Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

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Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.


Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage. This number would increase to $600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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1105. Patrap
Yesterday's Storm Report (1200 UTC - 1159 UTC)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Notice how the NW and W Gulf has spiked in temperatures in the past 5 days! doesnt take long for that Gulf I tell ya guys
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1103. xcool
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%
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1102. Skyepony (Mod)
Brazil flood toll exceeds 100
Wednesday, April 07,2010

The death toll from heavy rain and floods in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and surrounding areas reached 102 on Wednesday, the country's civil defense said.

About 287 people have been rescued, and others were trapped under mudslides caused by the rain, Maj. Ronaldo Nogueira said on Tuesday.

A record-breaking 11.3 inches (288 millimeters) of rain fell in Rio within 24 hours on Tuesday, Mayor Eduardo Paes said, according to the state-run Agencia Brasil news agency.

The downpour continued Wednesday.

Firefighters were focusing on rescuing people from multiple mudslides throughout the state of Rio de Janeiro.

There were reports of power outages, and schools were closed because of the rain. A high tide came with the rain, making the situation worse, officials said.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38152
good afternoon all,

any thoughts on the severe weather potential in my area?

waiting on the new outlook for today, scheduled for 12:30 EDT
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting hydrus:
Good thing considering what happened there>


Approaching 50 yrs for that area, overdue you say?
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1099. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
There is a big difference between this,



and this:



Both were extreme seasons, but the landfall impact was so much greater in 2005 due to the conditions which set up the main congregation of tracks in a position to affect a ton of people.
That chart showing all the tracks of the 2005 Hurricane Season is absolutely hideous. If something similar to that happens again, there will be some serious problems. On a positive note, the chances of having a season that devastating are low. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
15/8/4 seems reasonable BUT if the EURO forecast come to pass i think another small increase in those numbers might be forthcoming. Now is the time to prepare.
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Great view of volcano Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland right now.
"Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and cauldron bubble. "

Link
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1094. Patrap
GOES Spacecraft Status Main Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1093. xcool
Forecast Team at Colorado State University Predicts Above-Average 2010 Hurricane Season


Note to Reporters: The complete forecast and photos of William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are available with the news release at http://www.news.colostate.edu/.

FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University forecast team predicts an above-average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season based on the premise that El Nino conditions will dissipate by this summer and that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist.

The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

“We expect current moderate El Nino conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team. “The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.”

The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray. The hurricane forecast team makes its predictions based on 58 years of historical data.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” Gray said. “While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”

Precursor factors to this year have a number of similarities to early April conditions that preceded the hurricane years of 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005. All five of these seasons had above-average activity, especially the seasons of 1969, 1998 and 2005. Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have slightly less activity than the average of these five earlier years.

The team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 70 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil are as follows:

- A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

- A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

- A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicts a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42 percent).

The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The team began using a new early April statistical model in 2008.

“We have found that using two late-winter predictors and our early December hindcast, we can obtain early April predictions that show considerable hindcast skill over the period from 1950-2007,” said Klotzbach. “This new forecast model also provided a very accurate prediction over the past few seasons.”

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane, is the first publicly accessible Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Probabilities are also available for all islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts.

The team will issue forecast updates on June 2 and August 4.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM
EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
-Released April 7, 2010-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1950-2000) Climatological Averages Forecast for 2010
in parentheses)
Named Storms (9.6)* 15
Named Storm Days (49.1) 75
Hurricanes (5.9) 8
Hurricane Days (24.5) 35
Major Hurricanes (2.3) 4
Major Hurricane Days (5.0) 10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (96) 150

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1091. Patrap
In a twist of Fate and Irony,..while researching the Breech at the 17th St.Canal..5 Months post Katrina,Dr. Ivor Van Heerden and his study group from LSU found that the Sheet Pilings that failed in the Levee's I-wall design stopped at a layer of Peat,below the surface at 14 ft,where a Large Hurricane 400-475 years ago,destroyed the Area and laid down the actual peat layer,that shifted During Katrina and caused the Collapse of that Levee..during Katrina's Surge assault the Morning of 29 Aug 2005.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
jeffs713

Here is the GOES launch/storage/operational schedule at of Dec 1, 2009.



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1089. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:


Lot less people in those days
Good thing considering what happened there>
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
1088. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


That sounds reasonable...
Whats shaking Flood? (other than Sumatra and Mexico).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting hydrus:
Carla was a monster. people heeded the evac orders though.


