Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category
The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.
Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.
Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.
Jeff Masters
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We got our hammering last night into this morning. Skies mostly blue except in the north-east.
Sunday 18th April 2010
Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Iceland
Ash emissions are continuing from Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Winds are blowing the ash over Europe, causing flights to remain grounded. All flights to and from Britain have been cancelled until at least 7pm today. Ashfall has been reported in Britain. Five million travelers are stranded, waiting for flights to resume. Some may be waiting for more than a week to find available seats. If flight disruptions continue into this week there will be a shortage of some food products in Britain, which normally come in by air from east Asia and Africa. The grounding of flights has already cost the British economy about £1 billion, with £230m losses for every day of further disruption. The initial eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano last month was basalt, while the new eruption under the glacier last week involved andesite.
This change is indicative of the ejecta becoming richer in silica. This would imply that the ejecta become more viscous and the eruptions more explosive. It may fortell the near end of ejected ash (that would be good news)....
Good night. I'm out.
AUSTRIA - Airports expected to reopen 0400 GMT Monday.
BELGIUM - Airspace closed until at least 1800 GMT Sunday. Main airline, Brussels Airlines, has canceled all flights until Monday.
* BRITAIN - Airspace closed until at least 1800 GMT Monday. British Airways cancels all Monday flights.
BULGARIA - Sofia and Plovdiv airports open as of 1100 GMT Sunday. Other airports closed. Transit flights permitted at 8,000 meters altitude.
CZECH REPUBLIC - Airspace closed until at least 1000 GMT Monday.
DENMARK - Airspace closed until 1200 GMT Monday.
ESTONIA - Airspace closed until 1200 GMT Monday.
FINLAND - Airspace closed until at least 1500 GMT Monday.
FRANCE - Bordeaux, Marseille, Nice, Toulouse and several other southwest airports will remain open until at least 1300 GMT Monday. Airports north of Nice-Bordeaux line remain closed at least until Tuesday morning. Air France said a test flight from Paris to Toulouse on Sunday had ended without problems; tests continuing.
* GERMANY - International airports shut until 1200 GMT Monday. Temporary opening permission to Berlin's Tegel and Schoenefeld airports to end at 2200 GMT.
HUNGARY - Airspace to remain closed until at least 1000 GMT Monday, although some flights at the discretion of traffic control may be allowed to take off or land.
IRELAND - Airspace closed until at least 1200 GMT on Monday. Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost carrier, canceled all flights to and from northern Europe until at least mid-Wednesday. Aer Lingus canceled all flights Monday.
ITALY - Northern airspace to reopen from 0500 GMT Monday.
LATVIA - Airspace closed until 0600 GMT Monday.
LITHUANIA - Lithuania airspace is now open, Vilnius Airport said on its website on Sunday.
LUXEMBOURG - Luxembourg airport closed until at least 1600 GMT Sunday.
* NETHERLANDS - Airspace shut until at least 0600 GMT Monday.
NORWAY - Main airport, Oslo Gardermoen, opened for take-offs, but so far no landings, aviation authority Avinor told news channel TV 2. Airspace opened for some traffic north of Bergen, with some northern areas still closed.
POLAND - Six Polish airports, including Warsaw, reopened for commercial flights.
ROMANIA - Airspace closed until at least 0900 GMT Monday.
RUSSIA - All airports open. Aeroflot is flying to the United States via the North Pole.
SLOVAKIA - Airspace closed as of 1300 GMT on Friday.
SLOVENIA - Airspace was opened around 1800 GMT Sunday and will stay open until at least 0400 GMT Monday, national news agency STA cited Traffic Ministry as saying. However, the ministry expects it to be closed again because of more ash reaching Slovenia around 0600 GMT, STA said.
SPAIN - The 17 airports closed on Sunday morning by the Spanish airport authorities now open.
SWEDEN - Airport authority has opened airspace north of 62 degrees latitude, about 250 km north of Stockholm. The rest remains closed into Monday. Scandinavian Airlines said most of its flights on April 18 and 19 had been canceled.
SWITZERLAND - Main carrier Swiss says canceled all European flights from and to Switzerland until Monday, 1800 GMT. Swiss also says canceled all intercontinental flights from Switzerland for all of Monday.
TURKEY - All airports open. Planes flying out of the Black Sea cities of Samsun, Sinop and Zonguldak have been advised not to fly higher than 20,000 feet.
UKRAINE - Kiev's Borispol airport open.
(Compiled by London World Desk)
I save it, then upload it to photobucket, then paste the link here. The radar images "here" have a "save this image" link bottom left of the picture
Well, at least tomorrow it will not be raining :0).
On a positive note, the European airports may resume limited flights in some areas tomorrow.
I would say that's accurate. :-)
We need the rain so nobody is complaining. We have had severe water restrictions for many months. Just hope it's raining in the catchment area.
Severe thunderstorm line approaching Haiti:
Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Avalanches, Blizzards, Mudslides, and presumably hurricanes. If there is a major tornado outbreak we're set.
yet me see a cat 5 hurricane or a cat 4 hurricane wish i dont think they need or want
that would be another catastrophe of epic proportions...
