Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

KOG --- Please use the ignore button NOW --- it will only get worse as the season progresses. I'm pleading with you man, it's for your own good. LOL

Good Morning.

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERMS MODELS ARISE THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM DUE TO ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THE EFFECTS...IF ANY...THAT THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WILL HAVE ON SW AND CENTRAL FL. GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A 1011-1013 WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EURO CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT MORE REASONABLE SHOWING A
MODERATE MOISTURE SURGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED UP POPS ACROSS THE CWA (MAINLY COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS) TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TYPE OF MOISTURE
SURGE.

It alls comes down to the fact that if we have such a consensus in environmental conditions then there shouldn't be such a wide range. What is the least active neutral year and least active La Nina year with the conditions we are seeing now being equal? NOAA needs to ask themselves that question.

Quoting Levi32:


But that's not even the biggest thing. Now that the El Nino's gone they shouldn't even be looking at the Pacific. We know what's gonna happen there. They should be looking at the Atlantic SST profile compared with the rest of the world and see how heat is bundling in the deep tropics of our basin. Anyone who can recognize that would know that we're in for a very bad season. It's not rocket-science, and 2005 is the closest analog in terms of SST profile in the Atlantic. There is a clear imbalance of heat that has to be corrected with our hurricane season this year.

Heat is bundling?

Just the fact that we have waves this strong coming off of Africa now makes me a bit worried

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm sorry but I have no clue what effect the PDO has on the Atlantic.

Long story short, the cold PDO signature in the north Pacific cools most of north America (except the eastern US) and really most of the northern hemisphere from the temperate latitudes northward. The effect is especially profound when the AMO is cold too.

More specifically the PDO can also have an effect on the steering patterns in the Atlantic as it favors east coast ridging.

Quoting FIU2010:
You noticed that double-layered ridge type of a pattern shapping up on the GFS there, Ike? That spells out deep-!@#$ for us, storm-track wise, if it doesn't change anytime soon, you are aware of that, right? That's the tyep of pattern that Drak, 456, and Levi are all forcasting for this season. That also explains why Florida in the middle of all of the action, if you will, this summer. It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to figure that one out, my friend, :(. Keep an eye on the long trend patterns that these models tend to show, instead of only focusing on whether they develop storms or not, trust me, you might learn a thing or two, by doing that, keep it in mind.

Whatever you say.

Quoting Levi32:


Long story short, the cold PDO signature in the north Pacific cools most of north America (except the eastern US) and really most of the northern hemisphere from the temperate latitudes northward. The effect is especially profound when the AMO is cold too.

Oh, thanks!

Quoting bappit:


Heat is bundling?

As in focusing, concentrating in a certain area.

bump

Quoting oddspeed:
any thoughts on this?

Levi, I know there is at least one study [daag, can't remember lead researchers name, but one of the guys at NHC] which documents 1950-2000? and shows that while there isn't a huge difference, neutral years average higher storm numbers [and higher landfalls, too IIRC] than la nina ones. Given the analog years some have been suggesting, I'd think a smaller range with a # like 18/19 in the middle would suggest more accuracy. I think we can realistically expect 18+ named systems this year. I'm not as gung ho about the hurricanes and majors, but there sure is enough fuel out there, and so far SAL conditions seem sufficiently mild to allow at least 1/2 of the 18 to reach hurricane status. I think after they got burned in '05 and '06 forecasters are being a bit more.... cautious..... :o)

From my perspective, the biggest qtn is not how many, but WHERE....

From http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml:

La Niña contributes to reduced vertical wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic which, when combined with conditions associated with the ongoing high activity era and warm Atlantic SSTs, increases the probability of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season (Bell and Chelliah 2006).

Does not seem like they are ignoring anything you are talking about Levi.

Quoting FIU2010:
NOTATION TO IKE, LEELO, MIJO:

You noticed that double-layered ridge type of a pattern shapping up on the GFS there, Ike? That spells out deep-!@#$ for us, storm-track wise, if it doesn't change anytime soon, you are aware of that, right? That's the tyep of pattern that Drak, 456, and Levi are all forcasting for this season. That also explains why Florida in the middle of all of the action, if you will, this summer. It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to figure that one out, my friend, :(. Keep an eye on the long trend patterns that these models tend to show, instead of only focusing on whether they develop storms or not, trust me, you might learn a thing or two, by doing that, keep it in mind.

learn a thing or two the only learning to be done is by you my good olde bud sir

Quoting altesticstorm10:
1998 was a transitional year but not that bad...a modest 14 storms and the Caribbean pretty much spared for the vast majority of the year.

