Hurricane tracks, changes in hurricane clustering, and other notes from Tucson

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2010

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I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. This is the premier scientific conference on hurricanes, and is held only once every two years, so pretty much all of the world's greatest hurricane experts are here. Below are some quick snapshots of four of the talks I attended yesterday; I hope to more more snapshots each day this week.

Angela Colbert of the University of Miami/RSMAS showed how different weather and climate patterns affect the Azores-Bermuda High, and thus the tracks of Atlantic hurricanes. She divided storms into straight-moving storms that move straight west-northwest through the Caribbean, recurving landfalling hurricane that hit the east coast of the U.S., and recurving ocean storms that miss land. Roughly 1/3 of all hurricanes between 1950 - 2009 fell into each of these three categories. These proportions stayed pretty constant during La Niña and neutral years, but El Niño caused a weakening of the high, resulting in far fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S. East Coast. These storms instead recurved out to sea.

Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin separated all Atlantic storms from 1950 - 2007 into 4 clusters, based on genesis location. Two of the clusters were more northerly-forming storms that tended to be less tropical in nature--Gulf of Mexico storms, and storms off the U.S. East Coast that tended to recurve. The other two clusters were more southerly tropical-origin systems--ones that tended to form in the Caribbean, and storms that form near the Cape Verde Island region off the coast of Africa. The more tropical Cape Verde and Caribbean storms dominated major hurricane frequency by a factor of four. In mid-1980s, there was an abrupt shift to more of these more dangerous tropical type storms--ten years prior to the active hurricane period that began in 1995. It is unknown what caused this shift. The shift is unlikely to be a result of measurement error, since we had good satellite imagery then. Independent of any trends in frequency, this shift caused an increase in intensity metrics of Atlantic hurricanes. A doubling of these tropical systems has also occurred since 1950. Interestingly, there has been no change in the number of Gulf of Mexico storms, and a slight increase in storms forming off of the U.S. East Coast. Since slight changes in track can make a big difference in what SSTs and atmospheric environment a storm sees, there is a lot of natural "noise" in the system that will make it difficult to get a clear sense of when climate change is having a substantial impact on hurricane intensity.

Bin Wang of the University of Miami studied the global number of storm days from 1965 - 2008, which should be a less sensitive quantity to data problems than the number of storms or their intensity. Storm days were defined as any day when a tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or greater existed. However, there are still some data problems, as evidenced by a sharp drop in storm days observed in the North Indian Ocean beginning in 1978. Dr. Wang found that there was no global trend in storm days. The Atlantic was the only individual basin that showed an increase in storm days.

Greg Holland of NCAR looked at the distribution of the strongest hurricanes over time by using a mathematical description of the historical hurricane data. His analysis showed that during the period 1995 - 2008, we probably had about a 30% increase in Category 5 storms in the Atlantic, and an 18% increase in Category 4 hurricanes. Using a climate model, he predicted that by the years 2045 - 2055, we should see a 60% increase in Cat 5s, 32% increase in Cat 4s, and 16% increase in Cat 3s in the Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

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RGB satellite animations show pronounce turning along the wave. Looks to a be amplifying. I highly doubt formation of this wave over the next couple of days.
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The Wave (embedded along the ITCZ) does look very impressive for this time of the year but just dodging under steady sheer of 30 knots just to the North, with favorable low sheer, right now, all the way "into" the South American coast and Venezuela....IMHO, I don't think the sheer to the North will allow it to develop into much beyond a wave but impressive nonetheless......Another "sign" of the prevalent moisture in this region as the ITCZ slowly lifts to the North...
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137. xcool
first named storm by may 21 i hope i'm rigth...
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


