Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman
A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.
All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.
Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.
Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.
Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.
Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.
Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.
Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.
The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.
Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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He was here last night using the name hurricane07...or at least I think that was the name.
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=uspopulation&met=population&idim=state:12000&dl=en&hl=en&q=flor ida+current+population
:)
We have seen the last of that individual and his dynamic IP.
And if he pops up again,..that IP will be treated like the wack a mole it iz.
Wow, that is a fun little link. I didn't realize that the whole state of Mississippi has about the same number of people as the Tampa Bay area. Interesting stuff.
the logic
of your post
escapes me
I clearly said
'smart'
people
Hey Amy, Oz is Oz not JFV, JFV is a jerk and Oz isn't, he's a good guy and we all love him and what he does, I like his video's. At least he brings something to the table.
So what ur opinion of the Hurricane Season? I hope u been doing fine.
Sheri
Wow I feel the LOVE
wave off africa has waned convection some turning is evident next image just after 3 pm
I got your back, girl.....
:)
:)
Yo, Jeff, who is the new blogger? I hate it when I miss a good early afternoon turmoil.
Then folks can bicycle to the Fla Beaches..LOL
The USA will become a 3rd world country without its oil.
You know you make a very valid point there. Great observation there. We need not bring his name back up or quotes from him.
Sheri
Hey Guys,
I did not mean to start any turmoil by bringing up JFV. I have been a reader and a rare participant of this blog for the last couple of years and that is why I know what kind of comments JFV makes and how he is praying for every storm to hit his area. As I mentioned earlier, I just retired last month and I now have the time to sit here and chat with all of you and hopefully learn something in the process. If CycloneOZ is not JFV then I apologize for the mistake.
:)
There is a bunch of us from LA we just don't yell "it's coming" everytime something is brewing.
Now that makes more sense. Perhaps a doubling of the price will get the oil companies enough money to finance R&D on alternatives and making it happen.
I don't think you are JFV. You can spell and speak English correctly. JFV can't do that.
Best look at what comes from oil..Like that puter, the keyboard, the paint, the Medical Plastics..your gonna need to replace it with what?
Easy to say..hard to get off a Global addiction.
We're just fooling with you. If any of us were really mad, you would have known it by now. Many of us here have developed a very protective stance for each other.......Why I even defend NRAmy. LOL Don't worry about. It was all in fun.
I'd rather the oil companies not be involved at all, but I'd be behind anybody that finds a solution.
Those cloud tops are -80C to -90C, which is not surprising since Phet is over the warmest waters in the world right now, which are greater than 31C in places. Many intense tropical cyclones will attain cloud tops that high. Wilma did it, which is actually rare for an Atlantic hurricane.
I agree, but the vast majority goes into our gas tanks. It's unfortunate.
Link
Look around you and find something that you have that has not been impacted by oil or fossil fuels.
I did it the other day and was amazed at the influence of that stuff on every aspect of our lives.
I thought I found a few, like a wooden sculpture, but it was probably cut by a chain saw, and I had some vegetables growing in the garden, but they came from seed in a package and were fertilized with compost made from stuff that was impacted by the same.
Quite amazing the dependence you have on things that maintain your lifestyle that come from things like oil. Electronics, clothing, and on and on.
Think about it, kinda scary!
GROTHAR!
(Hey, check out a painful truth in my blog...I think you would enjoy.)
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