Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010 | +2 |



| Permalink | A A A |
|
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 — Blog Index
Do you have the link to those important graphics?
capitalclimate.blogspot.com
Colin replaces Charley from 04
Fiona replaces Frances from 04
Igor replaces Ivan
Julia replaces Jeanne,all retired from the 2004 season
14R(NONAME)
Chucky777, they names all highs and lows in the Europe region.
Institute of Meteorology (Europe)
[sis boom bah!]
Where did you get my image?
Dis ting here called Google..
Its REALLY Amazing.
Google Images
And the List replaces the 04 Season ,not the 2005 Season as the image claims.
Can you edit the Original ?
er,for the archives.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 14-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion March 22 2010
===================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14R (999 hPa) located at 11.6S 89.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
up to 95 NM in the northern semi-circle and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: 2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.6S 88.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 13.6S 87.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 16.1S 86.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.3S 85.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tropicale Modereé)
Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis give DT 2.5 (curved band at 0.4 over recent infrared radar imagery), MET at 2.0 and PT at 2.5. FT based on PT. ASCAT pass at 15.13z shows some believable 30 knot winds in the northern semi circle and the southwestern quadrant (35-40 knot winds in the northwestern quadrant under deep convection). Based on the previous elements, system is upgraded to tropical depression status. System is currently on the western edge of a weak mid level ridge and just south of the deep (up to 500 hPa) west northwesterly monsoon flow that is established between the equator and 5.0S. Over the next three days, mid level ridge is building to the east of the system as a weakness remains in the subtropical ridge mainly east of 70.0E in the mid to upper level (despite, that close to the surface ridge extends quasi over the whole basin)
Wednesday night, a mid latitude trough is expected to be south of 20S and along 80E enhancing this weakness. COnsequently, system should continue its poleward track.
Available dynamical guidance are in fair agreement with that and current forecast is basically an update of the previous one. System should progressively pass under an upper level ridge with a weakening shear and rather good divergence. Low level inflow remains good poleward and should be better equatorwards. The system should intensify at a climatological rate with this favorable conditions. Thursday, increasing northwesterly shear and cooler waters near 20.0S should start a weakening trend on this system. So it has a 48 hour to 60 hour window for intensification.
ok, I giggled. (no offense, AllStar17)
["Imani"]
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\
What do you mean by this?
Pressures look to be 1mb slower.
If the La Nina does indeed get its act together during the height of the hurricane season, then high pressures over the eastern tropical Pacific will tend to deflect tropical waves and storms that enter the western Caribbean to the WNW or NW, more towards the Gulf of Mexico. This is the nature of La Nina, not allowing as many of the Atlantic tropical waves to cross central America and develop in the eastern Pacific instead. This is what the Euro seems to be showing.
I meant 1mb lower than average
Updated for 2011 (just made):
They predicted some freezing rain for tonight yesteday afternoon, but it's too warm so there are ice pellets, the only type of ice precipitation that falls above freezing.
Very interesting situation setting up. Everything continues to point to a well-above average season. It looks like the ECMWF has gone colder with the La Nina developing at the height of hurricane season as you said.
Afternoon gambler. Nice to hear spring is paying you a visit.
The new March Japanese model forecast is even more bullish, though I think it is a bit overdone.
That does look over done. Right now I think the CFS has the best solution with an ENSO neutral with a cold bias; however, if we do slip into La Nina, then I think the ECMWF has a good handle at the rate at which the transition would occur.
Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Ida, Igor? Anyone noticing a trend?
I agree. I tend to lean towards the Euro as it picked up on the demise of this El Nino 2 months before the CFS did. In January the CFS still had us in an El Nino right until October, while the Euro had us going to central-neutral by the end of July:
*looks into my crystal ball*
I see a wet summer ahead for the gulf coast
Well the trend might have to do with most times we have a I storm its in the peak of hurricane season. Of course the later half of the alphabet will have stronger storms, its in the peak of the season.
It can dry up very quick with summer time heat.
Very nice West-based negative NAO. Favors southeastern U.S. and GOM landfalls
Thats some cool Graphic for sure..
Those could sell..
It's because Frances was a more powerful storm and the second storm in two weeks to make landfall in Florida.
Frances
Jeanne
Thanks! I used Microsoft PowerPoint 2007.
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 — Blog Index