I just read it. Good point. However we are stuck with the reality that people will move to a location for economic, social, and cultural reasons. In Florida we dont even have a unified building code because folks in north Florida believe they dont get "hit" as much. The truth is Port Charlotte was devestated and they didnt get "hit" much either. It only takes one. Unfortunatle people operate with a "put the seatbelt on after the accident" mentallity. Miami learned its lessaon the hard way so too did N.O. I imagine other cities are next. As long as people believe "it wasnt that bad" then we will have this problem especially since some 80 percent of people believe they have been in a Hurricane when all they expereinced was a T-Storm
I was in Charlotte for Charley, if they would have researched deeper, they would have discovered the Charlotte Harbor area has been hit by damaging storms numerous times. That lull from 1960 til 2004 set a lot of people at ease. there were significant storms in between (like 1982) and a few others. But hardly anyone in that area talks about the 1941, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947 storms. ALL caused considerable to extensive damage. 1944 probably being the worst. My neighbors went through it on Boca Grande. 41 to 47 was busy for S.W.Florida. Do the mention it? Not nearly enough.
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134. SLU


ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N32W TO 2N34W MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH AN AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
27W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-35W.



wow .. and it's only May 12th
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


I just read it. Good point. However we are stuck with the reality that people will move to a location for economic, social, and cultural reasons. In Florida we dont even have a unified building code because folks in north Florida believe they dont get "hit" as much. The truth is Port Charlotte was devestated and they didnt get "hit" much either. It only takes one. Unfortunatle people operate with a "put the seatbelt on after the accident" mentallity. Miami learned its lessaon the hard way so too did N.O. I imagine other cities are next. As long as people believe "it wasnt that bad" then we will have this problem especially since some 80 percent of people believe they have been in a Hurricane when all they expereinced was a T-Storm


there is a "unified" building code. In florida Administrative Code and the Florida Standard Building Code, and it was made very strict for the entire state post andrew. If you live right across the state line and have a house built, the same identical house by the same builder, say Jubilee Homes or Jim Walter, the house in fla will be ten thousand more just due to the stricter building codes. Also, Mobile Homes must be "Zone 3" or something like that, built sturdier than for other states. Also, it is almost impossible to get insurance on an older mobile home, and you can't get a mobile home permit in most Florida Coastal Counties unless your MH is the proper "zone".
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132. xcool
wow Convergence .i Give Wave 33%
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That is a vigorous wave.. looks like it keeps chugging and getting more convection
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Quoting xcool:



Levi32





I'm not surprised that that is showing up due to the impressive low-level turning with inverted-V signature and atmospheric environment near the wave. Things are hostile just to the north, but right over the wave atmospheric conditions are decent. The favorability is being illustrated by the high upper-level divergence and surface convergence being observed directly over the wave axis.

Upper Divergence:



Surface Convergence:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Cannot get a better inverted V pattern. The wave is discussed in today's update.

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128. xcool
doabarrelroll .my mom too kind sad
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Quoting MississippiWx:


GOM and waters around the Bahamas have skyrocketed the past week.


My insurance rates have skyrocketed the past week
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Levi, I've been watching the sea surface temperatures and TCHP on the AOML site and it seems like there hasn't been a whole lot of warming across the Caribbean over the past week. It's not like it has cooled, more or less just stayed the same. The Gulf and the Bahamas look like they continue to warm steadily to rapidly (mainly because of the large ridge over the area). Just wondering if something has happened over the past week to keep the Caribbean from warming too much over the past week (such as a positive NAO burst or if the AOML isn't totally accurate). Thanks!


Well the NAO is still negative at the moment, but trade winds have been slightly faster than normal through the Caribbean for the past week, due to a strong high pressure area off the southeastern US tightening the pressure gradient over the Caribbean. This would increase evaporation and tend to limit the warming of the SSTs, which may have had an effect in recent days.

Low-level wind anomalies:



The Caribbean isn't truly stalled though. The reality is you don't usually get widespread TCHP higher than this even during the height of the season. During the past week, it may seem like not much has changed in the Caribbean, but when you compare a week ago to today, the warmth has really been spreading into the NW Caribbean, as you can see those oranges now deepening in that area.

May 4th:



May 11th:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting Weather456:
The AMO is sky rocketing



GOM and waters around the Bahamas have skyrocketed the past week.
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Quoting hydrus:
Excellent post. If you have time, read post# 66.


