90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TexasGulf:


That Huey P. Long bridge has always been a white-knuckle ride. Originally designed as a single lane each way for wider cars, they put a paint stripe down the middle and made it two lanes each way. You cross the high bridge side-by-side with 18-wheelers, with 18-24 inches separating you from it and a concrete fence on the other side. Then, when you get to mid-span, there is a sudden 2' jog to the right.

When crossing that bridge, I take a middle-of-the-road approach. Give me a ticket, honk if you want... but I'm staying in the middle of the road until I'm off the bridge. The other alternative is find a small car and stay right next to it the whole way.

The Huey P. Long bridge really needs to be widened if not replaced entirely. Two questions though... why would it take 5-years and $1 Billion to renovate an existing bridge?


Its a Huge Train Route and was Originally Built with a Train Trestle as the Primary Mode.Its tough,steel..and a Huge Bridge.
HueyPBridgeWidening — February 08, 2008 — The Huey P. Long Bridge in Jefferson Parish, La. is being constructed in four phases and is scheduled to be complete in 2013. The completed project will include three 11-foot travel lanes in each direction, inside and outside shoulders on the bridge and new signalized intersections to replace the traffic circles at Jefferson Highway and Bridge City Avenue. This is an animation of what the project will look like. For more information, visit www.hueypbridge.com.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Pott....yes! I had a shout out to you!!! Your non-wife does not like to be ignored!!

;)

How could I possibly ignore you!
Yer the biggest Hippo here!!
heheheheh.

How you doing? all is well here in the sunshine/occasional showers. Nice.
Feeling sick when I see what goes on in the Gulf with the oil on shore...
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Doesn't Brad Pitt also have a place in NOLA?

Yes. And Nicholas Cage has like 3 foreclosed homes here, too...

And Trent Resnor (if any of know that one)
And the Mannings.
And Steven "sexual assault" Seagal
And Anne Rice (author)

List ain't small...
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Quoting TexasGulf:


That Huey P. Long bridge has always been a white-knuckle ride. Originally designed as a single lane each way for wider cars, they put a paint stripe down the middle and made it two lanes each way. You cross the high bridge side-by-side with 18-wheelers, with 18-24 inches separating you from it and a concrete fence on the other side. Then, when you get to mid-span, there is a sudden 2' jog to the right.

When crossing that bridge, I take a middle-of-the-road approach. Give me a ticket, honk if you want... but I'm staying in the middle of the road until I'm off the bridge. The other alternative is find a small car and stay right next to it the whole way.

The Huey P. Long bridge really needs to be widened if not replaced entirely. Two questions though... why would it take 5-years and $1 Billion to renovate an existing bridge?

Sounds like a hairy ride...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pott....yes! I had a shout out to you!!! Your non-wife does not like to be ignored!!

;)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

We only saw a stagnation of housing costs, really. And the few problems I know of were more about national lenders in disarray than anything else.

BUT, we have had some strange movements as a result of Katrina...Baton Rouge booming, BR stagnant, BR housing overstocked, BR prices picking back up, all the while more and more of NOLA's metro having folks move back in.

So, the housing price patterns around here would be considered anomalous and the national issue effects hard to determine.


Man thats a good assessment atmo.
I agree and the studies do as well.

We've been insulated in a way due to calamity. It brings a Boom spike,,a deflation, and now a steady rise in Market Value, esp in Properties better protected in some areas too.

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376. jcxt
New pic of spill area from modis.
Big and ugly.

Modis terra

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Quoting NRAamy:
( purple hippo throws a pot at pott )

EH?? Why? Did I miss something here?
How are you, dear One?
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Quoting Patrap:
The Huey P.Long Bridge Widening iz a 5 year Billion dollar job.

We have a blogger here a friend who a Foreman thats on that one.

A infrastructure big Upgrade there.



That Huey P. Long bridge has always been a white-knuckle ride. Originally designed as a single lane each way for wider cars, they put a paint stripe down the middle and made it two lanes each way. You cross the high bridge side-by-side with 18-wheelers, with 18-24 inches separating you from it and a concrete fence on the other side. Then, when you get to mid-span, there is a sudden 2' jog to the right.

When crossing that bridge, I take a middle-of-the-road approach. Give me a ticket, honk if you want... but I'm staying in the middle of the road until I'm off the bridge. The other alternative is find a small car and stay right next to it the whole way.

The Huey P. Long bridge really needs to be widened if not replaced entirely. Two questions though... why would it take 5-years and $1 Billion to renovate an existing bridge?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hello Weather456. Not much talk on the blog about 90L, what's going on with it?


