Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

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Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.


Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage. This number would increase to $600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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1305. NRAamy
1292. Floodman 1:13 PM PDT on April 07, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Kind of a nasty way to get the bad news...lol


t'Bob covered in roaches



coming from Jerry Garcia, I'm not sure how to take that....

;)
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Quoting twhcracker:


how did you know we talked like that


We move out tree or two year ago, cher


Quoting hydrus:
The bigger the bugs, the bigger the storm? Well it is unanimous. Itl beah busi un cher. Did I spell that right? :)


Right on it, LOL!
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Quoting twhcracker:


how did you know we talked like that


I lived in New Orleans, sir...before, during and after that little storm we had there a few years ago...what was it called...oh yeah, Katrina!
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1301. xcool
My prediction 16/7/4 Close to CSU
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1300. Drakoen
Quoting troy1993:
So Drakoen are you saying thats its possible we could have an hyperactive hurricane season because thats what everyone on this blog has been saying for the past couple of months?


I believe we will see a well above average season.
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That eyjafjallajokull webcam really is great. I see people

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I am talking about Palm Beach County, where the 52 year return is. Miami your correct, Palm Beach is 1980.
Sorry to get back so late - had to step out for a while.

I give u the PBC point. From my perspective, it's really hard to get a cat 5 into the FL coast anywhere from basically the Keys to Jupiter without it going through the Bahamas first. We may get lucky enough that it might be strengthening into the cat 5 as it approaches FL, but even then that means that our "ephemeral isles" will likely experience strong cat 4 conditions. Not something to look forward to, by any means....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting hydrus:
I Know. I was pissed when somebody said to me "that if the eye of the storm did not pass over you, you were not (hit) by that hurricane. I said to him, What about the 100,000 people who have no roofs on there homes or any house left at all who were not in the eye, just the eye wall. how do you explain to them that they were not (hit). It was all to stupid.


thats like that Ms. Evans teacher story. no one knew she had a brain because you couldn't see it.
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1295. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


t'Bob covered in roaches; look like we goan get hurcan cher!
The bigger the bugs, the bigger the storm? Well it is unanimous. Itl beah busi un cher. Did I spell that right? :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19553
Quoting Floodman:


t'Bob covered in roaches; look like we goan get hurcan cher!


how did you know we talked like that
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1293. hydrus
Quoting FloridaTigers:


It doesn't have to be a major direct hit on Downtown Miami for the whole county to be affected. Miami's infrastructure was shut down completely by Andrew. Kendall is still part of Miami. I lived about 8 or so miles north of the eyewall and we still received more damage than I have ever seen from a hurricane, including any of the recent storms from 2005. Of course, I don't like at "being overdue" as a standard of anything. Be prepared for everything and anything no matter what
I Know. I was pissed when somebody said to me "that if the eye of the storm did not pass over you, you were not (hit) by that hurricane. I said to him, What about the 100,000 people who have no roofs on there homes or any house left at all who were not in the eye, just the eye wall. how do you explain to them that they were not (hit). It was all to stupid.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19553
Quoting hydrus:
Kind of a nasty way to get the bad news...lol


t'Bob covered in roaches; look like we goan get hurcan cher!
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1291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WaterWitch11:
ok maybe i phrased that wrong, but when i look up info on the bermuda high it doesn't really help me understand.

anybody got info on the bermuda high?


from my blog

The Azores High, (also known as North Atlantic High/Anticyclone or the Bermuda High/Anticyclone in the United States), is a large subtropical semi-permanent centre of high atmospheric pressure found near the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean, at the Horse latitudes. It forms one pole of the North Atlantic oscillation, the other being the Icelandic Low. The system influences the weather and climatic patterns of vast areas of North Africa and Europe. The aridity of the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Basin is due to the subsidence of air in the system.

In summer, the central pressure lies around 1024 mbar (hPa), and moves north towards the Iberian Peninsula, causing ridging across France, northern Germany and the southeastern United Kingdom. This brings hot and dry weather to these areas. In years that the Azores High is well developed, it extends westward toward Bermuda, and begins to influence weather in the eastern United States. While it affects conditions in the western Atlantic, the Azores High can also be called the Bermuda High. In winter, the High moves to the south of the Azores, and fluctuations in pressure result in more variable weather.


