Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Interesting

Quoting Weather456:
I think readers would find Sunday's blog on the last part of tropical waves interesting. I found a visual diagram of the genesis of waves so a section will just recap the genesis, then much of it will include everything else about waves. This one be easier understood even though I know person understood the first part.

Wikipedia has a good article on tropical cyclogenesis: Link

Quoting DestinJeff:


no sweat. you'll actually get more credibility here by not spamming it. once other bloggers come to know your work, they will gravitate to your blog without being prompted -- or maybe just sparingly prompted.

iam approaching 5000 hits on my blog since the counter started in mar 1 of 2010 before that the last seasons counter from april of 09 till dec 1 09 had over 8000 hits and i never posts links to my blog and may sometimes invite but thats it ya don't need to spam the blog

Hello to everyone on this blog. This site has helped me more than once in planning for emergency evacuations. I look forward to being more active in the blog site and learning more about the Atlantic and Tropics. Good hunting to everyone!

TPW imagery, although less clear, shows how the wave got lifted north and the ITCZ started rotating to the south and east of it, unrelated to the axis.

Quoting Levi32:


No, the wave is to the north in the process of being absorbed. Look at the past loops of vorticity and 650mb winds. You can see the wave come out and then lift north and start getting absorbed while the ITCZ disturbance starts forming to the south. The wave had little or nothing to do with that. It is to the north. The stuff to the south is an ITCZ disturbance which is now starting to be enhanced by the AEJ Jetstreak just to the north which is coming off Africa.

No, you are terribly wrong; the wave is not the farther north as MIMIC-TPW clearly illustrates two peaks within the ITCZ one associated with the surface trough and one associated with the tropical wave. You can even see the kink associated with the tropical wave in the imagery you posted above out ahead of the "ITCZ disturbance." Where you have denoted as remants of the wave is associated with a mid level trough associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over Europe which is creating that kink west of the ridge off the African coast.

Quoting Kibkaos:
Hello to everyone on this blog. This site has helped me more than once in planning for emergency evacuations. I look forward to being more active in the blog site and learning more about the Atlantic and Tropics. Good hunting to everyone!

Welcome. This site has helped me in emergency situations as well. I learned a lot since joining in 2008 after Edouard. Still have a lot to learn though. :)

Quoting Drakoen:


No, you are terribly wrong; the wave is not the farther north as MIMIC-TPW clearly illustrates two peaks within the ITCZ one associated with the surface trough and one associated with the tropical wave. You can even see the kink associated with the tropical wave in the imagery you posted above out ahead of the "ITCZ disturbance." Where you have denoted as remants of the wave is associated with a mid level trough associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over Europe which is creating that kink west of the ridge off the African coast.

Hence why I said it's in the process of being absorbed into a mid-latitude feature. Do you realize this wave came off of Africa extending up to 18N and the axis tracked over the Cape Verde Islands? It is not too hard to imagine this wave was lifted north and absorbed. It's hard to see on satellite imagery because the wave came off so far north that all convection was confined to the ITCZ and the axis was hard to see because it was embedded in dry air and high surface pressures.

Here it is at 6z June 9th just west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Quoting DestinJeff:

I love it!

Quoting StormW:
Good evening, Stef!

Hey Storm!

Quoting Levi32:
Here it is at 6z June 9th just west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Sat shot of it June 9th 6z....embedded mostly in dry air.

Quoting Drakoen:


No, you are terribly wrong; the wave is not the farther north as MIMIC-TPW clearly illustrates two peaks within the ITCZ one associated with the surface trough and one associated with the tropical wave. You can even see the kink associated with the tropical wave in the imagery you posted above out ahead of the "ITCZ disturbance." Where you have denoted as remants of the wave is associated with a mid level trough associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over Europe which is creating that kink west of the ridge off the African coast.

I am wrong all the time...its usually not "terrible"...kidding!

Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting

Then again, there are some areas south of Baffin and west of Banks Island, for example, that were not usually ice-free. Here's the NSIDC sea ice concentration:

i'm wrong 40% time ...

does anyone else see that spin by florida? is it just the way the clouds are forming or am i see it right? thanks in advance

Quoting Levi32:


Hence why I said it's in the process of being absorbed into a mid-latitude feature. Do you realize this wave came off of Africa extending up to 18N and the axis tracked over the Cape Verde Islands? It is not too hard to imagine this wave was lifted north and absorbed. It's hard to see on satellite imagery because the wave came off so far north that all convection was confined to the ITCZ and the axis was hard to see because it was embedded in dry air and high surface pressures.

It is still within the ITCZ and MIMIC-TPW doesn't convince me that the wave is being absored by the mid level cut-off. Looks like the reflection of the mid level cut off at 650mb is in the form of a trough rather than the tropical wave itself which still shows up as a buldge out ahead of the surface trough on MIMIC-TPW.