It's not doing much at the moment. I am looking at the satellite loops and not seeing any significant changes in organization. I do see one large circulation with multiple vortices contained within.
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Will the real 90L LLC stand up ? And Hurricane Season 2010 predictions. 5/24/10

Worked real hard on this.. comments are welcomed! :-)
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370. xcool
oh cool.thanks.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
90L Latest RGB

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Pressures remain below average over much of the Caribbean and Western Atlantic.
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( purple hippo throws a pot at pott )
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Quoting xcool:







anticyclone?


anticyclonic outflow

and i suspect as much since its one broad area of low pressure.
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Quoting Weather456:
I suspect a broad area of low pressure will develop either over Central America, the EPAC or the SW Caribbean Sea and find its way into the NW Caribbean. It stands a better chance if most of the energy is either over CA or in the Caribbean Sea. Shear drops low to 20N in 5 days so it should plenty of room to develop, if it does.
Hello Weather456. Not much talk on the blog about 90L, what's going on with it?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CaneWarning:


Texas was pretty lucky in terms of the real estate crash. They didn't really see it. I'm thinking the rest of the states need to see what Texas did right and follow their model. It may be too late for that though.

We only saw a stagnation of housing costs, really. And the few problems I know of were more about national lenders in disarray than anything else.

BUT, we have had some strange movements as a result of Katrina...Baton Rouge booming, BR stagnant, BR housing overstocked, BR prices picking back up, all the while more and more of NOLA's metro having folks move back in.

So, the housing price patterns around here would be considered anomalous and the national issue effects hard to determine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I know what happened in Florida. I also know whats going to happen.


Fill me in then. I think Florida had too many investors. I knew people who bought 5 or 6 properties with exotic mortgages and lost them all as things started to get bad. My property values haven't fallen so much, but then again I live on an island near downtown Tampa so it is still a desirable area. Out in the suburbs though people have lost 50-70% of what they paid for their homes.
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361. xcool
weather 456 .lookat my post 354.thanks
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CaneWarning:


Texas was pretty lucky in terms of the real estate crash. They didn't really see it. I'm thinking the rest of the states need to see what Texas did right and follow their model. It may be too late for that though.
I know what happened in Florida. I also know whats going to happen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22314
Quoting atmoaggie:

That depends on where one makes the mistake of going...and those are "what the market will bear" tourist rates, in the quarter.


Bingo. Locals don't go to bourbon, generally, in the first place.
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Quoting Patrap:
Well John Goodman,James Carville and Sandra Bullock my neighbors here Uptown ,along with James Rivers are real paupers I hear.

JF and I kinda live a tad east of them.

And they never ask us to dinner neither.

Goodman shops at Walgreens and Winn Dixie and parked in a Handicapp spot too.


And he is HUGE.


Doesn't Brad Pitt also have a place in NOLA?
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I suspect a broad area of low pressure will develop either over Central America, the EPAC or the SW Caribbean Sea and find its way into the NW Caribbean. It stands a better chance if most of the energy is either over CA or in the Caribbean Sea. Shear drops low to 20N in 5 days so it should plenty of room to develop, if it does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well John Goodman,James Carville and Sandra Bullock my neighbors here Uptown ,along with James Rivers are real paupers I hear.

JF and I kinda live a tad east of them.

And they never ask us to dinner neither.

Goodman shops at Walgreens and Winn Dixie and parked in a Handicapp spot too.


And he is HUGE.
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the surface low has been drifting west all day, I think they might be underestimating that big high up in new england.
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354. xcool







anticyclone?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:
If this is what having an annual income higher than the national average equates to, you can have it, thanks.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/18/Louisiana-residents-top-happy-survey/UPI-78311261160100/

"CLINTON, N.Y., Dec. 18 (UPI) -- Residents of Louisiana and Hawaii ranked highest, and residents of New York and Connecticut lowest, in a study of happiness in the United States, authors said.

The study of 1.3 million U.S. residents considered congestion, air quality, tax rates and crime levels among other criteria in determining the happiest states in which to live."

atmo: Even with the known issues with air quality and crime, survey says...
...
...
Louisianians among the happiest in the nation.

And wages must be considered relative to costs...

Well waddayaknow! Maybe those NY folks should find out what they drink down there in the Bayou. LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
Good post. And when talking about the recession, they say that areas in the N.E were not even effected by it. Like you said, a $500,000 house in Florida would cost $150,000 in Tennessee.


