Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)

Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about \$150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do \$300 billion in damage. This number would increase to \$600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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1705. CycloneOz
 Quoting Floodman:I have a few ideas, Oz, if you'd like to discuss them in WUMail, for example...you see, I'm not just the class clown (though it IS my favorite role)I would love to discuss survival strategies with someone of your experience, Flood.You lead out...and I'll certainly contribute.PS: You're about to freak on what I'm prepared to do.
1704. BahaHurican
 Quoting iluvjess:There were no flagpoles left standing in Waveland. The only structures I found still even partially intact were the brick staircases that used to lead to the front of the houses. Brick staircases and sand were left. No debris. I was thinking a flagpole only will work 1) if it's still standing after the hurricane has passed and2)if it's taller tha 30 ft tall.Oz, I'm no stormchaser - I've ridden out the relatively few storms we've had in Nassau in my sturdy concrete brick home - but I can't imagine anyone choosing to stand outside during a cat 5, anywhere. I could at least potentially see a parking deck scenario, but that itself would require specific preps that I'm sure u've thought about. Also, I seriously doubt ur cell / wireless capabilities would last all the way to the arrival of cat 5 winds. If most wx equipment doesn't last much beyond 120 mph winds, I doubt wireless / cell towers will.
1703. Floodman
 Quoting CycloneOz:Well, we'll see. Cat 5s are killers for sure. I still believe that a survival strategy is possible, but like real estate, the key is location, location, location.I have a few ideas, Oz, if you'd like to discuss them in WUMail, for example...you see, I'm not just the class clown (though it IS my favorite role)
1702. CycloneOz
 Quoting iluvjess:Cyclone... none of the examples and strategies that you have mentioned relate to actual CAT 5 damage. I have been on the ground where the eyewall made landfall immediately following the landfall and none of your examples reflect the type of complete and utter anhialation that is done. I think what you are truely wanting to do is to avoid the eyewall which will actually be documenting less than true CAT 5 conditions.Well, we'll see. Cat 5s are killers for sure. I still believe that a survival strategy is possible, but like real estate, the key is location, location, location.
1701. iluvjess
 Cyclone... none of the examples and strategies that you have mentioned relate to actual CAT 5 damage. I have been on the ground where the eyewall made landfall immediately following the landfall and none of your examples reflect the type of complete and utter anhialation that is done. I think what you are truely wanting to do is to avoid the eyewall which will actually be documenting less than true CAT 5 conditions.
1700. BahaHurican
 Quoting TampaTom:I was at a talk with the late Dick Fletcher from Channel 10 here in Tampa. Some guy said if he was in a surge, he would just swim to safety.Dick Fletcher told him that's kind of like trying to swim in a running garbage disposal with all the debris in it.The dude blanched and changed his tune... Good point. I have a feeling a lot of deaths in surge conditions come from pple getting knocked unconscious and then drowning... pple also forget that even if a storm makes landfall in the day, visibility is usually close to nil, so even being able to see well enough to avoid damaging debris becomes a severe challenge. Finally, if u are outside, esp. in a cat 5, even the SAND becomes a missile designed to remove a part of your body. I'm sure pple remember the reports from the 1935 Keys hurricane about the sand blasting pple ....
1698. CycloneOz
 Quoting iluvjess:1685. So you do not really intend to document CAT 5 conditions? Generally these conditions are limited to a very confined area around the immediate eyewall. From what your saying, you only intend on being in less than CAT 5 conditions.That's not what I've said at all.If it were Katrina all over again...I would be in Biloxi. Part of my survival strategy would have been not to base in Waveland.I would not have been in Waveland that night for all the money on Earth.So, my documentation of "Katrina" would have been from Biloxi.Now...let's say a Cat 5 were headed directly for downtown Pensacola, Florida. I would base myself in downtown Pensacola.
