Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quiet tornado season wakes up; severe thunderstorm in India leaves 1 million homeless

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on April 23, 2010

After a record quiet start to the 2010 severe weather season, the atmosphere finally unleashed one of its classic violent spring weather days yesterday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tallied 32 tornado reports in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas. Fortunately, most of the storms occurred over uninhabited areas, and no injuries or major damage were reported. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver, has the details on the action in his blog today. The action was focused in a region the Storm Prediction Center had put in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather in yesterday's outlook. This was the first "Moderate Risk" region declared so far this year, which is a record for the latest day in the year this has occurred. According to Rich Thompson, a forecaster at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the previous record latest date for a "Moderate Risk" severe weather day was March 21, 2005. So, we beat the previous record by an entire month, which is a remarkable feat. There has been only one tornado death so far this year, the lowest death toll this far into the season on record. Typically, about half of the 80 or so tornado deaths we average per year have occurred by this point in the season. Yesterday's preliminary tornado count of 32 came close matching the preliminary U.S. tornado count for the entire month of March--36. March was the fourth-quietest March for tornado activity since record keeping began in 1950. The three-year average for March tornadoes is 138. One reason for the quiet tornado season has been the "upside down" winter and early spring we've experienced over North America over the past 3 1/2 months. Temperatures in Canada have been the warmest on record during this period, but have been unusually cold over the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico. Since the instability that severe thunderstorms need to occur comes from warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico encountering cold, dry air from Canada, this year's unusual "upside down" configuration has led to a much more stable than usual atmosphere over tornado alley in the U.S.

Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected western Kansas at 4:40 MDT April 22, 2010. No damage or injuries were reported from the tornado. A second tornado's Doppler radar signature is also visible at the bottom of the image.

Another severe weather outbreak expected today and Saturday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined another "Moderate Risk" region of concern for severe weather today, this time centered over Arkansas, Mississippi, and northern Louisiana (Figure 2.) Tomorrow, the action moves eastwards and will be centered over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This 3-day severe weather event will probably end up being one of the most significant of the year. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will blog about today's action after it is over. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..

Figure 2. Severe weather risk areas for Friday April 23, 2010.

Tornado and associated severe weather leave 1 million homeless in India
The U.S. has the world's most violent and numerous tornadoes, but second place goes to Bangladesh and eastern India. There, warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal often encounters cold, dry air from the Himalayas, setting up the instability needed to support severe thunderstorms. On Tuesday, April 13, and very unstable airmass (CAPE values > 3000) with strong westerly wind shear set up over eastern India, providing the classic set-up for supercell thunderstorms. Radar loops from the Kolkatta radar that day show a severe thunderstorm formed over extreme northeast India, near the Bangladesh border, and moved southeast into Bangladesh. The thunderstorm appeared to form a "bow echo", a configuration that often generates strong winds in excess of hurricane force near the bowed-out portion of the radar echo. Winds of 75 mph affected a large area of densely populated land, killing 137, severely damaging or destroying 200,000 homes, and leaving 1 million homeless. A weak tornado may have accompanied the storm. This may be the greatest number of people ever left homeless by a severe thunderstorm in world history.

Figure 3. Radar image from the Kolkatta Regional Meteorological Centre of the Indian Meteorological Department, showing the severe thunderstorm that killed 137 people and left 1 million homeless. Thanks go to Steve Nesbitt of UIUC for saving this image.

Jeff Masters

Into the Abyss (adkinsadam1)

A little more than April showers... These storms delivered tornadoes and 6 inches of hail! SPC can't seem to figure out that the front range loves these kinds of weather setups.

Funnel at Jericho Texas (live4storms)

Did not get to the ground.

Second Groom, TX Tornado (zach34298)

This is about the best that the tornado ever looked. It was on the ground for a few minutes, before it lifted, and then briefly touched down again.

