Little change to 90L; flow of oil southwards towards Loop Current shuts off
An extratropical low pressure system a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas (90L), has changed little over the past day. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first depression or subtropical storm, and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will be in the high 30 - 40 knot range through Tuesday, though. The high shear combined with the large amount of dry air to 90L's west seen on water vapor satellite loops will greatly hamper transition of this system to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly north and then northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next three days, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday night. Most of the models indicate that Wednesday will be when 90L gets closest to the coast, with a position just off the North or South Carolina coast. All of the major models currently indicate that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly northeastward out to sea late next week as a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south by Wednesday. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to offshore winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.
Heavy rainfall threat for Haiti diminishes
Moisture is expected to increase across most of the Caribbean next week, leading to seasonally heavy rains across much of the region. A concentrated tropical disturbance capable of bringing dangerous flooding rains to Haiti is no longer being indicated, but the normal heavy rains that we can expect this time of year will likely begin affecting the island over the next several weeks.
Flow of oil southward towards the Loop Current shuts off
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds shut off the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current, as seen in the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. This wind direction change should give some relief to the hard-hit Louisiana coast. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current late next week.
Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 8:53am EDT May 22, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current has been cut off. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Oil threat to the Keys uncertain
Satellite imagery from today's pass of NASA's Terra satellite and the European Envisat satellite were inconclusive as to the presence of oil in the Loop Current. It is likely that the oil has dispersed significantly over the 500-mile course it has taken from the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. I expect some oil is close to completing the full loop of the Loop Current and is now headed east towards the Keys, as depicted in the "Uncertainty" area in the latest NOAA 72-hour offshore trajectory forecast. If this estimate is correct, the Keys could see oil as early as Wednesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy, and they note in today's discussion that there appears to be a developing eastward flow of water directly from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Keys. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday. My guess is that the oil will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys, but there is great uncertainty on this.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back with a new post Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Plaquemines officials consider paying for own oil containment effort
Posted on May 22, 2010 at 5:47 PM
Updated today at 11:49 AM
Oil is pushing into more and more stretches of coastal marsh in Plaquemines Parish, with stalks of cane now appearing to wilt from an onslaught of oil.
that is what I have been saying for a week. yes they did well picking up on a feature but had no handle on that feature. They have jumped all over the place. That happens in transition season. they will get better in a few weeks.
LOL.
and yet the models have been successful thus far.
A Comedy of Errors.
Except, it just isnt funny at all at all.
Just seems to me if you are gonna do something, may as well do it right.
BP made the Hole in Hell's sewer,,not the Fisheries of the Marsh.
I'll pass yer quote on to BP my next E-mail out
What happened to the dome that they lowered and were supposed to put over one of the leaks? Is it still sitting on the bottom, doing nothing??????
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES FORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BUT CAN`T RULED OUT SOME MCS
ACTIVITY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE ISLAND. A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY THE LARGE UPPER TROF FCST
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ATLC. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES FCST THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
May 21, 2010: Systems maintenance will be performed on the GOES East and GOES West satellite antenna coaxial cables Monday May 24, 2010. Please expect outages of these data streams that day.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
In my honest opinion, 90L wont be around for much longer, but I maybe wrong.....I'm just sayin...
OK. BUT...filled with water, they would be the same weight as water, and float away. Fill them with some heavy fluid, like oilwell mud (which is basically Barytes), and then you could sell this mud back to BP!
All the animals have to die...
Oily waters...
Keeps gushing all the time...
The wetlands need the tidal water that flushes in and out of them naturally. I think the idea behind sand levees is that they could be easily removed to restore the natural flow once the oil is gone.
Nice Rap!
How about one of the Super Fast-Setting Epoxy's, injected in 2 parts through a nozzle that blends them just before they enter the casing?
No Oz...but I try :)
Not at this rate, I doubt it...
Is the current feed still looking at the riser and is it obscured by oil or looking somewhere else? Patrap, did you see what happened?
-- Changed Discussion --
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IS
PRESENTLY DEVELOPING NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA
TOWARD THE AREA BUT KEEP THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW STALLING ABOUT 250-300 MI SE OF CAPE
LOOKOUT TUE NIGHT AND WED. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS BUILDING SURF AND INCREASING
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS TIME ANY THREAT OF
OCEAN OVERWASH LOOKS MINIMAL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT PUSHES ACROSS ERN NC AND WITH THE
MODELS TRENDING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WE MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. BY SUN NIGHT
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM BEGINS TO DRIFT SEWD AS UPPER N/NWLY FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTE
Looks pretty good in this.
90L is actually doing better than I thought it would by now, I place odds of development at 35%.. up from yesterday. Again I ask, WUmail me if your at all interested in what I have to say about this system (I'll probably say that for the rest of the year) and also, come June 1st i'll be starting a daily Tropical Weather discussion blog.
the center is completely exposed .. and the shear is ripping the convection off the system
It seems to go in cycles as the intensity models have been showing the past few days. Tonight we shall see if convection can redevelop...
Have a look at this Loop then tell me what you see.
Ignore the Intro. The Calypso is one of the Important Ones! Iconic.
90L is still baroclinically driven. A tropical system looking like this would be in pretty bad shape, but we've already gone through this twice and 90L has no problem forming new lows under the area of upper divergence and dumping the old dried-out ones into the low-level flow that leads to their death. We should see another new low try to form to the north of the current one sometime overnight tonight.
13.9°C / 57.0°F rising
Updated at 10:00 EST
Oil response on Grand Isle angers residents, officials
They say the response has been too slow and their anger is now beginning to manifest itself in different ways.
This is suppose to happen with these sorts of systems, or so I've read to many times.
the response is still slow as heck.. I mean honestly waiting an entire week to just try something is really slow.. why not just seal the dam thing already with there mud method, instread of waiting 7 days to do so.
And SE, NE, and NW quadrant!
Looks like there will be some disappointing forecasters from 90L.....Things have not changed and its now very exposed center will probably go pooffff.....from all the dry air.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND SUPPORTS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 24N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N68W 24N70W
21N70W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER INDICATE 8 FT TO
12 FT SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEEN
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE FORMATION OF A UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE CURRENT LOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LOW IS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT LOW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE UNIFIED MAP BETWEEN 24/0000 UTC AND
24/0600. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SECOND LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30N71W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN 55W AND 71W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
57W AND 62W.
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
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