Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey I think that should be a sub tropical storm the NHC is sleeping

Good Morning. This AOI was an area of low pressure that emerged off of South Carolina several days ago while attached to a trough. This AOI has just been skirting the coast. If it were August and more to the south the NHC would go ahead and call this a subtropical storm, but its April 23, 2010, unless it were by the Georgia coast and still spinning strong than maybe the NHC might consider. Remember it's April.

(06z) NAM 84 hours out is showing a lot of activity around central America, our first invest might take place there.

ya jeff today looks like a high impact widespread event

Good Morning.......In lurk mode waiting to see how severe weather events unfold for the US between now and Sunday.....Here is part of the discussion this morning from Tallahassee NWS. Looks like the Panhandle region could have a rough ride on Saturday evening going into Sunday....Hate it when threatening weather unfolds in the overnight hours....All the more reason to have your weather radios handy and in play in the Panhandle this weekend:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
555 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2010

STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WESTERN TN VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE TN VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MID/LLJ STRUCTURES MOVE
OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY SAT EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION...HOWEVER THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR VICINITY WILL STILL ENCOUNTER A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR OF APPROX 60 KNOTS (PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS). 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND IMPRESSIVE HELICITY VALUES BY THE MID EVENING HOURS WILL INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AND PROGRESSIVE SQUALL
LINE. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. THE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

MiamiHurricanes09 invest huh ???

Y'all need to accept the fact that its merely extra-tropical. The convection is being enhanced by the SST gradient of the Gulf Stream.

this area of the northeast coast looks subtropical in nature. ASCAT shows winds near 40-45mph away from the centre


Link

Quoting stoormfury:
this area of the northeast coast looks subtropical in nature. ASCAT shows winds near 40-45mph away from the centre


Link

It looks sub-tropical, but in its core its not.

ASCAT pass of the area off the northeast coast which appears subtropical in nature

Link

does anyone have a link to the weather terms and definitions that are commonly used during hurricane season. Thanks

Good Morning.
A big change over the past week in the Tropical Atlantic.
The ITCZ has dropped south again and is now mostly on the Equator. And a new cloud of SAL with dust is coming off Africa.
There was a lot WV evident across the Atl and the Carib islands a week ago. Not much sign of that now.
So, this current dry season is still deeply entrenched and the temp yesterday peaked at 96.8F. Today will be similar.

Another 'quake in Chile. 6.1.
A 5.0 in the Gulf of Paria on Wed. (between Trinidad and Venezuela).

Stormchaser2007 hit it on the nose. This AOI is extra-tropical and the flare-up of convection is being enhanced by the gulf stream (which is a more north than usual).

sst's are never an issue come august. You can have the warmest sea surface temps in the world but if the upper levels aren't supportive no t.c.

For those of you who are wondering if there has been an increase in the number of global earthquakes, the answer is definitely yes! I gathered quake data from the USGS site, and plotted total quakes per year for two magnitudes; equal to or greater than 2.5 (strong enough for humans to sense), and equal to or greater than 4.5 (strong enough to cause damage). Both categories show an increase since the 1970's. The reason for the increase? Your guess is as good as anyone elses. (going short on insurance companies that cover earthquakes is probably a good investment)

Quoting Levi32:
I'd just like some simple things answered about CO2. Such as....why it responds to significant global temperature changes. For instance, increases flattened dramatically at Mauna Loa after the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, and then resumed their climb a few years later. Then they spiked upwards at a faster rate during the 1997-1998 El Nino, when the global temperature reached its highest ever recorded with satellites. A similar spike upwards is observed around the 1972 El Nino, and then a flattening afterwards during the 1973 La Nina. All of these events were associated with dramatic changes in global temperature. The CO2 was obviously not the driver, and yet it changed along with the temp....why? I'm not saying this proves anything, except that there are still some questions to be answered.

Rising air temperature causes sea surface temperatures to rise, releasing CO2 from seawater (and vice versa). What is more signficant is that despite the logarithmic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, global mean sea level continues to rise at the same rate it has during the past century.

Are any satellites tracking the oil slick in the Gulf? any images on line?

Take a look at http://gaiaisangry.com for a compilation of the increasing Earthquakes, Volcanos, etc. - An attempt to pull together some of these interesting parameters. Tom

What passes for "Severe" weather in my neck of northern California:

Current Severe Weather

Record Report

Statement as of 01:35 am PDT on June 10, 2010

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Santa Rosa Airport...

A record rainfall of 0.02 inch(es) was set at Santa Rosa Airport
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 0.01 set in 2005.