Categories: Tornado

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1101. Bordonaro 9:39 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 428 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 19 MILES WEST OF LOBELVILLE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LOBELVILLE BY 445 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1102. Patrap 9:40 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
U.S. Severe Weather Map Updated: 4:30 PM CDT on April 24, 2010 — Edit My Time Zone Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1103. Patrap 9:41 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
One a sidenote, Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 42056 Conditions at 42056 as of (3:50 pm CDT) 2050 GMT on 04/24/2010: Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. 5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true ) 5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts 5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts 5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft 5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec 5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec 5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 117 deg true ) 5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in 5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling ) 5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 F 5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 F 5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 F 5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.6 F Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1104. aquak9 9:42 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
looks like another, on the ground or near it, about 15-20 miles west, southwest of Reform, AL. Fixin' to cross over the state line. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1105. beell 9:43 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
On the Southern End: Still need to keep an eye on the complex in central MS. A visible that duplicates the radar grab SQUAK just posted below. The boundary still has potential before the storms cross over. 700mb temps have risen quite a bit-so a bit of a cap over the southern half of MS. Cooler 700mb temps along the AL coast. LFC Heights 700mb Temps Boundary Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

1106. Levi32 9:44 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: Good Afternoon/Evening everyone, what a blow up south of Panama and Costa Rica, we need some rain here in the NW Caribbean, any chances it might get pulled northward? It is very possible that sometime in 6-10 days some tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific could be pulled northward into the western Caribbean by a strong low to mid-level south to southwesterly flow over the western Carib and GOM that will develop during that time. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1107. Patrap 9:44 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1108. Patrap 9:46 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1109. Patrap 9:47 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1110. bappit 9:47 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
From Merriam-Webster: Main Entry: 1ed·dy Pronunciation: \ˈe-dē\ Function: noun Inflected Form(s): plural eddies Etymology: Middle English (Scots) ydy, probably from Old Norse itha Date: 15th century 1 a : a current of water or air running contrary to the main current; especially : a circular current : whirlpool b : something moving similarly 2 : a contrary or circular current (as of thought or policy) Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385

1111. xcool 9:49 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Wind shear drop :))) Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1112. Patrap 9:53 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Yazoo City Tornado Kills Two in Mississippi April 24, 2010 05:24 PM EDT (Updated: April 24, 2010 05:25 PM EDT) views: 266 A massive tornado, reported to be 3/4 of a mile wide, killed two in Yazoo City, Mississippi. The Yazoo City tornado touched down Saturday, injuring dozens of others and ripping the tops off buildings. The tornado whizzed across at least three counties in West-Central Mississippi, heavily damaging at least 20 buildings. An Associated Press news story reports that three counties were conducting a "massive response." Many Yazoo City residents turned to the weather channel to monitor the tornado on the weather radar. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1113. BenBIogger 9:55 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
TNA SST Chart Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1114. Bordonaro 9:55 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
A total od 41 Tornado reports per SPC Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1115. Patrap 9:57 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Raw video,from Yazoo City This afternoon.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1116. Drakoen 9:57 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
There is also a big difference in the upper level circulations in 2005 and 2010. 2005 in April featured an upper level cyclonic circulation while 2010 is featuring an anticyclonic circulation which is favorable for the development of storms and a pattern forecasted to continue as we head into the heart of the season. 2005: *Figure 1. NCEP/NARR Reanalysis of the 200mb Vector Wind Speed Anomalies in m/s for April* 2010 *Figure 2. NCEP/CDAS Climatology 200mb Vector Wind Anomalies in m/s March 24 to April 22 2010* Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1117. Snowlover123 9:58 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: TNA SST Chart WHat does TNA stand for? Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1118. beell 9:58 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Note the backed surface winds over W KY and S IL and the Surface low. This area is underneath a 60 knot LLJ. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