I just read it. Good point. However we are stuck with the reality that people will move to a location for economic, social, and cultural reasons. In Florida we dont even have a unified building code because folks in north Florida believe they dont get "hit" as much. The truth is Port Charlotte was devestated and they didnt get "hit" much either. It only takes one. Unfortunatle people operate with a "put the seatbelt on after the accident" mentallity. Miami learned its lessaon the hard way so too did N.O. I imagine other cities are next. As long as people believe "it wasnt that bad" then we will have this problem especially since some 80 percent of people believe they have been in a Hurricane when all they expereinced was a T-Storm
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123. xcool



Levi32



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122. xcool
cmc 30hr
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The AMO is sky rocketing

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This tropical wave along 36W is really impressing me right now for how far south it is.

High-resolution visible loop



850mb vorticity along the axis continues to increase.



A pronounced wind turn from northeast to southeast is observed in the low and mid levels.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
119. xcool
The pump is being primed as the AMO continues to warm and is now reading a positive .478. To put that in perspective, this is the warmest April reading on record! Quite frankly this appears to be the hurricane season setup for the kind of winter we had. In other words, one that can produce the extreme season, and it may be that the already ramped up forecast I have had out may not be ramped up enough. But for now, the message stays as is. The latest 90-day SOI is up to 1.73... still not in Nina territory but most certainly no longer in the warm event.

It is interesting to note that the GFS is going right to the 11-year cycle/flipping nino analog as far as temps next week and the week beyond. The pattern of trying to slam a trough into the West, pumping ridges over the northern Plains and the Great Lakes, which then invites trough splits over the East and encourages them in the central Atlantic, all line up with a pump that primes itself for major ventilation over the tropical areas as well as much more warmth nationwide than has been indicated on the CFS. Interestingly enough, we do see some "disconnects" in the active hurricane season, where some are not as hot as others over the nation's midsection, and the active El Nino summers (for example 2004) can be cool. But there is a huge battle this year with the CFS and other models and other analogs, that favor the overall summer for the United States being hotter than last year. If one looks at even the current CFS, it looks like LAST SUMMER. But the heat is coming next week and beyond, centered over the northern and central Plains. Interestingly enough the current cold across the nation is not without its European bretheren. Snow has been falling into northern England... not Scotland but all the way to the Yorkshire Dales where it hit -5C. I guess afternoon tea will have to be extra hot there. By the way, one of the people I want Dr. Mann to take on in debate, Dr. Willie Soon, has been interviewed by Kirk Myers and this can be seen here.


by joe
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


1) Miami has got very high building codes
2)Older Miami which was not directly hit by Andrew was does not
3)Older Miami is in deep trouble since there is a population density in that area of 10,000 people per square mile one of the highest in the nation.
4) Gainesville Florida has not seen a major hurricane in 60 years so none of the houses are equipped to handel that. Period. One cat 2 or 3 now would devestate that city.

Your point is valid excpet that we cannot go back and rebuild houses that are already occupied
Excellent post. If you have time, read post# 66.
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Quoting Levi32:


That means the Atlantic SSTs are very warm, and the Atlantic tripole is active, both of which are very favorable for this hurricane season.


Levi, I've been watching the sea surface temperatures and TCHP on the AOML site and it seems like there hasn't been a whole lot of warming across the Caribbean over the past week. It's not like it has cooled, more or less just stayed the same. The Gulf and the Bahamas look like they continue to warm steadily to rapidly (mainly because of the large ridge over the area). Just wondering if something has happened over the past week to keep the Caribbean from warming too much over the past week (such as a positive NAO burst or if the AOML isn't totally accurate). Thanks!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Some on here seem to think they do have a crystal ball [:)] but you are exactly correct.....Trends, based upon analog comparison versus current conditions, can be made which is exactly what is done in so many of the recognized "pre-season" forcasts from the pros, and, many of the good and knowledgable bloggers on here. Problem is that this is not an exact science and most of the important factors (SSTs/Sheer/Trofs/A-B High Position, etc.) typically can change, and sometimes suddenly, during a typical season. I don't recall if it was 2008 or 2007 (my old mind) but one of those seasons was forcasted at above average and sheer took over in September and shut the whole season down "early" so to speak........This year promises to be a very interesting/intense one at some point but I am sure that few surprises or anomolies may certainly pop up as well....It's looking really bad right now, but, it ain't over till it's over.....


