Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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3812. SLU
Quoting Chicklit:

Think of it like those who are responsible both for this mess and cleaning it up, fixing the problem are seeing it from an airplane. They are not on the ground, seeing the wildlife die before their eyes, smelling the fumes, driving the fishermen to the hospital because they lack proper masks. Unfortunately, our government officials appear to be in different airplanes, flying perhaps 10,000 feet lower, but still not on the ground with this issue. There is bottom up organization and top down. After Katrina we were supposed to be gearing for bottom up; obviously, there is still not enough respect for what happens on the ground to ensure decisions are made at this level that will solve problems.


seeing those innocent animals getting caught up in this mess is to me the hardest thing
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3811. pottery
Quoting Weather456:


Look at the lines of latitude and longitude...the latitude line of 5N is shifting due east which suggest the storm is moving west.

Went back. Looked again. Yep!!!
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Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.com Pro

The African wave train is alive early this year and the system near 35 west will be a trackable entity into the Caribbean this weekend, and like the hyper seasons of 1995,and 2005, which had the first storm develop out of an African wave, dont be surprised if that is the case this year. Though fairly far south now, the lower than normal pressures in the subtropics will allow this to move north of west and probably stay out of S America.

-Snowlover123

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3809. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
Circulation can be seen here

Nice. Certainly no northern component in that, so far.
West for sure.
BAH!!
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Quoting pottery:

hmmmm. You will need to show me that in some sort of graphic.
I dont see it moving west in that ?.


Look at the lines of latitude and longitude...the latitude line of 5N is shifting due east which suggest the storm is moving west.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3807. pottery
Quoting pottery:

hmmmm. You will need to show me that in some sort of graphic.
I dont see it moving west in that ?.

But in post 3802, there is pronounced west movement there...
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Circulation can be seen here
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Is 97L too far east to get a proper floater on it?
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3804. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
Storm centered imagery revealed a closed low...moving west

hmmmm. You will need to show me that in some sort of graphic.
I dont see it moving west in that ?.
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Quoting Weather456:


That's normal....I found they don't bother run data at 06Z. Expect 12Z info in the next half hr.


ok
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
the atcf site has not updated on 92L since last night


That's normal....I found they don't bother run data at 06Z. Expect 12Z info in the next half hr.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
the atcf site has not updated on 92L since last night
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Storm centered imagery revealed a closed low...moving west
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting SLU:


Well, well, well ... how much more can we take??????

Think of it like those who are responsible both for this mess and cleaning it up, fixing the problem are seeing it from an airplane. They are not on the ground, seeing the wildlife die before their eyes, smelling the fumes, driving the fishermen to the hospital because they lack proper masks. Unfortunately, our government officials appear to be in different airplanes, flying perhaps 10,000 feet lower, but still not on the ground with this issue. There is bottom up organization and top down. After Katrina we were supposed to be gearing for bottom up; obviously, there is still not enough respect for what happens on the ground to ensure decisions are made at this level that will solve problems.
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3796. pottery
Quoting SLU:


Well, well, well ... how much more can we take??????

Taken too much, already!
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The waning of convection is now indicating independence from the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3794. pottery
Good points, Amiga.
But I am questioning the overall response to the oil on the surface, and impacting the beaches, marshes, economy, ecology, employment, health etc etc..
To my mind, this is where the State needs to be in absolute control.
The images of 6 guys on the beach with shovels is not doing it.........
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3793. SLU
Quoting pottery:

True, on both counts.
No Commitment!!


Well, well, well ... how much more can we take??????
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it is my belief that the models are not handling this shallow system too well and 92L will move in just north of west for a few days i might be wrong but it appears that the TUTT is weakening somewhat thereby reducing the easterly shear on the system. the next 48 hrs will be very crucial for evolution or the demise of this system
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From the NHC 8 a.m. Discussion
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W-42W. ALOFT.