Texas was pretty lucky in terms of the real estate crash. They didn't really see it. I'm thinking the rest of the states need to see what Texas did right and follow their model. It may be too late for that though.
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350. xcool
ilove be Poor poor.hmmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:

Not much argument here about the non-monetary "costs" of industry.

But hold on there about the "national average" talk...nothing, and I mean nothing here costs as much as it does in NY, Cali, Miami, etc. From groceries to housing, everything is cheaper (except in a very few areas).

Check out HGTV sometime (my wife's fav). A med-sized $150k house here is a $500k smaller house in the places where the income substantially exceeds the national average.

You know what else? Those places seem to be more economically fragile. With their inflated (falsely, IMO) economies, things get bad very quickly as soon as the stock market dips. Take a look at who had the worst of the housing pop and ask why.

Not as bad here as you purport, IMHO...and a lot more honest (as in fair wage and fair costs).
Good post. And when talking about the recession, they say that areas in the N.E were not even effected by it. Like you said, a $500,000 house in Florida would cost $150,000 in Tennessee.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22314
Quoting JFLORIDA:
TRY ORDERING A DRINK IN THE QUARTER FRIDAY NIGHT TOO! you'll pay more than in NYC !

That depends on where one makes the mistake of going...and those are "what the market will bear" tourist rates, in the quarter.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good afternoon!

What's the latest with 90L?


I prefer the large view since it's such a huge storm right now. Theoretically that open center will move NW, stall, break from the front and blow new convection near the center.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
Quoting pottery:

But be careful with these broad stats. As Atmo points out...what is the 'cost of living' there, compared to other States?


Poor is poor. Cost of living is low because of it. There's nothing wrong with being poor though. They are second behind Mississippi.
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If this is what having an annual income higher than the national average equates to, you can have it, thanks.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/18/Louisiana-residents-top-happy-survey/UPI-78311261160100/

"CLINTON, N.Y., Dec. 18 (UPI) -- Residents of Louisiana and Hawaii ranked highest, and residents of New York and Connecticut lowest, in a study of happiness in the United States, authors said.

The study of 1.3 million U.S. residents considered congestion, air quality, tax rates and crime levels among other criteria in determining the happiest states in which to live."

atmo: Even with the known issues with air quality and crime, survey says...
...
...
Louisianians among the happiest in the nation.

And wages must be considered relative to costs...
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Quoting winter123:


Wow that looks nice. Is it being pulled ENE by 90L's large circulation?


The circulation looks to be forming right underneath an anticyclone as well
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Learn About New Orleans

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Visitors

BP Oil Cleanup Presents No Disruption for Visitors to New Orleans- May 20, 2010 - 4:14 p.m. CT: It's business as usual for visitors. The city is welcoming hundreds of thousands of business and leisure visitors this month, including cruise ship passengers. The New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau is closely monitoring cleanup efforts and we are in constant communication with city and state officials at the Command Center. New Orleans is located approximately 100 miles inland, and we do not anticipate any disruption in guest service or impact to visitors, as oil reaches the islands of the extreme coastline of Louisiana, approximately 100 miles from New Orleans. Some restaurants have made alternate arrangements when necessary to procure seafood from other locations while some of the waters are closed for fishing. Quality Louisiana seafood is readily available for consumers to enjoy.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Broad low pressure forming over central america!!!


Wow that looks nice. Is it being pulled ENE by 90L's large circulation?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
Quoting CaneWarning:


Louisiana is one of the poorest states, and New Orleans is one of the poorest cities according to government stats.

But be careful with these broad stats. As Atmo points out...what is the 'cost of living' there, compared to other States?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Louisiana is one of the poorest states, and New Orleans is one of the poorest cities according to government stats.


Yes, but the COL is also very low. So it's proportionate.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Louisiana is one of the poorest states, and New Orleans is one of the poorest cities according to government stats.


Yeah,..Im sure you missed Jazz Fest too.

But 130,000 visitors those 2 weekends didnt.

LOL
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The Huey P.Long Bridge Widening iz a 5 year Billion dollar job.

We have a blogger here a friend who a Foreman thats on that one.

A infrastructure big Upgrade there.



We have the River,,Manufacturing and hundreds of want adds for those with a Job search interest.

I have placed 11 folks, one as recent as from Detroit in a few jobs in the last year alone thru here

Im a Chamber of Commerce Entity...you could say.

Plus,..the Lawyers alone support me.

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334. xcool
keeping watch central america....
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.