That's true there are always surprises and anomalies. Ike was an example in 2008. I remember someone saying that a storm where he was never went into the gulf. He changed the rules. :)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


You forgot wind shear...you can have 100 degree water but if wind shear is too strong you won't get storm development...shear forecast anyone?

It was high yesterday i believe
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114. xcool








???????
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Quoting FatPenguin:
I have a feeling that this time next week, May 19th, things are going to get interesting.

Too much warm water = powder keg looking for a spark.


You forgot wind shear...you can have 100 degree water but if wind shear is too strong you won't get storm development...shear forecast anyone?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What does that mean?


That means the Atlantic SSTs are very warm, and the Atlantic tripole is active, both of which are very favorable for this hurricane season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What does that mean?
Ridiculously high water temperatures for hurricanes to feed on.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


And of all the predictions that would be the most important. I haven't heard anyone predict anything more specific than trends. Don't see what's wrong with discussing that. Nobody's claiming they have a crystal ball.


Some on here seem to think they do have a crystal ball [:)] but you are exactly correct.....Trends, based upon analog comparison versus current conditions, can be made which is exactly what is done in so many of the recognized "pre-season" forcasts from the pros, and, many of the good and knowledgable bloggers on here. Problem is that this is not an exact science and most of the important factors (SSTs/Sheer/Trofs/A-B High Position, etc.) typically can change, and sometimes suddenly, during a typical season. I don't recall if it was 2008 or 2007 (my old mind) but one of those seasons was forcasted at above average and sheer took over in September and shut the whole season down "early" so to speak........This year promises to be a very interesting/intense one at some point but I am sure that few surprises or anomolies may certainly pop up as well....It's looking really bad right now, but, it ain't over till it's over.....
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TEXASGULF-Good post. Even though they have buildings that can stand high winds, I have only seen one supposedly surge proof house. They build houses to code here in Florida, but most of them cannot stand the surge or flooding. But of course they keep right on building in those dangerous areas. Someday they will stop.
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Just copied this off the news section:

By H. JOSEF HEBERT AND FREDERIC J. FROMMER, Associated Press Writers H. Josef Hebert And Frederic J. Frommer, Associated Press Writers – 28 mins ago

WASHINGTON – A key safety device known as the blowout preventer used in the BP oil rig in the Gulf had a hydraulic leak and other problems that likely prevented it from working as designed, congressional investigators said Wednesday.

They also said BP PLC and other documents also indicated confusion over whether poor pipe integrity was allowing methane gas to leak into the well just hours before the explosion that killed 11 workers and blew the well open.

Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., said that BP had informed his House committee that at some point when the well was being closed with cement an influx of methane entered the wellhead, indicating that cementing the well had not produced needed pipe integrity.

Waxman, opening a hearing into the April 20 well explosion that unleashed a massive oil spill, said while "we have far more questions than answers" it appeared clear — from BP and other documents — that there were problems with the blowout preventers before the accident and confusion almost right up to the time of the explosion over the success of the cementing process.

The committee said that there were at least "four significant problems with the blowout preventer" used on the Deepwater Horizon drill rig.

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., said that a 2001 report by Transocean, which made the device, indicated there can be as many as 260 failure possibilities in the equipment. The device is supposed to be the final safeguard against a well blowout by clamping down and sealing a gushing oil well.

"How can a device that has 260 failure modes be considered fail-safe?" asked Stupak.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee was to hear from executives of BP, Transocean Ltd, Halliburton, which conducted the cementing on the BP rig, and Cameron Inc.

Stupak said BP confirmed in documents that a leak had been found in the hydraulic system that provides emergency power to a part of the blowout preventer.

