Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.
On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.
Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.
That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.
Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.
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I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.
Jeff Masters
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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
6 May 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Yesterday they had a conference here for hurricane prepardness with some guy from Impact Weather out of Houston. He said all the storm should go to Florida or up the East coast this year. I guess we will see..
From Monthly Ocean Briefing
Yeah. Never know. But if that negative NAO hangs around it will be a whole different story. Doesn't look like our lil buddy El Nino will still be around.
Okay...
Hmm that was unexpected. Here it is near 35W south of 10N. It's very weak.
That is what i was thinking... Doesn't sound like he pays to much attention. I hope our Emergency Response Teams take other views into consideration as well and not depend on one person.
You mean 88 degrees? LOL!
Wow! That would be something. How many, if any, Cape Verde storms have there been in June?
I dont believe there has been any... Betha I think was the earliest and strongest in July... somebody correct me if I am wrong
post1043 aspectre "Thanks for the heads-up. Certainly closer to other US-affecting offshore blowouts: 8,000to10,000barrels per day averaged over 10days at Santa Barbara; and 11,000to12,000barrels per day averaged over 295days at Ixtoc I, Gulf of Mexico.
The ExxonValdiz wreck spilled ~11million gallons. At 5,000barrels/210,000gallons per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill will reach that level by June11th.
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th."
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005
5May2010
7Jun2005
5May2010
7Jun2005
5May2010
Because this is a case where cold water is starting to upwell to the surface in the central Pacific first, and it will expand eastward with time. The recent Kelvin Wave also helped keep waters warm in the eastern Pacific.
The Ixtoc I oil spill and Padre Island
Closeup of 20to25centimetre/8to10inch thick tarmat
Sorry about that. I forgot that IE users are browsing under a severe handicap.
Unfortunately, this site won't a link to a Google cache page. And their 3May05 cache of http://www.drillingahead.com/forum/topics/transocean-deepwater-horizon-1 is more interesting than the current page.
Click on image to view original size in a new window
Surface trough has been analyzed for 72 hrs.
Alright....haven't been watching the maps so I could only see the ones since yesterday.
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