CSU predicts highly active hurricane season; Cyclone Phet approaching Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 03, 2010

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A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 185% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step up from their April forecast, which called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (51% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (50% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 65% (42% is average.) This is the most aggressive early June forecast ever issued by the CSU group; the previous most aggressive such forecasts were for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, when the CSU team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Both of these forecasts did poorly, particularly the 2006 forecast, as only 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes were observed.

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Weak La Niña conditions should develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) A weaker-than-normal Azores High prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak El Niño to neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1969, the 3rd worst hurricane season of all time, featuring Category 5 Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi; 1966, a relatively average year that featured Category 4 Inez that killed 1,000 people in Haiti; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes are what do 80 - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses the same formula as the past two years, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes) and 2009 hurricane season (prediction: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes; observed: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.) An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

NOAA's 2010 hurricane season forecast
NOAA issued their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season last week. As I discussed in my post on their forecast, NOAA is calling for very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 14 - 23 named storms, 8 - 14 hurricanes, and 3 - 7 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 155% - 270% of normal range. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive."


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
Record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds yesterday, and has weakened slightly to 135 mph winds this morning. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone.

Phet is over very warm waters of 30 - 31°C, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. However, the storm is wrapping in dry air from the Arabian Peninsula, which has caused weakening. Visible satellite imagery from this morning (Figure 2) shows that the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of Phet have been eroded away by dry air. Phet is a small storm, and could fall apart fairly quickly if dry air can penetrate into its core. This should happen later today, since wind shear is on the increase, and the shearing winds should be able to disrupt the circulation enough that dry air can force its way into Phet's eyewall. Phet is fairly small, will miss the most heavily populated areas of Oman, and will likely undergo significant weakening before landfall, so the storm is unlikely to cause the kind of catastrophic flooding that Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 brought to Oman. Gonu killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage. Phet's heaviest rains will be confined to a relatively sparsely populated region of Oman's coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches in 18 hours (Figure 3) can be expected along Oman's coast today, which will likely cause extreme flooding.

After Phet's encounter with Oman, the storm will probably be at tropical storm strength when it makes its second landfall in Pakistan. Heavy rains from Phet will be the major danger for Pakistan, and serious flooding can be expected over southern Pakistan.


Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 2am EDT June 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Oil spill update
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 - 1 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday and Monday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Friday with an analysis of the new TSR hurricane forecast and a new forecast by a promising Florida State University model.

Jeff Masters

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831. xcool
StormW :)
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Quoting StormW:
200mb anti-cyclone overhead at 50W


Was noticing the tropical wave there had a nice outflow appearance. Looks like that wave should make it into the Caribbean. If the high were to move in tandem with the wave, watch out.
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Quoting StormW:
200mb anti-cyclone overhead at 50W


I was noticing that, also the wave looks like it will move north of South America
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827. xcool
TropicalWave .nooone .i'm better that.
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Quoting StormW:
200mb anti-cyclone overhead at 50W


Stormw - gearing up for a lot of sleepless nights?
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...UPPER FEATURE PERSISTING OVER THE WRN-CNTRL GULF COAST...

PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE BETWEEN 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS

NAM WINDS AT 250 MB ARE ANALYZED 10-15 KTS WEAKER THAN OBSERVED
FROM SWRN LA INTO CNTRL AR. GFS WINDS OVER THIS AREA ARE 10-20
KTS WEAK. THE NAM IS ON THE STRONG SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE CORE
OF MID LVL ENERGY FOR MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THE
NAM... BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND 12Z GEFS MEAN HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
SHEARED DEPICTION OF ENERGY VERSUS PREVIOUS CONSENSUS. THE
CANADIAN GLBL IS FASTER THAN OTHER SOLNS WITH EWD PROGRESS OF THE
NRN PART OF THE SYSTEM AND IS DISCOUNTED. WHILE BETTER DEFINITION
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST WOULD SEEM REASONABLE
GIVEN THE RELATIVE
LACK OF INTERACTION FROM NRN STREAM FLOW... THERE IS NOW TOO MUCH
DATA SHOWING SOME WEAKENING TO IGNORE
. THUS WILL FAVOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB PREFERENCE AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