When a remote underwater vehicle tried to activate the safety device a loss of hydraulic pressure was detected, said Stupak. When dye was injected "it showed a large leak coming from a loose fitting," said Stupak, citing BP documents.

He said Cameron officials had told the committee the leak was not believed to have been caused by the blowout because other fittings in the system were tight.

Stupak that BP also confirmed that the blowout preventer had been modified so that one of its ram drivers could be used for routine testing and was no longer designed to activate in an emergency. He said after the spill BP "spent a day trying to use this ... useless test ram.
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Quoting Levi32:
Holy cow, the AMO is up to +0.478! That is the highest April reading on record.


What does that mean?
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Pcola. Thanks for spoting the "spot" Like i said I wasnt sure if that was katla or not but something that happened to catch my eye.

I will keep an eye in that area to see if anything changes.
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Quoting TexasGulf:
I understand that the U.S. can expect a significant increase in the annual #'s of Cat-3, Cat-4 and Cat-5 hurricanes in the future including more landfalls from these larger storms.

My irritation is that people (aka communities, government) automatically assume that these stronger storms should wreak the same levels of devestation that we've seen historically from similar storms, only more so in populated areas.

We KNOW how to design houses and buildings which can easily withstand 130-150 mph windloads. The building materials and alternative design choices are available now, where they weren't in the past. If you insist on building a traditional wood frame construction house with high ceilings, open floor plan, lots of windows, standard rafters & joists, beaver-board decking and asphalt shingles... then expect to have problems during the next Cat-4 hurricane. Congratulations for building your own problem rather than building to suit the environment.

Hardy Industries makes an impact resistant concrete roofing shingle similar to hardi-board. It's heavy, fire resistant and extremely durable. That's one example of MANY where choosing a different material could really help. By choosing to modify your home design just a little (yes, it will look different) you can build in lateral support bracing to help your home withstand high winds and even debris impacts.

Given 20-30 years of advanced notice, communities should be wise enough to better protect public buildings, learn to bury electrical & communication lines (no more exposed telephone & electrical poles) and build their infrastructure to where it can withstand all but the most extreme storms with very few problems.

Why we live in denial is beyond me. It took T.S. Allison with heavy flooding rains to make St. Elizibeth's hospital in Beaumont Tx realize that you DON'T put an emergency room in the basement, below street level. Ambulances used to have to go down an incline 8' below street level to drop off patients. The hospital is already in a low-lying area known for flooding. Boy! They were sure suprised when water reached the 1st floor level (street level) and yet there were NO DOORS on that level to receive emergency patients. Common sense should have told them this was coming 10-years in advance. E-room is now located on 1st floor level.

If we stop living in the state of denial and accept the fact that we live in hurricane prone areas and that storms will likely get stronger in future... then we've passed Step #1: Admit the problem. We then need to progress to Step #2: Admit that things cannot continue as they were. Home designs need to change, so maybe home appearances also need to change a little. Step #3: Plan for success, then implement the plan. Stop allowing inappropriate construction in these areas by changing construction codes. Stop allowing public infrastructure to be designed with obvious vulnerabilities.

This is not rocket science. I have done quite a number of windload studies on buildings and structures for hurricane preparedness. You CAN design for the building to survive some of the worst case situations. Unfortunately, you may have to overcome some hurdles first which will affect appearance, building shape or interior space design. Until we are willing to admit the problem, we won't have progressed beyond Step #1.

I see a few examples now and again of communities that made the leap in logic and progressed to Step #2. For every one of those, there are 10 others who are still struggling with Step #1. The Bahamas and Cayman Islands are already well beyond Step #3. Why is the U.S. lagging?




1) Miami has got very high building codes
2)Older Miami which was not directly hit by Andrew was does not
3)Older Miami is in deep trouble since there is a population density in that area of 10,000 people per square mile one of the highest in the nation.
4) Gainesville Florida has not seen a major hurricane in 60 years so none of the houses are equipped to handel that. Period. One cat 2 or 3 now would devestate that city.