Lot less people in those days
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1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UPDATE 2-US forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat
Wed Apr 7, 2010 11:05am EDT* Above-average chance "major" hurricane will hit US coast

Bonds

* Gulf of Mexico oil patch is vulnerable, Haiti also

* Report cites unusually warm sea temperatures as factor (Adds more details, background)

By Pascal Fletcher

MIAMI, April 7 (Reuters) - The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.

An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating Jan. 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.

'EXTREME' SEASON FEARED

The earlier forecast in December by Gray's team had already predicted an "above-average" season producing 11 to 16 tropical storms, including six to eight hurricanes. It had said three to five of next year's storms would become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather.com, last month also forecast a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year, with "above-normal threats" to the U.S. coastline.

AccuWeather said five hurricanes, two or three of them major, were expected to strike the U.S. coast, forming out of an expected 16 to 18 tropical storms, almost all of them in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

The 2009 season ended Nov. 30 had only nine storms, including three hurricanes, and was the quietest since 1997 due in part to El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

But Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster with the Colorado State team -- whose research is followed closely by energy and commodity markets -- said El Nino was expected to dissipate fully by the start of this year's storm season.

"The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," said Klotzbach. (Additional reporting and editing by Tom Brown, editing by Jackie Frank)

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Matorgorda Bay area in TX has been dodging a bullet for decades it seems from a major. That is my prime target area, it's going to happen at some point.


Yeah, and the Matorgorda Bay area is one of those places (like Port St. Joe, etc.) that does not have a parking garage structure.

So for the interceptor, the question is, where do you position yourself?

The only answer I have scares me more than intercepting in Biloxi.
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Worst case scenerio for Galveston is a Freeport landfall in Brazoria county. Ultimate devastation for the island.
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1083. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:


Well if its compact Galveston would be ok, if its a Carla or Ike...trouble
Carla was a monster. people heeded the evac orders though.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
1081. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
There has been a definite surge in earthquake activity in the past 7 years or so. It makes me worry that there will be more terrible disasters like the 2004 tsunami and Jan-12 earthquake in Haiti.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
1080. Ossqss
Someone say sediment ? Interesting bolt on to already understood items :)

UCSB Geologist Discovers Pattern in Earth's Long-Term Climate Record

April 6, 2010







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Quoting Skyepony:
Jeffs~ Pretty sure it's the Southern Pine Beetle, though it could be more than one type. These had a few sickly limbs (& occasionally could hear the creepy chewing sounds) for several years before the sudden prestorm deaths. It would be interesting to track what the different varieties do before storms..

Southern Pine Beetle (SPB)
Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) is perhaps the best-known pest of southern pines. Like Ips and black turpentine beetles, SPB normally attacks stressed and dying pine trees. Under certain environmental conditions, however, SPB outbreaks can occur, during which vast acreages of pines in both forests and residential landscapes are mass-attacked and killed. Florida has experienced devastating SPB outbreaks in the recent past. Historically, the range of SPB in the state has included only north and central Florida, and no SPB activity has been recorded south of Orange and Hernando Counties. Bark beetle activity observed in south Florida can most likely be attributed to Ips and black turpentine beetles.


Yep, its all SPB over here.

Last summer, we had a vicious drought, and that caused all the trees to be stressed, with predictable results.
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Quoting jeffs713:

And For the most part, Matagorda Bay is a worst-possible case for the Houston Metro area - especially Galveston Island.


Well if its compact Galveston would be ok, if its a Carla or Ike...trouble
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Matorgorda Bay area in TX has been dodging a bullet for decades it seems from a major. That is my prime target area, it's going to happen at some point.

And For the most part, Matagorda Bay is a worst-possible case for the Houston Metro area - especially Galveston Island.
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1076. Skyepony (Mod)
Jeffs~ Pretty sure it's the Southern Pine Beetle, though it could be more than one type. These had a few sickly limbs (& occasionally could hear the creepy chewing sounds) for several years before the sudden prestorm deaths. It would be interesting to track what the different varieties do before storms..

Southern Pine Beetle (SPB)
Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) is perhaps the best-known pest of southern pines. Like Ips and black turpentine beetles, SPB normally attacks stressed and dying pine trees. Under certain environmental conditions, however, SPB outbreaks can occur, during which vast acreages of pines in both forests and residential landscapes are mass-attacked and killed. Florida has experienced devastating SPB outbreaks in the recent past. Historically, the range of SPB in the state has included only north and central Florida, and no SPB activity has been recorded south of Orange and Hernando Counties. Bark beetle activity observed in south Florida can most likely be attributed to Ips and black turpentine beetles.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38152
Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL...Cantore shelters during eyewall landfall. If I set up with him, the only footage I would get would be of us pouring shots.