1697. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137186
1696. Patrap
 Quoting CycloneOz:Local Emergency Management can shut down a web cam?That's why I don't respond to you anymore, Pat.You think you're reading something, get all huffy, and then make bla-bla comments.I would never think of giving you advice on anything. Please, I do not require any from you, either.Who said your going to get shut down?I thought you wanted to Draw 2000folks at the Coast Ozzy.I hope the Live Video Feed goes right to the Climax OZ.,as Ill be recording it as well hopefully.But I stress Hurricane Prep,not "come flock to me in the Cat 5 Surge" on the wunderground.So we have diametrically opposing views on advice.Good Luck with your continuing Saga.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137186
1695. Drakoen
 Warm anomalies declining:
1694. CycloneOz
 Quoting FloridaTigers:I had some family friends who were in Country Walk and featured in Inside Edition after Andrew. They had neighbor's whose houses were being destroyed, and they were flocking to other people's houses to seek refuge. There were 8 people in her car in a small garage for four hours, as her house around her was torn apart.As frightening as it sounds, this is a viable survival strategy...although the odds are in favor of the storm causing some sort of pain before it was over.
1693. CycloneOz
 Quoting Jeff9641:What would happen if you and the flag pole blew over in a cat 5 and then the flag pole went flying into the air. Not Good!!No...not good...But you have to know how a flagpole is constructed. Remember...you're only talking about 25 feet...so a thirty foot flagpole is what you're looking for.A thirty foot flag pole is usually a 3" diameter steel pole, that is cemented into the ground 36".So the odds are that the flag pole can stand up to a Cat 5.One thing that could knock it over though is a yacht...and those have been known to move freely in a big storm.I've thought all this stuff out, man...from the way a quick-lash rope works to what could take out a flagpole...and then what I would do next.BTW...the secret of a quick-lash rope is that you have a push-release clip secured to one end of the rope. While you're using the rope, you must keep one hand on the release clip at all times in case you have to disengage it.
1692. FloridaTigers
 Quoting Jeff9641:Wasn't that airforce base in Homestead completly destroyed as 185mph wind gust were being reported with some higher gusts. No one can survive that outside I don't care what anybody says on here.I had some family friends who were in Country Walk and featured in Inside Edition after Andrew. They had neighbor's whose houses were being destroyed, and they were flocking to other people's houses to seek refuge. There were 8 people in her car in a small garage for four hours, as her house around her was torn apart.
1691. BahaHurican
 Quoting TampaTom:Arms and legs tend to get ripped off in debris fields. Back in 2004, we were telling folks to put the SSN on their torsos....Just sayin'... So I guess if they just found ur arm / leg they couldn't be sure u were a goner.... or is it that they are less likely to find ur arm or leg....
1690. iluvjess
 1685. So you do not really intend to document CAT 5 conditions? Generally these conditions are limited to a very confined area around the immediate eyewall. From what your saying, you only intend on being in less than CAT 5 conditions.
1689. Jeff9641
 Quoting CycloneOz:But people did survive...Yes they did but they were hunkered down. I'm talking about being outside in the elements.
1688. Jeff9641
 Quoting CycloneOz:I disagree.And this is a perfect time of year to speculate about it.KOTG was correct. A flagpole, a quick-deploy lash rope and some buoyancy is one way you could survive the entire gamut of Hurricane Cat 5.There are other ways, too...but you have to think them out in advance and be prepared to act on them in an instant.If you haven't played this game, you should know that I've been playing it alot in the last six years.What would happen if you and the flag pole blew over in a cat 5 and then the flag pole went flying into the air. Not Good!!
1687. CycloneOz
 Quoting Jeff9641:Wasn't that airforce base in Homestead completly destroyed as 185mph wind gust were being reported with some higher gusts. No one can survive that outside I don't care what anybody says on here.But people did survive...
1686. Jeff9641
 Quoting CycloneOz:;)(believe it or not, this is one of the viable survival strategies I have)Think about it for a minute.You live in Pompano Beach, FL and you've decided to ride out the Cat II hurricane that is 24 hours away from landfall.However, at landfall, the hurricane has achieved Cat 5 status and everything (ala Homestead) is being destroyed...including your home.What would you do to survive?Wasn't that airforce base in Homestead completly destroyed as 185mph wind gust were being reported with some higher gusts. No one can survive that outside I don't care what anybody says on here.