Your point is valid excpet that we cannot go back and rebuild houses that are already occupied
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Man this is really cool. The 12z GFS ensembles are in and still showing a very trough-split-ish pattern down the road, with an upper trough jammed into the west and a big ridge over the central U.S. The weak trough in the east then gets dragged out in a positively tilted way off the east coast, and one can see how the tail piece might get cut-off and drift around under the ridge in the GOM, Bahamas, or Caribbean. Such pieces of upper energy can serve as catalysts for tropical development, or they can also provide ventilation in front of a tropical wave coming west, if they are positioned correctly.

12z GFS Ensembles 500mb Day 12:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting Levi32:


I think everyone knows that forecasting specific landfalls for states or towns is ridiculous. However, the general trend of track congregation and potential landfall risk areas can be forecasted before the season starts.


And of all the predictions that would be the most important. I haven't heard anyone predict anything more specific than trends. Don't see what's wrong with discussing that. Nobody's claiming they have a crystal ball.
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The ESPI (ENSO Precipitation Index) is negative for the first time in many months, now at -0.17. Negative values are associated with La Nina.



The Nino 3.4 SSTs continue to fall, and very rapidly too. The latest weekly update is showing the biggest weekly fall yet. We are now officially at neutral conditions according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
I understand that the U.S. can expect a significant increase in the annual #'s of Cat-3, Cat-4 and Cat-5 hurricanes in the future including more landfalls from these larger storms.

My irritation is that people (aka communities, government) automatically assume that these stronger storms should wreak the same levels of devestation that we've seen historically from similar storms, only more so in populated areas.

We KNOW how to design houses and buildings which can easily withstand 130-150 mph windloads. The building materials and alternative design choices are available now, where they weren't in the past. If you insist on building a traditional wood frame construction house with high ceilings, open floor plan, lots of windows, standard rafters & joists, beaver-board decking and asphalt shingles... then expect to have problems during the next Cat-4 hurricane. Congratulations for building your own problem rather than building to suit the environment.

Hardy Industries makes an impact resistant concrete roofing shingle similar to hardi-board. It's heavy, fire resistant and extremely durable. That's one example of MANY where choosing a different material could really help. By choosing to modify your home design just a little (yes, it will look different) you can build in lateral support bracing to help your home withstand high winds and even debris impacts.

Given 20-30 years of advanced notice, communities should be wise enough to better protect public buildings, learn to bury electrical & communication lines (no more exposed telephone & electrical poles) and build their infrastructure to where it can withstand all but the most extreme storms with very few problems.

Why we live in denial is beyond me. It took T.S. Allison with heavy flooding rains to make St. Elizibeth's hospital in Beaumont Tx realize that you DON'T put an emergency room in the basement, below street level. Ambulances used to have to go down an incline 8' below street level to drop off patients. The hospital is already in a low-lying area known for flooding. Boy! They were sure suprised when water reached the 1st floor level (street level) and yet there were NO DOORS on that level to receive emergency patients. Common sense should have told them this was coming 10-years in advance. E-room is now located on 1st floor level.

If we stop living in the state of denial and accept the fact that we live in hurricane prone areas and that storms will likely get stronger in future... then we've passed Step #1: Admit the problem. We then need to progress to Step #2: Admit that things cannot continue as they were. Home designs need to change, so maybe home appearances also need to change a little. Step #3: Plan for success, then implement the plan. Stop allowing inappropriate construction in these areas by changing construction codes. Stop allowing public infrastructure to be designed with obvious vulnerabilities.

This is not rocket science. I have done quite a number of windload studies on buildings and structures for hurricane preparedness. You CAN design for the building to survive some of the worst case situations. Unfortunately, you may have to overcome some hurdles first which will affect appearance, building shape or interior space design. Until we are willing to admit the problem, we won't have progressed beyond Step #1.

I see a few examples now and again of communities that made the leap in logic and progressed to Step #2. For every one of those, there are 10 others who are still struggling with Step #1. The Bahamas and Cayman Islands are already well beyond Step #3. Why is the U.S. lagging?