For most images, you right-click then select properties, paste the URL from there and click on "Image" in the new comment box then fill in that URL and the image size if applicable.
To coin a new term...one of "Nargis" proportions.
Awesome. Travel schedule this week. Monday=Puerto Rico
Tuesday and Wednesday=Dominican Republic
Big banks of black clouds moving by the window, does look kind of like summer.
Stranded fliers in Fla. get free park passes
Related Content
http://www.orlandosentinel.com
The Associated Press
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Fliers grounded in Florida by an Icelandic volcano's eruption are getting some free entertainment.
SeaWorld Parks and Entertainment is offering free admission to stranded travelers to three of its parks: the flagship SeaWorld Orlando, water park Aquatica and Busch Gardens Tampa Bay.
European tourists with a return ticket dated April 14 to April 21 are entitled to the free one-day ticket.
That's too cool. And in other places they are using armed guards to keep people in hotels because their visas have expired. Now if Universal would just give free entry to the new Harry Potter section. ;>)
If they did that to me, I would never ever spend another dime in their country, or on their products again once I was home.
I agree 100%. If I'm not mistaken it's happening in Moscow and India. I may be mixing my stories up though since I'm going from memory. (it hurts) But I know for sure both of these countries are treating people badly.
Iceland volcano: Tales from travellers stranded around the world
From the tourists stuck in a Moscow hotel to the couple married via Skype in Dubai, travellers share their stories
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* Sam Jones
* guardian.co.uk, Sunday 18 April 2010 17.10 BST
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Icleand volcano travel chaos
Passengers in the waiting room at Roissy Charles de Gaulle Airport as European flight restrictions enter their fourth day. Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP
A fourth day of international flight restrictions heaped more chaos, misery and the odd flash of ingenuity as people around the world struggled to fulfil their personal and professional commitments despite the shutdown.
Moira Hickson, a 21-year-old student from Norwich on her way back from visiting her aunt in Thailand, was last night contemplating yet another evening in the Moscow hotel which has been home since Thursday.
Hickson and her fellow Aeroflot passengers became stranded in the Russian capital after the cloud descended and turned their three-hour transfer into a four-day ordeal.
Without valid Russian visas, some of them were shepherded to a hotel while others remain stuck in the airport – all of them dependent on the help of the British embassy.
Before her mobile phone died, Hickson managed to ring her boyfriend, Chris Thurmott, in Leicester to let him know what was going on.
"The Russian authorities seem to be treating them like criminals," he said. "There's about 20 or 30 people at the hotel – most of them British – and they're not allowed to leave their rooms and they have to be escorted to the hotel restaurant by the people who are guarding them 24 hours a day."
Thurmott said that many people at the hotel had packed their medication into their check-in luggage and were now in urgent need of it.
A young girl at the hotel had already had an asthma attack, he said, while many women could not get sanitary towels.
And the so called "experts" say all of the Earthquakes are in "more popluated areas." Rubbish. I think that 2010 will be the year of the Earthquakes. Does anyone agree?
In Dubai, a British couple who were due to get married in the UK over the weekend found themselves making their vows on Skype so that their friends and family could witness the wedding.
Sean Murtagh, 24, and his new wife Natalie, a 30-year-old Australian, got married in Brisbane three weeks ago but had been due to hold a humanist ceremony for family and friends in the UK on Saturday.
When they found themselves stranded after changing planes in Dubai on Thursday, they had to make other plans.
Staff at the Millennium Airport Hotel in Dubai baked them a cake, decorated the lobby and set up a laptop with Skype and a projector so that the ceremony could take place via a link to London.
"It's been an incredible day," said Murtagh. "We were never going to forget it anyway but we certainly won't forget it now."
Humanist celebrant Caroline Black, who conducted the ceremony from Trailfinders Sports Club in Ealing, west London, said: "I've done lots of humanist weddings but not one like this at all. It was just like any other wedding except the bride and groom weren't there."
I think you'll like this image:
Click here
Sea ice is highest in the period that the graph has shown!
Just put on sweat pants and a long sleeve shirt over my shorts and t-shirt.
Chilly, but its mid-spring in N TX.
it already is
According to the USGS, no. However, the quakes are occurring in more populated areas than over the last few years. People and large earthquakes don't get along very well!!
SOI is highest in 4 months it seems...
Reply: But the long term trend is rock bottom down.
Long term trend doesn't really matter.
travel restrictions from the Icelandic volcano, is
there a place that shows what these ash particles
look under magnification? I would like to see and
show what these particles really look like.
Here you go:
They showed a magnification on the BBC, but I'm not sure where to find it.
Sooo, still considering the boat trip in June? lol Seriously though, hope things work out for you soon.
Explorer and Google.
Key thing to note. Equatorial Pacific resembles a Sine wave ...
Check out the equatorial Pacific. Notice the Sine wave? I saw this very presentation as the last El Nino started to wind down. (A very similar wave patter showed up as the El Nino started, but frequency of the wave was higher)Anyone else noticed?
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