Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1851. Cavin Rawlins 2:01 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee: What island you on? So far we have Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, any more? Saint Kitts Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1852. nrtiwlnvragn 2:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
New Blog Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8932

1853. Cavin Rawlins 2:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Saint Kitts Photo Gallery - a special blog on September 19 2009. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1854. eddye 2:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
SO U PEOPLE THINK THIS COULD BE HEADING TO FLORIDA Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 983

1855. nocaneindy 2:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Something I've noticed is how SAL has been lowering off the coast of Africa for the last 10 days or so. Now today it's almost completely gone. Once we get to Cape Verde season, and if this stays the same, watch out! Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 514

1856. kimoskee 2:06 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore? Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1857. BVI 2:19 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee: Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore? Tortola, British Virgin Islands Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

1858. A4Guy 2:26 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week. Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646

1859. stormwatcherCI 2:42 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee: Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore? There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1860. MahFL 2:45 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Shear is down to 10 Kts over 90L. Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

1861. kimoskee 2:48 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more. The power of the internet. Amazing!!! Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1862. smarterthanyou 2:51 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Bermuda Bahama c'mon pretty Mama

1863. kimoskee 2:58 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Key Largo Montego Baby why don't we go... Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1864. kimoskee 3:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Blogs quiet... I guess all the singing ran them away... Better stick with singing in the shower!!! LOL Have a great day. I'll check back later. Peace. Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1865. twhcracker 3:11 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: Could survive in the Gulf? Those are some long odds this morning, ya think? However...I am prepared to fly out to Ft. Lauderdale, FL if I need to do so. Hey Oz, I dont know if people are aware or not... the new international airport, Northwest fla airport just opened and they have all kinds of grand opening introductory deals on flights. Like you can fly from there to orlando, nashville and ohio somewhere one way for 49 bucks. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1866. twhcracker 3:14 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
to tune of beverly hillbillies: come and listen to a story bout a project called top kill it all started from a tune known as drill baby drill Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1867. Skyepony (Mod) 3:33 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting A4Guy: question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week. All the NOAA officials were in Washington for the Oiled Gulf mess hearings so it has been rescheduled for tomorrow the 27th. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29343

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