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Nicely organized tropical wave out there in the CATL.
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Quoting presslord:
We're tryin' to nail down track on May 12?!?!?!?! Reading tea leaves is about as reliable...


You wouldn't believe what we didn't think we could do back in the 50's and 60's. I didn't think I could crawl out of bed this morning either. I love progress LOL.
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Quoting Floodman:


My point is that given very similar conditions, storm track can be slightly to wildly different from one storm to the next, let alone from one storm season to the next; trying to say that "Florida will get hit several times this year because the initial conditions are very similar to 2004" can be extremely misleading. I certainly wouldn't tell the people in the Port St Lucie area that they need to be ready because they're going to get hit twice; that would be foolish at the least and criminal at most because, while overall conditions may be the same, there is no guarantee that a storm will form let alone assume a track similar to one from say, 6 years ago. The trend may be for several storms to make landfall there, but there can be no assurance that the scenario will play out...
Hey Flood. Read post# 96 if you have time.
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Holy cow, the AMO is up to +0.478! That is the highest April reading on record.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting Levi32:


I think everyone knows that forecasting specific landfalls for states or towns is ridiculous. However, the general trend of track congregation and potential landfall risk areas can be forecasted before the season starts.
I agree. If you study all the archived tracks from 1851 to present. You can to some degree, see a pattern there. Look at 1909 for example in the archives. Focus on the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf, insane amount of activity. 1928 and 1999 are worth a look too. I do understand where Flood is coming from. There are almost an infinite amount of factors involved when trying to forecast where these storms will move. The possibilities are endless, sorta lol.
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Quoting Bonedog:
Pcola the link is from Terra the vis image you posted is from Aqua. If you check the link the image doesnt resolve down to the 1km like it does at the site for some reason LOL.

At the 1km resolution you can see the warm spot NE of the current vent plume. If you look at it on the Aqua it would be down and to the left slightly with the way that image is oriented.

Like I said not trying to be ominous or anything but just an anomoly I spoted today.


Finally figured it out. The view you showed needs to be turned CW about 45 degrees for correct orientation. That puts the red area (found it) a little SE of E. Katla is more north. You can see a good map here.
Picture below has proper orientation. Have no idea what the red spot is though, but not Katla, another fissure maybe?

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Quoting nocaneindy:
Thanks, Dr. Masters, for the updates. It's great to get these insights from those in the know. I must say I hope Greg Holland is wrong. A 60% increase in cat 5's, 32% increase in 4's, and 16% in 3's! That is scary beyond words.


That "60% increase in Cat 5's" sure does sound scary - and that's the point. They WANT it to sound scary. How else to push the agenda?

As it's been mentioned, expect the usual news broadcasts, and the usual tie-in to CO2.

But when you consider that there's only two or three cat 5's in a year (and that amount is variable because of other factors), a 60% increase over 3 is another 1.8 per year. Not so scary that way...
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My 2010 Hurricane Prep List iz now completed for the Family plan.

I encourage all in the Zones of impact to do the same.

If one spends 30 minutes a day before June 1 on their preps for the season,..one will be light years ahead of the rush crush,when a system threatens.

2010 Hurricane Preparation

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
I have a feeling that this time next week, May 19th, things are going to get interesting.

Too much warm water = powder keg looking for a spark.
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Quoting Levi32:
Interesting look on the GFS ensembles showing a positively tilted longwave trough stretching out along the east coast with ridging building over top to the north. This is a pattern that can result in trough-splits over the GOM, Bahamas, or Caribbean, sending pieces of cut-off upper energy into these areas that can sometimes help spark tropical mischief. Trough-splits are most common in the early season when midlatitude troughs still dip fairly far south.

6z GFS Ensembles 264-hour 500mb heights/anomalies:



By day 15 the GFS ensembles have the heat building over central America associated with the MJO upward motion pulse.

360-hour GFS ensemble mean 500mb normalized anomaly:



This all means a start to our Rainy Season across the Florida Penisula starting next Monday. Things are going to turn very wet and stormy across Florida in several days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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