Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.
On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.
Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.
That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.
Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.
Next Post
I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I believe that is the spot where our 1st tropical system will form in about two weeks.
If you look at the ITCZ, all the energy being sent from Africa is funneling right up into that area...off Panama.
It's only a matter of time now...
I hope this works...
Hi jeff, yes your right this is florida. and you said i would get some rain. bravo to you.
PensacolaDoug and I were fishing on a dock at Bayou Davenport in Warrington when a tropical depression began to form right above us.
Eventually, the depression moved off to the south and west and went into LA...but before it did, it dropped copious amounts of rain on us.
In one of the downbursts, the rain came hard and straight down, but stopped at the edge of the dock we were on. We were not getting wet at all, not a drop, but we could stick our arm out over the edge of the dock and put it into the rain up to our shoulder.
The rain snaked across the bayou out in front of us. It looked like a solid wall.
...the crane lifted the containment box from the deck and into the Gulf after 10 p.m. CDT, dark oil clinging to its white sides as it entered the water and disappeared below the surface.
The technology has been used a few times in shallow waters, but never at such extreme depths -- 5,000 feet down, where the water pressure is enough to crush a submarine.
The box -- which looks a lot like a peaked, 40-foot-high outhouse, especially on the inside, with its rough timber framing -- must be accurately positioned over the well, or it could damage the leaking pipe and make the problem worse.
BP spokesman Doug Suttles said he is not concerned about that happening. Underwater robots have been clearing pieces of pipe and other debris near where the box will be placed to avoid complications.
"We do not believe it could make things worse," he said.
Other risks include ice clogs in the pipes -- a problem that crews will try to prevent by continuously pumping in warm water and methanol -- and the danger of explosion when separating the mix of oil, gas and water that is brought to the surface.
"I'm worried about every part, as you can imagine," said David Clarkson, BP vice president of engineering projects.
If the box works, a second one now being built may be used to deal with a second, smaller leak from the sea floor.
"Hopefully, it will work better than they expect," Peake, said.
Big Polluter has credibility issues.
At least the engineer on the ground says he's worried.
From the NWS
...FL...
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL ENHANCE THERMAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG SEA
BREEZES LATER TODAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA. NWLY FLOW AT
MID LEVELS IS A EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THURSDAY...THUS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MULTI CELL...AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
as my grandfather always said
wait things happen
True............. :)
Yup.....I think this little "thingie" down there may have officially kicked off our "blob watch" this season.
that, oddly enough, makes a lot of sense to me...
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