RAUSCH
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
whose picking on you, X?
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823. xcool
StormW hey
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I never laughed so hard about those tornado pictures. Even in Australia they hit trailer parks.
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820. xcool
winter123 troll plz .haha
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Storms have just down right exploded here north of Orlando. Reports of small hail all over the place I just had a 50 mph wind gust. Also, Very strong storms moving quickly toward Tampa Bay in several hours.


I sure hope we get a storm in Tampa. We certainly need the rain. Rainy season has not been all that rainy for us yet. I'm not sure those storms will hold together all the way to the coast though.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting MrstormX:


Thank you, please xcool stop with the caps.

Don't feed the troll! I just did, but only to tell everyone else not to. Appears he's on my ignore list for good reason.
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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT THU JUN 03 2010

VALID 00Z FRI JUN 04 2010 - 00Z SUN JUN 06 2010

A PESKY UPPER LOW NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING AIMLESSLYOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS NEAR AND TO ITS EAST WILL BE WARM AND MOIST...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL
BRING RAINS TO THE PARCHED FARMLANDS OF LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS. TO THE NORTH...A QUICK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BRING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WELCOME RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...RELIEVING EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE HOT AND DRY UNDER THE AEGIS OF
A DEVELOPING WARM-CORE RIDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING PAST
110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS WEEKEND.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


No mention of it going over water.....
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
816. xcool
This funny .now i'm get attacks .wow i come up in here my Mind Buizness ..
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Storms have just down right exploded here north of Orlando. Reports of small hail all over the place I just had a 50 mph wind gust. Also, Very strong storms moving quickly toward Tampa Bay in several hours.
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Quoting IKE:
18Z NAM through 42 hours


Don't see much there. 1008 mb low does come off land for a couple hours but quickly moves into the Louisiana coast.
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LinkSorry in advance Nola2 but its only a little tribute to all the hard working submersibles.
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Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROUGH
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRI AND SAT WILL BRING A RENEWED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WEAK RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CLEARING AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY TAPER THIS EVENING AS THE BAND THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY EJECTS OUT TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM THIS BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
OVER E TX THIS EVENING WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SAT AS A TROF ALONG
THE JET PULLS THE LOW TO THE EAST.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE TROF WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...YIELDING CONTINUED CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME FRI THEN
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ON SAT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA YIELDING INCREASING
TEMPS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BFG

.LONG TERM...
FOR NEXT WEEK A WARMER DRIER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LONG RANGE SOLN WITH
THE GFS BRINGING A TOUGH/FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND THU. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED SOLN WITH A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE US. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A WARMER DRIER PATTERN FOR THE WEEK. THOUGH A ECWMF
IN THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE LONG RANGE...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME
KIND OF POPS IN AS CONFDC IS LOW DUE TO MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES. BFG


Not enough time over water, if it moved over water at all. People have to consider that this system is not warm-core and would take several days over a warm body of water to turn warm core. This disturbance won't have that opportunity.
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811. xcool
Stormchaser2007 / slidell la here. haha
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810. IKE
18Z NAM through 42 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
809. xcool
btwntx08 2weeking lol
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hes from sidell,LA
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807. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROUGH
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRI AND SAT WILL BRING A RENEWED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WEAK RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CLEARING AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY TAPER THIS EVENING AS THE BAND THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY EJECTS OUT TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM THIS BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
OVER E TX THIS EVENING WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SAT AS A TROF ALONG
THE JET PULLS THE LOW TO THE EAST.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE TROF WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...YIELDING CONTINUED CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME FRI THEN
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ON SAT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA YIELDING INCREASING
TEMPS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BFG

.LONG TERM...
FOR NEXT WEEK A WARMER DRIER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LONG RANGE SOLN WITH
THE GFS BRINGING A TOUGH/FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND THU. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED SOLN WITH A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE US. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A WARMER DRIER PATTERN FOR THE WEEK. THOUGH A ECWMF
IN THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE LONG RANGE...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME
KIND OF POPS IN AS CONFDC IS LOW DUE TO MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES. BFG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting AllStar17:


2 weeking?