...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR COASTAL SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
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A large system will take some time to consolidate. But it's still amazing to have one out there in June.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormwatcherCI what up did you see them thunderstorms that we has last night anyway what I find interesting on that map that you posted is that purple strip in the SW Caribbean if this pre-TD-1 does make it into the Caribbean and the shear dies down by that time will you be prepaired
Yes, lots of thunder and lightning last night but still no rain. I tend to be as prepared as possible at all times. I don't leave anything until the last minute because the supermarkets go crazy.
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Morning all,Looking at rgb loop the center is tighter than I thought, I have it at around 6.5N/35.2W moving west.
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See...While I agree with most of you and think this thing still has a chance, you had to know that the NHC wasnt going to name it today. I dont think they will even make it a TD today and with them keeping it at 30% that kind of shows you they want more data before they make the call. Maybe red tonight but if they think it will fall apart in the next day or so I dont see them upgrading it.
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hey stormwatcherCI what up did you see them thunderstorms that we has last night anyway what I find interesting on that map that you posted is that purple strip in the SW Caribbean if this pre-TD-1 does make it into the Caribbean and the shear dies down by that time will you be prepaired
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Quoting pottery:Here is a hypothetical question---
If a swarm of heavily armed Troglodites from a foriegn country had landed on the beaches of AL, MS, and Fl, would the Admin still be trying to figure out how many Invaders were on the beach, 55 days after the Landing? Before dealing with the situation??


This is a false comparison. Our government has set up the necessary manpower and equipment to handle invasions. That is what CONUS is for. Before 9/11 that was not necessarily the case, but they have stepped up on their State-side Defense network. This is something within the purvue of the actual military at this point.

To have a good understanding of what is actually happening a mile under water, BP has to allow others besides their own people and equipment to have access to the leak. They have been VERY reluctant to do that. It took Congress yelling at BP executives for them to give government and private party scientists access to the videos of the gusher. That is when the government could finally do their own assessment of what MIGHT be happening down there. Before that, everyone had to rely on BP to provide truthful information..which BP had no desire to do as when the truth came out, their stock went down.

Government scientists could come up with Worse Case Scenarios based on what they knew about the actual pressures and the deposit that BP was drilling, but had little accurate information about the actual leak. They could only take BP's word for things.

Now, the media is correct, they could have publicized those Worse Case Scenarios, but there is a tradition in our country to call those who do that "Doomsayers" and "Chicken Littles" and therefore bureaucrats have learned to keep things quiet no matter what their scientists say until they have "undeniable" proof, which in our country means when oil starts washing on-shore or when our coastlines start disappearing under rising sea-levels. By that time, it is too late to PREVENT disasters, the disaster is already here and THEN people start wondering why the government hasn't acted more forcefully!

Even now, there is a fight with BP to allow scientists to inject dye in the gusher to get a more accurate picture. BP does not want to play ball.

People have to decide whether they want to take scientists seriously and listen to them or if they want to believe what is easiest to believe based on their own life circumstances and for their own convenience. The U.S. culture is one that likes to take the "easy" route until it is too late, and then lo and behold, things are so much MORE expensive and so much HARDER to deal with.
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3784. scott39
Quoting aspectre:
3745 scott39 "Just when i was feeling better, you had to come along! LOL

Too fast for me, I corrected VOCs to VolatileOrganicCompounds.

And you're gonna love this: VOCs make up 30to40% of SweetLightCrude. Some of those VOCs are gonna be dissolved into the seawater well under the surface. And I think DeepwaterHorizon hit a deposit of SweetHeavyCrude, so the amount of VOC's is probably under 30%.

But less bad for inland means worse for the coast cuz that also means the low-volatility oils (kerosene, diesel and heavier), greases, waxes, and asphaltines make up a higher percentage of that crude being spilled.
Im going back to bed.
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3783. pottery
Quoting SLU:
Morning pottery.

The weather is great in TnT this morning .. looks like no chance for the home side today. :(

True, on both counts.
No Commitment!!
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Easterly shear generates positive vort as oppose to westerly shear. The easterly shear from the aej over 92L is what caused it to spin up so far south. The development of thunderstorms on the NE end indicates this has abated....it's following a text book right to TD.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3745 scott39 "Just when i was feeling better, you had to come along! LOL

Too fast for me, I corrected VOCs to VolatileOrganicCompounds.

And you're gonna hate this: VOCs make up 30to40% of SweetLightCrude. Some of those VOCs are gonna be dissolved or mixed into the seawater well under the surface. And I think DeepwaterHorizon hit a deposit of SweetHeavyCrude, so the amount of VOC's is probably under 30%.

But less bad for inland means worse for the coast cuz that also means the low-volatility and non-volatile oils (kerosene, diesel, and heavier), greases, waxes, and asphaltines make up a higher percentage of that crude. Or at least uglier for the coast: VOCs are pretty nasty when applied to living things.
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Ckeck out the RGB loop.

I looked at the shear map from the FSU site. Conditions should remain favorable for at least the next 48 hours.