1119. Patrap 10:00 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Emg response raw unedited video from the Tornado.. AddressAmerica — April 24, 2010 — Tornado devistates portions of Mississippi. Video taken at Hwy 49 & Hwy 16 on the south side of Yazoo City. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1120. Snowlover123 10:01 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Unbelieveable. While the storms will weaken, when they get to the Northeastern States, they will dump a whole heck of a lot of rain! 1 and a half to 2 inches can be expected there, in those states. Breaking news from TWC: 2 deaths have been comfirmed in Yazoo City, Mississippi. I believe the NWS ruled the tornado a EF3/4. Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1121. Drakoen 10:02 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123: WHat does TNA stand for? Tropical North Atlantic Index The TNA is currently higher than it was in 2005: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1122. Snowlover123 10:04 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Tornado Warning just to the North of St. Louis: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 443 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BERKELEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAZELWOOD...FLORISSANT...SPANISH LAKE...BLACK JACK...WOOD RIVER... ALTON...GODFREY...WEST ALTON...PORTAGE DES SIOUX...ELSAH AND FOSTERBURG. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1123. Bordonaro 10:05 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123: Unbelieveable. While the storms will weaken, when they get to the Northeastern States, they will dump a whole heck of a lot of rain! 1 and a half to 2 inches can be expected there, in those states. Breaking news from TWC: 2 deaths have been comfirmed in Yazoo City, Mississippi. I believe the NWS ruled the tornado a EF3/4. You may have 2-4" of rain tomorrow in the NE. The biggest risk tomorrow will be large hail and strong winds. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1124. Patrap 10:07 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1125. Levi32 10:07 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased and more northward ITCZ activity over western Africa. SAT (South Atlantic Tropical Index) timeseries: Current SST Anomalies: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1126. Snowlover123 10:08 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
It is starting to get windy here. This could be preliminary wind ahead of the cold front that is producing all of those severe cells. UPDATE: It just began to rain here too... Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1127. Snowlover123 10:09 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Early Image of the Yazoo Tornado.. What did the tornado look like during it's "peak intensity?" Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1128. Patrap 10:11 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Radar from 12:23 approx CDT I saved a "smoothed" file from earlier. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1129. Drakoen 10:11 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased ITCZ activity over western Africa. Current SST Anomalies: Yes, both the ECMWF and the Glosea forecast for that Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1130. MiamiHurricanes09 10:12 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Good Evening Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1131. Snowlover123 10:13 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Still waiting for the Gulf of Guinea to cool down like the European model is forecasting it to do over the next couple months. The Gulf of Guinea started out warm in 2005 as well during the late winter, but became cooler than normal during the hurricane season which promotes increased ITCZ activity over western Africa. Current SST Anomalies: Could this be the hottest water ever recorded for the Tropical Atlantic? (And no, this is not Globally) The whole Pacific looks fairly cold, while the Southern Indian Ocean is normal, and the Northern Atlantic is colder than normal. Global Heat content will collapse of 2011, what Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel is currently denying. He'll see... although it will probably be very warm during this summer, but get globally much colder during the winter months. Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1132. Snowlover123 10:13 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Good Evening And goodnight to you, and everyone. Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

1133. CybrTeddy 10:15 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
For those who are new this season, this is basically why we think 2010 will be an active one. Higher SSTs than 2005 Well above average TCHP in the Caribbean Dying El Nino Lower than average windshear Feel free to add on. I'm sticking with a conservative forecast of 16/7/4 Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1134. BenBIogger 10:16 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Seems like the IOD will stay positive throughout the season Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1135. Levi32 10:17 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
The African Easterly Jet is also behaving similarly to 2005 in April, although it was much stronger in 2005 at this time. The positions, though, are nearly the same, a bit further south than normal in both years. 2005 April mean 600mb vector winds: 2010 April 1st-20th mean 600mb vector winds: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1136. Patrap 10:19 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
A tornado ripped through the Meehan area in Lauderdale County, Miss. on Saturday, April 24, 2010, leaving damage to the Green Grove Missionary Baptist Church. Most of Mississippi is under tornado watches and warnings Saturday as severe weather swept across the South. Gov. Barbour tells AP tornado caused 'utter obliteration' to parts of 1 Miss. county; 2 killed By HOLBROOK MOHR , Associated Press Last update: April 24, 2010 - 5:03 PM A tornado damaged the Green Grove Missionary Baptist Church in Meehan, Miss. YAZOO CITY, Miss. - Tornadoes ripped through the Southeast on Saturday, killing two people in Mississippi and injuring more than a dozen others. Gov. Haley Barbour told The Associated Press there was "utter obliteration" in parts of Yazoo County, an area where he is from. About 15 other counties were also damaged, he said. The swath of debris forced rescuers to pick up some of the injured on all-terrain vehicles after a 3/4-mile wide tornado touched down in at least three counties in the west-central part of the state. Yazoo City Mayor McArthur Straughter said the county coroner confirmed the two deaths. Tornadoes were also reported in Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama, and the severe weather continued to track eastward. In Yazoo City about 40 miles north of Jackson, stunned residents stood on a hill overlooking the destruction. A National Guard helicopter sat nearby, waiting to Barbour on an aerial tour. "Sad, man," said 22-year-old Rafael Scott, shaking his head. "It's really hard to believe it. I heard they found a couple of bodies." Three broken crosses stood near a flattened church, and religious materials were scattered among twisted steel, broken wood and furniture. Near the church, a funeral home was reduced to rubble. In a nearby patch of woods, pieces of tin were twisted high up in the broken trees. Straughter, the mayor, estimated about 15 to 20 buildings had been heavily damaged. Downed power lines and trees blocked roads, Straughter said as sirens whined in the background. At least four people had been brought by four-wheeler to a triage center at an old discount store parking lot. Three counties were conducting a massive response, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency spokesman Greg Flynn said. Jim Pollard, a spokesman for American Medical Response ambulance service, said two patients from Yazoo County were airlifted to the University of Mississippi Medical Center in Jackson. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