Tropical wave formation.
This high pressure block exhibits anticyclonic nature, circulating the air clockwise. Due to this direction of movement, African eastern waves are impelled along the southern periphery of the Azores High away from coastal West Africa towards North America and the Caribbean, sometimes triggering tropical cyclogenesis, especially during the hurricane season.
**********************************************************


Easterly Waves
Long waves occur in bands of geostrophic wind flowing above the friction layer. Long waves may flow toward the west or toward the east depending on which of the major global wind belts they occur in. Easterly waves are "long waves" that occur within the trade wind belt, start over north western Africa, and propagate toward the west in the lower tropospheric tradewind flow across the Atlantic Ocean. They are first seen usually in April or May and continue until October or November. They occur between 5-15 degrees N. They have a wavelength of about 2000 to 2500 km, a period of ~3-4 days, and move at approximately 18 - 36 km/h. Approximately two easterly waves per week travel from Africa to North America during hurricane season. Passing from the African continent onto the cool Eastern Atlantic, the waves generally decay, but remnants mostly survive to the Western Atlantic and Caribbean where they regenerate. Only 9 out of 100 easterly waves survive to develop into gale-force tropical storms, or full-fledged hurricanes.

About 60% of the Atlantic tropical storms and minor hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) originate from easterly waves. However, nearly 85% of the intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as easterly waves. The majority of synoptic scale systems from Africa propagate beyond the Caribbean and the Central American Isthmus into the Eastern Pacific, where some intensify into Tropical Storms. It has been suggested that nearly all of the tropical cyclones that occur in the Eastern Pacific Ocean can also be traced back to Africa. Many Typhoons in the Western Pacific are also believed to develop from Easterly Waves, although more work is needed on the relationship of Easterly Waves in the Western and Eastern Pacific
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1290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1289. SQUAWK
POLO!!!!
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ok maybe i phrased that wrong, but when i look up info on the bermuda high it doesn't really help me understand.

anybody got info on the bermuda high?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
Quoting troy1993:
So Drakoen are you saying thats its possible we could have an hyperactive hurricane season because thats what everyone on this blog has been saying for the past couple of months?


He's saying the conditions and trends were seeing in the Atlantic might be very well conductive for a very active season.
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Quoting tornadodude:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC113-072000-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0012.100407T1928Z-100407T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
228 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TOWANDA...OR NEAR BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOWANDA...COOKSVILLE...LEXINGTON...COLFAX...CHENOA...LAKE
BLOOMINGTON...PLEASANT HILL...ANCHOR...CROPSEY AND WESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4075 8858 4067 8858 4062 8857 4063 8847
4062 8846 4060 8846 4041 8892 4055 8907
4076 8884 4076 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 232DEG 38KT 4054 8890
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

Hang on, the atmosphere is loaded with energy, there are 2 watches out a Tornado Watch for your area and a Severe T-Storm Watch further south:

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1282. Patrap
NOAA




Contributed by Neal Dorst

The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity. June 1st has been the traditional start of the Atlantic hurricane season for decades. However, the end date has been slowly shifted outward, from October 31st to November 15th until its current date of November 30th.

The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2 - see Subject D1) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then (Landsea 1993). Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December. (For more detailed information, see Subject G12 - "What is my chance of having a tropical storm or hurricane strike by each month?")
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1281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
my numbers for season

21 to 23 named storms
11 to 14 will be hurricanes
3 to 5 will be majors
2 possible cat 5's

i may very well be wrong a lot depends on how things play out from early may onward to the start numbers mean nothing but an indication of how active we may think it will be
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1280. Patrap
As a rule I usually dont comment nor run with any of the Forecast numbers,as they cant tell us Where,nor when,.

But I feel that CSU and da Boyz held back their Gut feelings a tad, and went with the "adjusted down" Public release.

So..I focus on Prep and Education.

..the NWS has a Lot of new Products warning and watch times, and will be noting them as we close on May 15th



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So Drakoen are you saying thats its possible we could have an hyperactive hurricane season because thats what everyone on this blog has been saying for the past couple of months?
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Climate scientist Hansen wins $100,000 prize

Link
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1277. Drakoen
I see CSU has released their forecast 15-8-4. Those numbers appear conservative given our conditions. I took note that CSU had 2005 as an analog year. In April they forecast for 2005 to have 13 named storms 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. Not to put much emphasis on an anomalous analog year, but rather we can see how early predictions this far out can lack validity in the end.
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1276. Patrap


getagameplan.org

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


UPDATE 2-US forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat
Wed Apr 7, 2010 11:05am EDT* Above-average chance "major" hurricane will hit US coast

Bonds

* Gulf of Mexico oil patch is vulnerable, Haiti also

* Report cites unusually warm sea temperatures as factor (Adds more details, background)

By Pascal Fletcher

MIAMI, April 7 (Reuters) - The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.

An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating Jan. 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.

'EXTREME' SEASON FEARED

The earlier forecast in December by Gray's team had already predicted an "above-average" season producing 11 to 16 tropical storms, including six to eight hurricanes. It had said three to five of next year's storms would become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather.com, last month also forecast a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year, with "above-normal threats" to the U.S. coastline.