1685. CycloneOz
 Quoting iluvjess:There were no flagpoles left standing in Waveland. The only structures I found still even partially intact were the brick staircases that used to lead to the front of the houses. Brick staircases and sand were left. No debris.So...one of the strategies in Cat 5 storms is to not be anywhere near the inner eyeway when you do not have a shelter that could survive the onslaught.Waveland would've been a poor choice to stay at during Katrina. Heck...the guys in the Biloxi parking garage were almost in a fight for their lives!
1684. BahaHurican
 Quoting jeffs713:What does one around here have to do to get good news for this season?All I hear is "the CONUS and Caribbean are doomed", "the CONUS and Caribbean are doomed", and "the CONUS and Caribbean are doomed". Of course, based on all the model suites' forecasts, the CONUS and Caribbean are doomed. OK, did u HAVE to put this up just as I was getting an afternoon coffee.... ROTFLOL...U the first person to get me to crack a smile on this season's potentialities...
1683. CycloneOz
 Quoting Jeff9641:I don't think there is a such thing as survival strategy outside in a cat. 5.I disagree.And this is a perfect time of year to speculate about it.KOTG was correct. A flagpole, a quick-deploy lash rope and some buoyancy is one way you could survive the entire gamut of Hurricane Cat 5.There are other ways, too...but you have to think them out in advance and be prepared to act on them in an instant.If you haven't played this game, you should know that I've been playing it alot in the last six years.
1682. iluvjess
 There were no flagpoles left standing in Waveland. The only structures I found still even partially intact were the brick staircases that used to lead to the front of the houses. Brick staircases and sand were left. No debris.
1681. Jeff9641
 Quoting CycloneOz:Nothing.I have repeatedly said on this blog that Cat 5 storms require both the appropriate safety equipment AND survival strategy.Say a Cat 5 was headed into Matogordo Bay. What would be my survival strategy in such a place? There is no parking garage (...and that's not the end all and be all of strategies.)I've thought it out, but I'm not willing to talk about it here. You'll have to wait until I find myself in a situation like that to see what my strategy is. You'll know, because the web cam will run as long as the location's wireless system is active.If you went out in a cat 5 storm then I assure you may not make it back. I witnessed first hand what a cat 5 can do and let me tell you in Andrew nothing was left. My friends in Homestead lost everything. I don't think there is a such thing as survival strategy outside in a cat. 5.
1680. CycloneOz
 Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:...by the way you could always strap yerself to a flagpole and rise up and down with the surge that would look cool on the cam i pay money to see that and a cat 5 too;)(believe it or not, this is one of the viable survival strategies I have)Think about it for a minute.You live in Pompano Beach, FL and you've decided to ride out the Cat II hurricane that is 24 hours away from landfall.However, at landfall, the hurricane has achieved Cat 5 status and everything (ala Homestead) is being destroyed...including your home.What would you do to survive?
1679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
 Quoting CycloneOz:Nothing.I have repeatedly said on this blog that Cat 5 storms require both the appropriate safety equipment AND survival strategy.Say a Cat 5 was headed into Matogordo Bay. What would be my survival strategy in such a place? There is no parking garage (...and that's not the end all and be all of strategies.)I've thought it out, but I'm not willing to talk about it here. You'll have to wait until I find myself in a situation like that to see what my strategy is. You'll know, because the web cam will run as long as the location's wireless system is active.just make sure you have a flashing red beacon glue to your helmet on your head so i can see you better as you float around in the surge lolby the way you could always strap yerself to a flagpole and rise up and down with the surge that would look cool on the cam i pay money to see that and a cat 5 too
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61080
1678. CycloneOz
 Quoting NRAamy:I thought it was common knowledge that all storms head to Florida?and more specifically to JFV's bathroom....;)I would like to see that pic today, I think! :) (But my copy is at home.)
