Hurricane tracks, changes in hurricane clustering, and other notes from Tucson
I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. This is the premier scientific conference on hurricanes, and is held only once every two years, so pretty much all of the world's greatest hurricane experts are here. Below are some quick snapshots of four of the talks I attended yesterday; I hope to more more snapshots each day this week.
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami/RSMAS showed how different weather and climate patterns affect the Azores-Bermuda High, and thus the tracks of Atlantic hurricanes. She divided storms into straight-moving storms that move straight west-northwest through the Caribbean, recurving landfalling hurricane that hit the east coast of the U.S., and recurving ocean storms that miss land. Roughly 1/3 of all hurricanes between 1950 - 2009 fell into each of these three categories. These proportions stayed pretty constant during La Niña and neutral years, but El Niño caused a weakening of the high, resulting in far fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S. East Coast. These storms instead recurved out to sea.
Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin separated all Atlantic storms from 1950 - 2007 into 4 clusters, based on genesis location. Two of the clusters were more northerly-forming storms that tended to be less tropical in nature--Gulf of Mexico storms, and storms off the U.S. East Coast that tended to recurve. The other two clusters were more southerly tropical-origin systems--ones that tended to form in the Caribbean, and storms that form near the Cape Verde Island region off the coast of Africa. The more tropical Cape Verde and Caribbean storms dominated major hurricane frequency by a factor of four. In mid-1980s, there was an abrupt shift to more of these more dangerous tropical type storms--ten years prior to the active hurricane period that began in 1995. It is unknown what caused this shift. The shift is unlikely to be a result of measurement error, since we had good satellite imagery then. Independent of any trends in frequency, this shift caused an increase in intensity metrics of Atlantic hurricanes. A doubling of these tropical systems has also occurred since 1950. Interestingly, there has been no change in the number of Gulf of Mexico storms, and a slight increase in storms forming off of the U.S. East Coast. Since slight changes in track can make a big difference in what SSTs and atmospheric environment a storm sees, there is a lot of natural "noise" in the system that will make it difficult to get a clear sense of when climate change is having a substantial impact on hurricane intensity.
Bin Wang of the University of Miami studied the global number of storm days from 1965 - 2008, which should be a less sensitive quantity to data problems than the number of storms or their intensity. Storm days were defined as any day when a tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or greater existed. However, there are still some data problems, as evidenced by a sharp drop in storm days observed in the North Indian Ocean beginning in 1978. Dr. Wang found that there was no global trend in storm days. The Atlantic was the only individual basin that showed an increase in storm days.
Greg Holland of NCAR looked at the distribution of the strongest hurricanes over time by using a mathematical description of the historical hurricane data. His analysis showed that during the period 1995 - 2008, we probably had about a 30% increase in Category 5 storms in the Atlantic, and an 18% increase in Category 4 hurricanes. Using a climate model, he predicted that by the years 2045 - 2055, we should see a 60% increase in Cat 5s, 32% increase in Cat 4s, and 16% increase in Cat 3s in the Atlantic.
Jeff Masters
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LOL Edited...
i have always said storms are getting stronger faster and more often this little timbit shows my assumtions may be right
Is/will there be a way to see these particular studies?
Storage
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1484&tstamp=&page=16#comment_754
18 Patrap http://www.wwltv.com/news/Oil-enters-on-La-marshes-edges-into-key-current-94433189.html BP concedes more oil spilling into Gulf than first estimated
1485 663 Patrap http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/doc/2931/556359/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1484&tstamp=&page=16#comment_791
503. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 9:22 PM GMT on May 20, 2010 Hide this comment.
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blog1469 post971 presslord "new estimate: 5000 barrels per day"
post1043 aspectre "Thanks for the heads-up. Certainly closer to other US-affecting offshore blowouts: 8,000to10,000barrels per day averaged over 10days at Santa Barbara; and 11,000to12,000barrels per day averaged over 295days at Ixtoc I, Gulf of Mexico.
The ExxonValdiz wreck spilled ~11million gallons. At 5,000barrels/210,000gallons per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill will reach that level by June11th.
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th."
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005
11May2010
7Jun2005
11May2010
7Jun2005
11May2010
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS (Colbert)
CLIMATE MODULATION OF NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE TRACKS: OBSERVATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS (Kossin)
Rambling from the last blog..Weather456~ if nothing much pulls together in a few weeks when the MJO, Tropical wave & front event occurs, I suspect we'll see the chance of someone drowning somewhere rise significantly. Nashville is reeling from that last event.
FEMA announces additional 15 counties eligible for Disaster Unemployment Insurance
I am surprised i am no thearing more about how warm the SSTs are (inside and outside of the MDR).
thanks for the update
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Frontal activity would lead me to believe more sub-tropical, which is also more typical of late May in the tropics.
You don't usually get subtropical storms in the Caribbean in May. The system on the GFS is of fully tropical origin. The front coming down from the north is a separate entity and would only serve to pull the system north or northeastward, as is typical with early-season tropical cyclones.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
I wasn't actually referring to the convective feedback on the 2 week GFS. I was referring to my post about the Farmers Almanac. Gulf origin storms are quite common in late May, early June and as a result of a decaying frontal boundary.
But every day were closing in on the time when the GOM,or the Western Carribean is gonna"pop"..literally.
I thought we had to wait 50 years to see that.
The tropical atmosphere is also hot, second to 1998.