AccuWeather said five hurricanes, two or three of them major, were expected to strike the U.S. coast, forming out of an expected 16 to 18 tropical storms, almost all of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

The 2009 season ended Nov. 30 had only nine storms, including three hurricanes, and was the quietest since 1997 due in part to El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

But Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster with the Colorado State team -- whose research is followed closely by energy and commodity markets -- said El Nino was expected to dissipate fully by the start of this year's storm season.

"The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," said Klotzbach. (Additional reporting and editing by Tom Brown, editing by Jackie Frank)



when is the bermuda high determined?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Oz, I know you do your videos and chases for educational purposes, but of course there is a "thrill" aspect involved if one wants to chasing. Would you ever go chase a landfalling Category 5 storm?


Yes, I'm prepared to intercept a landfalling Cat 5, but my survival strategy and equipment I'd be wearing would reflect the severity of the storm.

The thrill I've experienced in the past was after the storm had abated and I realize I had survived.

During the storm, there are moments of awe I feel, especially when I'm standing in the wind. But then just as suddenly can come a feeling of doom, such as when Dolly sent whirling asphalt shingles in my direction.
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Csu is in agreement with what I thought since January it seems. I've said 15/7/4 and the csu says 15/8/4. I really hope most of he storms this year are fishers, not Deans and Ikes.
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1272. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Doesn't CSU make its predictions today?


UPDATE 2-US forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat
Wed Apr 7, 2010 11:05am EDT* Above-average chance "major" hurricane will hit US coast

Bonds

* Gulf of Mexico oil patch is vulnerable, Haiti also

* Report cites unusually warm sea temperatures as factor (Adds more details, background)

By Pascal Fletcher

MIAMI, April 7 (Reuters) - The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.

An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating Jan. 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.

'EXTREME' SEASON FEARED

The earlier forecast in December by Gray's team had already predicted an "above-average" season producing 11 to 16 tropical storms, including six to eight hurricanes. It had said three to five of next year's storms would become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather.com, last month also forecast a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year, with "above-normal threats" to the U.S. coastline.

AccuWeather said five hurricanes, two or three of them major, were expected to strike the U.S. coast, forming out of an expected 16 to 18 tropical storms, almost all of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

The 2009 season ended Nov. 30 had only nine storms, including three hurricanes, and was the quietest since 1997 due in part to El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

But Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster with the Colorado State team -- whose research is followed closely by energy and commodity markets -- said El Nino was expected to dissipate fully by the start of this year's storm season.

"The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," said Klotzbach. (Additional reporting and editing by Tom Brown, editing by Jackie Frank)

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1271. NRAamy
MARCO!!!!!
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Doesn't CSU make its predictions today?
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Tdude, looks like a line already.



good point :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC113-072000-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0012.100407T1928Z-100407T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
228 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TOWANDA...OR NEAR BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOWANDA...COOKSVILLE...LEXINGTON...COLFAX...CHENOA...LAKE
BLOOMINGTON...PLEASANT HILL...ANCHOR...CROPSEY AND WESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4075 8858 4067 8858 4062 8857 4063 8847
4062 8846 4060 8846 4041 8892 4055 8907
4076 8884 4076 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 232DEG 38KT 4054 8890
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1267. SQUAWK
Tdude, looks like a line already.

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We had the SWIRL last May that should of been named, and the season was a bust
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Based on that map, SE FL is due a cat 5 in 2025....


I am talking about Palm Beach County, where the 52 year return is. Miami your correct, Palm Beach is 1980.
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Quoting watchingnva:


looks to be a few areas of weak rotation popping up in the line in IL. ....might need to keep an eye on it...


yeah they are definitely developing nicely, I'm expecting a tornado threat for the next hour or two, then I imagine they will form more of a line, or broken line with more of a wind and hail threat
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
There it is...7:18PM GMT. Took most of the day but a version of the word "idiot" is back on the blog...3 days in a row. (yes, I'm bored, does it show?)
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looks to be a few areas of weak rotation popping up in the line in IL. ....might need to keep an eye on it...
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Overdue actually

Based on that map, SE FL is due a cat 5 in 2025....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734


SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHEAST TX. CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAVE LIMITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL
LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HART
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC005-119-135-071945-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0026.100407T1911Z-100407T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
211 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALHAMBRA...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF HIGHLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...POCAHONTAS...SORENTO...RENO...WOBURN...COFFEEN...
MULBERRY GROVE...VAN BURENSBURG...NEW DOUGLAS...SHILOH HILL...OLD
RIPLEY...DUDLEYVILLE...PANAMA...DONNELLSON...SMITHBORO...PLEASANT
MOUND AND CHAPMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3881 8927 3874 8957 3874 8960 3873 8961
3872 8967 3892 8979 3913 8936 3910 8926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 245DEG 31KT 3888 8963
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Sorry missed that post Cyclone

Hi Storm!! How are you?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.