He's not from the CONUS.
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781 -
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Wow, that looked like a Derecho over the water!
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Quoting xcool:
I would not be surprised to see our first tropical system in a about 2weeking...imo..

i believe its 2 weeks he meant lol
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The system over Texas is in an area of low steering currents. You can see that in the current steering maps. Looks like if it drifts far enough to the east, it will be picked up and taken out to the north and east. Most likely won't have too much time over water, if any at all.

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802. xcool
AllStar17 .yeah
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Quoting caneswatch:
Under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Palm Beach County. Rain falling hard, the wind is picking up, looks like a Tropical Storm outside.


I'd like that; it's been dry as can be here on the SW coast for days and days now thanks to a persistent onshore flow. We need our rainy season to start soon, or it'll be time to break out the lawn sprinklers again... :)
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800. xcool
MrstormX that kool :)
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Quoting xcool:
I would not be surprised to see our first tropical system in a about 2weeking...imo..


2 weeking?
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798. xcool
I would not be surprised to see our first tropical system in a about 2weeking...imo..
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


You should film a test deployment and post it on YouTube!


I guess I will.

/me looks at calendar and scratches head.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


All kinds of free sites and various model outputs here.

How are they progressing getting that cap on?


Not seeing much on the feed i have SJ
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Quoting xcool:
MrstormX .i will.thanks..


Okay thanks... im not normally like this but I have headache so naturally I am more groucy.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
he didnt mean do dude just forget it
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793. IKE
Buoy 42019..60 NM south of Freeport, Texas


Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 149 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 69.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 81.0 °F
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
792. xcool
MrstormX .i will.thanks..
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The area north of Hispaniola bears watching IMO.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I wish I could show you "my solution."

1.5 seconds and it's deployed.


You should film a test deployment and post it on YouTube!
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Under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Palm Beach County. Rain falling hard, the wind is picking up, looks like a Tropical Storm outside.
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Quoting extreme236:


Enough with the caps lock!


Thank you, please xcool stop with the caps.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
786. xcool
extreme236 haha.
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785. xcool
IKE me to .i have son now.
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Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 VERY WEAK


Enough with the caps lock!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I use raleighwx to view the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF. That site is free, the only differnce might be the distance of isobars.


All kinds of free sites and various model outputs here.

How are they progressing getting that cap on?
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782. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
===============================

The Weather System over Arabian Sea
Warning no. 6

Heavy rainfall is continuing to fall over Masirah Island until the time of preparing this warning and over parts of coastal areas of Al-Sharqiya region associated with winds up to 60 knots. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET is centered 70km east of Masirah Island over 20.0N 59.0E with maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is reduced to be around 75 knots and that is because it is approaching the land therefore it is classified as Category 2 cyclone.

Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET will change its direction of movement to be parallel to the eastern coasts of Masirah Island with a speed of 15km/hr and it is expected to enter the land from the area between north of Masirah Island and Ras-alhadd which will affect mainly Alsharqia region with likely a storm surge over the coastal areas of 2 meters.

The rainy convective clouds of this cyclone (PHET) expected to extend to affect Governates of Muscat and Al-buraimi and regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Al-Dhaerah within the next 48 hours

The Directorate request People in the affected areas are to take precautions on the low lands from flowing Wadis because of the heavy rain and Fishermen are also advised to be precautious as seas are expected to be rough along the Sultanate's coastal areas especially the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea as wave heights may reach up to 8 meters. Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) will continue watching the weather situation and give updates accordingly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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