1137. plywoodstatenative 10:20 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Drak, Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1138. Levi32 10:21 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The African Easterly Jet is also behaving similarly to 2005 in April, although it was much stronger in 2005 at this time. The positions, though, are nearly the same, a bit further south than normal in both years. 2005 April mean 600mb vector winds: 2010 April 1st-20th mean 600mb vector winds: However, the following month, in May of 2005, the AEJ shifted significantly to the north, ending up further north than normal for that time of year. Interestingly enough, there is some model support for the ITCZ to shift significantly northward from its current southerly position over the Atlantic during the first week of May. This makes sense given the overall pattern as well. May 2005 mean 600mb vector winds: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1139. beell 10:22 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN MO AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 242214Z - 242315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES. EVOLVING QLCS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS MOVING E-NEWD AT 30 KT ACROSS THE MS RIVER AT 22Z. INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB PER HR/ ARE NOTED INVOF/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MO...WITH STRONGLY BACKED ELY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF QLCS AND IN THE WAKE OF ANVIL CANOPY OVER ERN/CENTRAL IL. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET CORE POSITIONED OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL FAVOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION INTO CENTRAL IL...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THUS...QLCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN LINCOLN VWP. ..GARNER.. 04/24/2010 Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

1140. Levi32 10:23 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123: Could this be the hottest water ever recorded for the Tropical Atlantic? (And no, this is not Globally) The whole Pacific looks fairly cold, while the Southern Indian Ocean is normal, and the Northern Atlantic is colder than normal. Global Heat content will collapse of 2011, what Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel is currently denying. He'll see... although it will probably be very warm during this summer, but get globally much colder during the winter months. We have had the highest SST anomalies ever recorded in the Atlantic MDR for both February and March, and likely this month as well. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1141. Drakoen 10:23 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
The Glosea forecast for anomalously higher heights over Canada for the June-July-August period similar to how it was in 2005. 2010: *Figure 1. Glosea Ensemble forecast of the 500hpa height anomalies for the June-July-August period* 2005: *Figure 2. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis of the 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Anomalies in meters for the June through August period in 2005* Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1142. Drakoen 10:25 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: Drak, Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin? Yes. You can go here and click on Surface Currents over SSH to see the loop currents and their heights. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1143. plywoodstatenative 10:26 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: Drak, Is there anyway to compare the levels and variance of the eddies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean basin? From 2005 at this time to present location of eddies. Member Since:* November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1144. plywoodstatenative 10:28 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
so basically this season looks to be another version of a hyper season much like we saw in 05 or worse? Any idea of what CSU is saying in the way of landfall ideas of the systems? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1145. Drakoen 10:28 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: From 2005 at this time to present location of eddies. Go that that same link I gave you in post 1142 and click on snapshot archive and you will have access to the graphics from 2005. Member Since:* October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1146. Tropicsweatherpr 10:29 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
How does the subsurface waters in the Pacific look today? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8223

1147. Drakoen 10:30 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
2005: 2010: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1148. Drakoen 10:31 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: How does the subsurface waters in the Pacific look today? Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1149. plywoodstatenative 10:31 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Whats the prediction on severe weather for the South between tomorrow and Tuesday from this front? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1150. Levi32 10:33 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: so basically this season looks to be another version of a hyper season much like we saw in 05 or worse? Any idea of what CSU is saying in the way of landfall ideas of the systems? From their April Forecast PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%) 2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%) 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%) PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W) 1) 58% (average for last century is 42%) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I don't know about beating 2005....there were a lot of middle-of-nowhere systems that year that contributed to the number, but in terms of total impact on the United States and Caribbean countries, I would say this year could easily rival 2005 and 2004 if the steering patterns set up the way some models are showing right now. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1151. BenBIogger 10:33 PM GMT on April 24, 2010
I wonder how this season will react to the positive QBO. Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

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