1677. Levi32
 Quoting StormW:Hey Levi, these current anomalies almost resemble 1998.They do indeed, with the exception of the 1998 El Nino signature much farther to the east in the Pacific. What's scary is then looking at 2005 and comparing the Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific. The similarities are impressive. The only real difference in 2005 was the warm anomalies in the NE Pacific, due to 2005 being embedded within a warm PDO period, but the overall profile in the Pacific and Atlantic is very similar with a dying central Pacific-based El Nino and warm water in the tropical Atlantic with cold water to the north. 1998 exhibits these similarities in the Atlantic as well.1998:2005:Current:
1676. NRAamy
 I thought it was common knowledge that all storms head to Florida?and more specifically to JFV's bathroom....;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 319 Comments: 31956
1675. atmoaggie
 Quoting CycloneOz:You cannot swim out of a debris field that is being agitated by wind and waves. Your hope is that you're not crushed to death, or that you get dragged down by something heavy snagging you.People see this pristine water coming up from a hurricane during the storm surge.Nothing could be further from the truth.Surge water contains this:Crazy. Swim? I don't think so.Plus, I have had the occasion to swim a mile in a small lake. Could do a couple of miles.Not 10 miles, in rough seas. There are coastal places that wouldn't have dry land for 10 miles, though, unless you want to wait 12 hours or more...in the right surge scenario.
1674. CycloneOz
 Quoting Floodman:I have one question: what keeps the water bourne building debris from doing you serious bodily harm, my one-man demolition derby friend?Nothing.I have repeatedly said on this blog that Cat 5 storms require both the appropriate safety equipment AND survival strategy.Say a Cat 5 was headed into Matogordo Bay. What would be my survival strategy in such a place? There is no parking garage (...and that's not the end all and be all of strategies.)I've thought it out, but I'm not willing to talk about it here. You'll have to wait until I find myself in a situation like that to see what my strategy is. You'll know, because the web cam will run as long as the location's wireless system is active.
1672. Floodman
 Quoting CycloneOz:You think it's bad now! Wait until there is really a Cat 5 making landfall and I'm there. I imagine there will be about 2,000 people joining me on my portable web cam, and many of them screaming at me not to do this or that.I have a \$600 personal epirb and a \$300 emergency inflatable lifevest that supports 400 pounds.That will tell you exactly where I'm prepared to be at landfall.I have one question: what keeps the water bourne building debris from doing you serious bodily harm, my one-man demolition derby friend?
1671. Levi32
 Quoting StormW:Along with the cold PDO.Yup, cold water associated with a cold PDO signature is squeezing down on the warm anomalies from both the north and south in the eastern Pacific. It's worth noting that the PDO index only peaked at +0.83 during this El Nino, which is quite low considering how strong this Nino was. That says a lot about how cold the PDO signature is outside of the equatorial region. That's why this El Nino became so central-pacific based, "El Nino Modoki" as you guys like to call it.
1670. CycloneOz
 Local Emergency Management can shut down a web cam?That's why I don't respond to you anymore, Pat.You think you're reading something, get all huffy, and then make bla-bla comments.I would never think of giving you advice on anything. Please, I do not require any from you, either.
1667. iluvjess
 Quoting Patrap:Dont you have a Family?I hope your Heavily insured Oz.I can guarantee if your near a Cat 5 Surge Zone,,with a Aluminum 80Cu Ft Scuba Tank with BC and a Regulator. Your going to drown.Period.And for sure 2000 folks wouldnt be near you..cuz the Local Emg Mgt isnt going to let your ignorance,draw a crowd.Better read all of those Disclaimers on that Life Insurance Declarations Page. It probably would not pay out.
1666. nrtiwlnvragn
 Quoting twhcracker:on our local weather they said the forecast for this year is for more hurricanes to impact Florida on the EAST coast. so i guess that lets us off the hook here in the GOM?Klotzbach and Gray have the GOM at roughly the same probability as the east coast:PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)I myself put much less weight in landfall forecasts than seasonal forecasts, and seasonal forecasts have little to no demonstrated skill.