That sounds reasonable...
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1074. Levi32
Reviewing some of my analog years (all but 1964 are also Klotzbach/Gray's analogs), it's amazing how similar most of these years were in terms of the congregation of storm tracks. In all 4 of these years, there was an active Cape Verde season with the main track spread to the north of the Caribbean aimed towards the SE United States coastline. Some hit, and some just missed by recurving between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda.

There were a handfull of random storms that recurved out in the eastern Atlantic, but you can see the clear pattern in these 4 years that is very similar.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Matorgorda Bay area in TX has been dodging a bullet for decades it seems from a major. That is my prime target area, it's going to happen at some point.
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Quoting StormW:


Oz,
You could always see if Cantore would let you set up with him! LOL!


LOL...Cantore shelters during eyewall landfall. If I set up with him, the only footage I would get would be of us pouring shots.
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1070. Patrap
Quoting CycloneOz:


Intercepting a major hurricane in Biloxi, for some reason, just scares the hell out of me.

There's a major parking garage right on the Gulf at a casino. The next nearest parking garage is north of that position by a quarter-mile.

Of course, I'd set up my base at the garage further away from the coast, but I'd position myself in the parking garage right on the Gulf, at least for the outset of the eyewall making landfall.

I may have to re-think that...


No Gawkers will be allowed in the Beau Rivage Parking Garage or any Casino Parking Garages in Miss,when a Hurricane Warning is issued.

Period,as per the Harrison County Emg Mgt Bulletin from June 2007
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting jeffs713:

Is Goes-P going to stay as the GOES satellite for the west coast, or is it just being parked for storage/later activation?


Storage along with GOES-14. I think GOES-14 will be next to replace current west coast satellite.
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1067. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1062. FloridaDweller 3:45 PM GMT on April 07, 2010
KOTG- I pray you are wrong!



i may very well be a lot depends on how things play out from early may onward to the start numbers mean nothing but an indication of how active we may think it will be
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1066. Levi32
There is a big difference between this,



and this:



Both were extreme seasons, but the landfall impact was so much greater in 2005 due to the conditions which set up the main congregation of tracks in a position to affect a ton of people.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
August and September will be our danger months
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Quoting tornadofan:
Hmmm... 1969 (Camille) and 2005 (Katrina) as analog years...

Think Mississippi is a little nervous?


Intercepting a major hurricane in Biloxi, for some reason, just scares the hell out of me.

There's a major parking garage right on the Gulf at a casino. The next nearest parking garage is north of that position by a quarter-mile.

Of course, I'd set up my base at the garage further away from the coast, but I'd position myself in the parking garage right on the Gulf, at least for the outset of the eyewall making landfall.

I may have to re-think that...
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KOTG- I pray you are wrong!
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1061. Levi32
Quoting jeffs713:

Ya know, that light at the end of the tunnel? It is looking more and more like a train.

Lets hope that this season beats the predictions, and is much more mild than forecast.


Yeah let's hope....even if the number of named storms is 15 or 16, fairly average for this decade, I'm still really concerned for above-normal landfall impact on the Caribbean and United States. We don't need the Greek alphabet to make this a very bad year for a lot of people.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
1060. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
my numbers for season

21 to 23 named storms
11 to 14 will be hurricanes
3 to 5 will be majors
2 possible cat 5's
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Is Goes-P going to stay as the GOES satellite for the west coast, or is it just being parked for storage/later activation?
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1058. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1057. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting jeffs713:

Ya know, that light at the end of the tunnel? It is looking more and more like a train.

Lets hope that this season beats the predictions, and is much more mild than forecast.
a very long train
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Quoting Levi32:
From Klotzbach and Gray April 2010 Hurricane Forecast

There were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to what we observed in February-March 2010. The best analog years that we could find for the 2010 hurricane season were 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005. We anticipate that 2010 seasonal hurricane activity will have activity slightly less than what was experienced in the average of these five years. This is primarily due to the fact that 2005 was selected as one of our analog years, and we do not expect to see as many storms as were experienced that year. We believe that 2010 will have well above-average activity in the Atlantic basin.

Well that's nice to know they were looking at the same analogs that we were. I feel better now for including 2005 as an analog in my package lol. The only year they have up there that is not one of my analogs is 1969.

Klotzbach and Gray are forecasting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an above-normal chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline and the Caribbean.

Ya know, that light at the end of the tunnel? It is looking more and more like a train.

Lets hope that this season beats the predictions, and is much more mild than forecast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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