel like we just hit March last week.
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Also, thankful for the return of 80 degree weather that is about to strike Florida. 82-85 degree temps Tomorrow and Sunday, followed by a brief cool down to the lower 70s, with the return of warmer weather by Friday. Should stay that way!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
Quoting StormW:


That's one thing you have on me...I'm still a hunt and peck guy!

Me too! Goes back to my programming roots...too much special character use to be efficient using the standard operating position.

Though I spend little time "hunting", anymore.
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Quoting bappit:
298

You still don't sound like someone who is 17/18.


I really don't care how old you think I am lol. You're off subject anyway. You haven't given me a reason to not believe the data I posted for you.
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Quoting bappit:
Seems like a nice state of fear you have going there.

Ummm, I was talking about all of the pseudo-science that is out there...you don't think I avoid power lines and cells phones, do you? I think those are a little bit worse than the AGW in realism...as is the notion that smoking isn't unhealthy.

Not every debated phenomenon is an accurate one, as you seemed to be implying.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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