1665. CycloneOz
 Quoting TampaTom:I was at a talk with the late Dick Fletcher from Channel 10 here in Tampa. Some guy said if he was in a surge, he would just swim to safety.Dick Fletcher told him that's kind of like trying to swim in a running garbage disposal with all the debris in it.The dude blanched and changed his tune...You cannot swim out of a debris field that is being agitated by wind and waves. Your hope is that you're not crushed to death, or that you get dragged down by something heavy snagging you.People see this pristine water coming up from a hurricane during the storm surge.Nothing could be further from the truth.Surge water contains this:
1664. TampaTom
 Quoting tornadodude:I thought it was common knowledge that all storms head to Florida?Most retirees do....
 Quoting FloridaTigers:While the conditions are conducive for an active season, it's far too early to determine where any storms will go.I thought it was common knowledge that all storms head to Florida?
1662. Tropicsweatherpr
 Quoting Levi32:It's coming down on average. It won't hold on much longer with the huge SOI positive burst we have going on right now. Besides, with the falloff that is inevitable, a procrastinating death of this El Nino is a bad thing for the U.S. regarding the hurricane season.And with what Drakoen posted last night about the subsurface with those blues expanding,this El Nino is toasted.
1661. Stormchaser2007
 I like Bastardi's prediction of 16-18 storms for the season, with 15 being West of 55W. Seems reasonable.
1660. Patrap
 Quoting CycloneOz:You think it's bad now! Wait until there is really a Cat 5 making landfall and I'm there. I imagine there will be about 2,000 people joining me on my portable web cam, and many of them screaming at me not to do this or that.I have a \$600 personal epirb and a \$300 emergency inflatable lifevest that supports 400 pounds.That will tell you exactly where I'm prepared to be at landfall.Dont you have a Family?I hope your Heavily insured Oz.I can guarantee if your near a Cat 5 Surge Zone,,with a Aluminum 80Cu Ft Scuba Tank with BC and a Regulator. Your going to drown.Period.And for sure 2000 folks wouldnt be near you..cuz the Local Emg Mgt isnt going to let your ignorance,draw a crowd.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137186
1659. FloridaTigers
 While the conditions are conducive for an active season, it's far too early to determine where any storms will go.
1658. TampaTom
 Quoting CycloneOz:Debris fields scare me to death...man...I've seen some pictures. Here's one from our website:It's August, and a Cat 5 is in the Gulf....I was at a talk with the late Dick Fletcher from Channel 10 here in Tampa. Some guy said if he was in a surge, he would just swim to safety.Dick Fletcher told him that's kind of like trying to swim in a running garbage disposal with all the debris in it.The dude blanched and changed his tune...
1657. CycloneOz
 Quoting WaterWitch11:oh my god you guys enough with the pens & SSN number. oz you seem like a very smart guy, would you really try to be so close in a cat5 storm? don't you have family that is going to be upset and scared if you do this? i'm sorry it's really none of my business but i just had to comment.You think it's bad now! Wait until there is really a Cat 5 making landfall and I'm there. I imagine there will be about 2,000 people joining me on my portable web cam, and many of them screaming at me not to do this or that.I have a \$600 personal epirb and a \$300 emergency inflatable lifevest that supports 400 pounds.That will tell you exactly where I'm prepared to be at landfall.
1656. Levi32
 Quoting Stormchaser2007:Not moving much at all...Quoting CybrTeddy: Strange, i wonder if the csu and the el nino advisory looked at this.It's coming down on average. It won't hold on much longer with the huge SOI positive burst we have going on right now. Besides, with the falloff that is inevitable, a procrastinating death of this El Nino is a bad thing for the U.S. regarding the hurricane season.
1655. Floodman
 Quoting twhcracker:on our local weather they said the forecast for this year is for more hurricanes to impact Florida on the EAST coast. so i guess that lets us off the hook here in the GOM?The only problem with that is once the storm passes over FL and enters the GOM, Now you got a problem.I'm amazed that anyone would be forecasting any increased liklihood for a specific area this early...but then again, there are a lot of TV mets that get their forecasts from Dr. Bunson Honeydew

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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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