Hmmm,Georges went over me here in PR.

Quoting bappit:
From http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml:

La Niña contributes to reduced vertical wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic which, when combined with conditions associated with the ongoing high activity era and warm Atlantic SSTs, increases the probability of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season (Bell and Chelliah 2006).

Does not seem like they are ignoring anything you are talking about Levi.

That thing you just posted had nothing to do with what I was talking about.

226. Hurricanes101 5:24 PM GMT on May 30, 2010
FIU he wasnt even talking to 456



do you have some type of medical condition that i should be aware of

Quoting Levi32:


Something Bastardi pointed out the other day is that the PDO going cold will cool the northern areas of the world first during this summer, creating an even greater imbalance of heat between the Atlantic tropics and everything else to the north. Don't mistake that for baroclinic instability, this is much more general than that, and hurricanes aren't driven baroclinically. It is a heat imbalance and the earth uses hurricanes to correct that by transporting heat out of the tropics and towards the poles.

You have the most charming teleology.

Satellite imagery and cimss 850mb vorticity reveals a mid level circulation near 15.4N 89.1W moving to the ENE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
226. Hurricanes101 5:24 PM GMT on May 30, 2010
FIU he wasnt even talking to 456



do you have some type of medical condition that i shopld be aware of

???

Quoting FIU2010:
WHAT? isn't it true, Ike? Whatever, but you know it is. You are just scared to admit to me, apparently.

Yeah...I'm scared.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, I know there is at least one study [daag, can't remember lead researchers name, but one of the guys at NHC] which documents 1950-2000? and shows that while there isn't a huge difference, neutral years average higher storm numbers [and higher landfalls, too IIRC] than la nina ones. Given the analog years some have been suggesting, I'd think a smaller range with a # like 18/19 in the middle would suggest more accuracy. I think we can realistically expect 18+ named systems this year. I'm not as gung ho about the hurricanes and majors, but there sure is enough fuel out there, and so far SAL conditions seem sufficiently mild to allow at least 1/2 of the 18 to reach hurricane status. I think after they got burned in '05 and '06 forecasters are being a bit more.... cautious..... :o)

From my perspective, the biggest qtn is not how many, but WHERE....

Yes I pondered that too, until I saw how fast we're plunging into the tank. El Nino procrastinated longer than most coming out of the winter, and the result is a lot of heat still left in the atmosphere while the ocean is turning around faster than the atmosphere can keep up. The result should be less draining of heat out of the Atlantic than we might usually see with a moderate La Nina. This really concerns me, and a cold Pacific just means below-normal tropical seasons for them which focuses heat even more in our basin.

Quoting Weather456:
It alls comes down to the fact that if we have such a consensus in environmental conditions then there shouldn't be such a wide range. What is the least active neutral year and least active La Nina year with the conditions we are seeing now being equal? NOAA needs to ask themselves that question.

Do you have any reason to think that the relative accuracy (percent error) should decrease as the number of storms increases? If the relative accuracy remains constant, the range they give in their predictions should increase as the total increases.

LOW Shear

Quoting bappit:


You have the most charming teleology.

I love you too Bappy. I really do.

I'm out for a while, later all.

Quoting IKE:


Yeah...I'm scared.

LMAO -- you just like the banter don't you?

Quoting Drakoen:
Satellite imagery and cimss 850mb vorticity reveals a mid level circulation near 15.4N 89.1W moving to the ENE

Wow, it's further east than I expected, I think that this could make it to the Gulf of Honduras.

The red dot indicates were Drakoen thinks the mid level circulation is:

Quoting IKE:


Yeah...I'm scared.

iam too for him

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, it's further east than I expected, I think that this could make it to the Gulf of Honduras.

The red dot indicates were Drakoen thinks the mid level circulation is:

Just south of that dot

Miami .YEAH BIG WOW

Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC

Just shows a weak system affecting south Florida.

Quoting Drakoen:


Just south of that dot

My bad. Coordinates are a little sketchy on that image.

x

Gotta head out, ya'll. I'll check in later if I can get 2 a starbucks....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
FIU i have a new primary portrait for you

LOL

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
To say that the Caribbean was 'spared' in 1998 except for Georges and Mitch is like saying in 2005 Louisiana was 'spared' except for Katrina and Rita.

It may not be as well known, but 1998 was the deadliest hurricane season in the Caribbean since 1780.

+

Quoting Drakoen:


Just south of that dot

Based on Steering it should be pulled more Northward soon right?