El Nino is not always good. The implications don't stay in the year of occurrence, it extends to the next year.
It is really hot here in the Caribbean.
check out my 2010 outlook.
and the very warm ssts have caused forecasters to predict numbers averaging 16 named storms.
Do you think this wave will be able to hang around till the mjo arrives? And if so, do you think it will be able to find a time and place that has low enough shear to allow some development?
I didn't read that all the storms would recurve into Florida. But seasons 2005 and 2008 being tossed around as analogs is disturbing. Apparently Bastardi likes 2008 tracks for this year. Guess we'll see if he's right.
"NEW ORLEANS -- Tar balls have washed ashore in Plaquemines Parish, a result of the massive Gulf oil spill, state wildlife officials said.
The sticky, dark-colored pieces of oil were discovered by Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries staff at South Pass, according to a news release.
Technicians working with oil spill response crews on boom maintenance around Pass a Loutre Wildlife Management Area spotted the tar balls on the southeast side of the area."
We also had the return of the strong fuel smell this morning.
How poetic that the highest likelihood is near the oil volcano.
I checked the water temps in the NE GOM...they're in the mid-upper 70's now. Forecast calls for low 90's here in the inland Florida panhandle in a day or so.
Eighty degree water temps are real close. Water temps at Pensacola and Panama City are 76-77 during the day.
Not
It's possible. The northern half of the wave should be moving through the Caribbean in 7-9 days. With the MJO upward motion pulse expected to arrive sometime after the 15th, it is possible this will coincide with the tropical wave as it moves through the Caribbean. However, whether the wave amplifies and takes advantage of the situation, is what we will need to watch for. The biggest problem I see is that the long-range models don't seem to be willing to retract the subtropical jet out of the Caribbean anytime soon, thus keeping fairly high wind shear over the area for the next 2 weeks. If the equatorial ridge can expand northward enough, there may be a window for some mischief, assuming we get an area of disturbed weather. Right now on the models it looks like any expansion of the equatorial ridge will be primarily due to the heating effect of the MJO due to increased convection over the Caribbean.
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response
Deepwater Horizon Response
DATE: May 12, 2010 09:45:00 CST
Media Advisory: Unified Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.
Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866)-448-5816
Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Key contact numbers
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, Federal On-Scene Coordinator, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles.
What: Unified Command to update media on ongoing operations regarding Deepwater Horizon oil spill response efforts and progress.
Where: Shell Robert Training and Conference Center, 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A Unified Area Command joint information center representative will be at the gate at 1:30 p.m., to escort media.
When: 2 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for press unable to attend: (877) 918-5750. International callers use (312) 470-7364 Password RESPONSE (73776673).
Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net.
To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 1:45 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.
RSVP: Media interested in attending should arrive no earlier than 12:30 p.m.
For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
MEDIA ADVISORY: Dispersant subject matter expert to hold conference call
Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866)-448-5816
Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Key contact numbers
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
WHAT: There will be a question and answer conference call with subject matter experts to discuss details regarding dispersants.
WHO: Administrator Lisa P. Jackson, EPA, Paul Anastas, Assistant Administrator for the Office of Research and Development, EPA, Dana Tulis, Acting Office Director, Office of Emergency Management, EPA, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, NOAA, and Dave Westerholm, Director, NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.
WHEN: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 at 3 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for this event: (888) 324-7105. International callers use (312) 470-0116 Password – RESPONSE (73776673).
NOTE: This is a conference call. Media SHOULD NOT send representatives for this event.
For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
The 600 mb level represents the mid-troposphere which is an ideal level because at this level both surface and upper air conditions are affected.
2010 was warmer than 2009 and 2005 (green and purple line respectively).
2009 was warmer than 2005 in late July and that was due to last year's El Nino and lack of tropical activity (heat just built up). By late July 2005 we had a category 5 and enough cyclones to transport heat.
2010 compared to other years since 1998 is by far the warmest.
This information was taken by the Discoverer program and consisted of observations taken by weather balloons and AMSU
oh, don't tell me about smoke. there did a controlled burn off in the Blue Mountains yesterday and told no one about it, 100's of people were ringing the emergency hotline.
Umm, the conditions that allow a cat5 are so very specific that we have a long-running average of one every 2 years, or by statistics only, a 50% chance of one in any given year.
So his prediction is that we will have a 80% (0.5 + 60%) chance of a cat 5 in any given year, starting as early as 35 years from now. Given how infrequently they happen and how perfect conditions must be, not sure I can possibly give this SWAG classification. Too generous. I'll go with WAG.
Now let's all get excited about the scary, completely certain headlines to come!
"Leading researcher certain there will be 60% more cat 5 hurricanes by 2045!"
(rest of story below Suburban advertisement)
Check out the warm spot just north of the plume and just NE of the active vent.
Link
Im not supper familiar with the geo of iceland but isnt that warm spot right in the area of Katla? I checked it on the visable at 250M and its clear skys in that area so the 37*c is surface temp.
Checking Aqua it has it there too at a more oblique angle thus confirming the clear skys and the heat source being ground.
I dont see the ground in that area being 37*c just from solar radiance.
Can anyone help me confirm this?
That is a bit disconcerting. I don't remember who it was but several bloggers were saying that it was going to be 2004 all over again.
I was just a bit confused with the complete split of tracking.
thanks
Now
48.2°F falling
Updated at 01:40 EST
Yes I saw that about 2004. It is kinda weird because the tracks were different all of those years.
obs began from august 1998
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