92L RGB LOOP

It appears that it could develop into a least a week depression before conditions go down hill for it.
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3779. scott39
Quoting pottery:
Conditions around 92L now---
Water Vapour in mid and upper levels are good for development.
SST's are good for development.
SAL and dust are good for development.
Existing Shear, delaying development at present.
Future Shear, er, um, well,.....
Hopefully Future shear is our friend
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3778. SLU
Morning pottery.

The weather is great in TnT this morning .. looks like no chance for the home side today. :(
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3777. pottery
Conditions around 92L now---
Water Vapour in mid and upper levels are good for development.
SST's are good for development.
SAL and dust are good for development.
Existing Shear, delaying development at present.
Future Shear, er, um, well,.....
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Quoting Weather456:


If ur interested I've included those thoughts on my
blog.

Thanks for the info 456, I'll check it out too!
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Mama Nature's more than a little pee'doe. Maybe wants to give everything a good ear washin!
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If the anticyclone can bust through the high ind shear, it looks like the storm may have favorable conditions north of the Islands, though these conditions can change, so I'm not confident.
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3773. scott39
Quoting pottery:
Post 3747, Amiga.
Good Post.
This is a classic case of not being able to have your Kate and Edith too!!
You cannot have The State being excluded from matters of day-to-day administration and at the same time expect fast reaction from The State.

Having said that, one wonders about the ability of The State to respond to crises that that impact like this one.
Frankly, I am not impressed....

Here is a hypothetical question---
If a swarm of heavily armed Troglodites from a foriegn country had landed on the beaches of AL, MS, and Fl, would the Admin still be trying to figure out how many Invaders were on the beach, 55 days after the Landing? Before dealing with the situation??
The answer is----- Of course NOT!! Good analogy Pott!
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Hasn't changed much huh, tag right
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3771. K8eCane
If anyone has a clip of Steve Martin doin King Tut, we better drum it up and hope on this one
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3769. scott39
Quoting miamiamiga:


Because there are laws about deploying our miliatry troops State-side. It is the National Guard that works State-side and there ARE NG troops on stand-by. The problem is NOT manpower. The problem is equipment and having a good understanding of how to proceed in this disaster.

In this case, the government was set up to be the good "free-market, hands-off" government so many people claim they want, and left it to the oil companies to be the first responders in any oil leak. It is obvious BP did not take this responsibility that seriously and was completely taken off-guard.

Now people are clammering for the government to step in, but since they left it to the oil companies to be ready for any disaster, they do not have the equipment or management to meet the challenge. It is SO easy to blaim those in power, but remember, it takes TIME to collect equipment and have the management in place to deploy the equipment. And in unnamed previous administrations, the executive branch actively and intentionally made sure that government would do no such thing.

Perhaps those people who think private corporations will take care of things because it is "good business" will now realize there IS a role for government in our market economy, and that role CANNOT start when disaster strikes, but MUST start well beforehand in order to be affective...oh yeah, I thought the same thing when the economy melted down and then the Tea Party started up. Just goes to show, we citizens of the United States have a hard time looking forward long-term. We are a REACTIVE bunch that yells loud without thinking very hard about what the actual ramifications are if our yelling actually succeeds in changing policy.

If you want the government to be able to handle disasters, you have to give them the opportunity to PREVENT disasters in the first place. That means effective regulation that might inconvenience the short-term profits of our beloved corporations.

my 2 cents.
You make valid points. Were way past the blame game, have you seen the pictures of the beaches all along the coast. No, we dont need manpower a mile underwater where the volcano of oil is. We need manpower on the water and on our shores to be PROACTIVE of whats to come! Clean up,more oil, clean up, hurricanes, more oil clean up, wildlife cleanup, more oil, storm surge with oil, clean up, our local police, and emergency team not only having to deal with evacuations for a hurricane but also a storm surge of oil, and oily rain blown everywhere. We need more help from the government now. We have millions upon millions of oil out of control coming into lives. Lets at least try to manange it better!
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3767. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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3766. IKE
30 PERCENT.
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I think Allen in 1980 ..... I hope I'm wrong
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Morning everyone, waiting on the new TWO
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Visible imagery shows a somewhat broad center but I fail to believe it is remaining this way

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3762. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
morning SLU 456 and the rest ofthe gang
very interesting sunday morning.


What will be most interesting will be the 12Z model runs. I don't believe they ran any models on it at 6Z. So there could be big changes in a couple of the models now that the system seems to be catching on.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.