The wave came off at a lower latitude than you are saying.

Looking at the surface analysis over the past few days the wave slowed down when the surface trough took shape and its associated mid level vorticity helped to slow down the tropical wave.

Hey all. This is a close up of some of the storms the hurricane hunter Kermit has flown into. Is "Palomar" spelled wrong?

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Then again, there are some areas south of Baffin and west of Banks Island, for example, that were not usually ice-free. Here's the NSIDC sea ice concentration:

Interesting impact of wind - L8R

Quoting Drakoen:


It is still within the ITCZ and MIMIC-TPW doesn't convince me that the wave is being absored by the mid level cut-off. Looks like the reflection of the mid level cut off at 650mb is in the form of a trough rather than the tropical wave itself which still shows up as a buldge out ahead of the surface trough on MIMIC-TPW.

The wave came off at a lower latitude than you are saying.

No?

Coming off:



18 hours later the axis is over the Cape Verde Islands:



As I said before, some very weak tropical wave may have passed through this area during the last 3 days, and it may have been the very southern piece of the wave in question, but a good portion of that wave is currently being absorbed into the mid-latitudes. It is not just some random trough that formed in there....look at historical loops and it's clearly the wave. The majority of the northern portion got pulled right out to the north of the ITCZ. The southern part may be partially responsible for the bulge in TPW, but it is hardly a well-defined or full tropical wave anymore, and was not fully responsible for the rotation observed on TPW around 30W which started on June 9th.

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hey all. This is a close up of some of the storms the hurricane hunter Kermit has flown into. Is "Palomar" spelled wrong?

Polamar? O_o?
I guess it meant Paloma?

Quoting StormW:


Yes...the one east of Fla.?

Although it is heading up the Gulf Stream, the convergence and divergence associated with the swirl does not suggest possible development. However there is convection over Georgia.

Quoting JLPR2:


Polamar? O_o?
I guess it meant Paloma?

That's what I thought it was. Didn't know if they flew into another basin that had a different storm name. There's a question. Do they only fly in the Atlantic basin?

Back later.

Quoting Levi32:


No?

Coming off:



18 hours later the axis is over the Cape Verde Islands:



As I said before, some very weak tropical wave may have passed through this area during the last 3 days, and it may have been the very southern piece of the wave in question, but a good portion of that wave is currently being absorbed into the mid-latitudes. It is not just some random trough that formed in there....look at historical loops and it's clearly the wave. The majority of the northern portion got pulled right out to the north of the ITCZ. The southern part may be partially responsible for the bulge in TPW, but it is hardly a well-defined or full tropical wave anymore, and was not fully responsible for the rotation observed on TPW around 30W which started on June 9th.

Looking at the suface analysis from the OPC the wave did indeed come off at a lower latitude. Nothing is being absorbded into the mid latitudes, what you are see the 650mb reflection of a 500mb cut-off. And obviouysly is was not responsible for the vorticity we are seeing at 30W.

The graphics show the northernmost portion of the wave axis over the Cape Verde islands. The bulk of the wave is south of.

Quoting Ossqss:


Interesting impact of wind

Yes, that's a high pressure gyre pushing ice clockwise, and the Gulf Stream north of Russia pushing it counter-clockwise. When I flew over the Beaufort Sea in July 2009, the ice was riveted with cracks and melt ponds.

Also, can we please stop hiding the Quote buttons, they actually don't prevent your post from being quoted and are only bothersome and annoying.

Quoting JLPR2:


Polamar? O_o?
I guess it meant Paloma?

Paloma is Spanish for dove. The hurricane was not very dove-like! However someone on Wikipedia predicted this description the year before.

I am having problems accessing the website so I will have to catch you guys later.

Quoting xcool:

Wow, look at the extratropical systems southeast of Nova Scotia and northeast of Newfoundland. This pattern is going to be a real doozy for Greenland over the next few months.

A close up of other storms they flew through. Kind of hard to make out some of the names. Still trying to figure out the photo stuff.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wikipedia has a good article on tropical cyclogenesis: Link

I'm not sure what that has to do with the post on tropical waves.

Quoting StormW:


It's an upper level feature:

WATER VAPOR LOOP

so what does that mean in terms of development, and is the spin by p.r. anything? i can see a little moisture starting to pop up. any chance of that doing anything? thanks in advance.

Quoting StormW:


No...I don't know how often they do it, but when our AMS toured them at MacDill AFB, they had a storm on the plane from south of the Equator.

Ak ok. Thanks. :) I couldnt think of one question to ask them when they were here. Lol.

AstroHurricane001. nice 850Vorticity at 30w

Quoting DestinJeff:
How is the oilgasm in the gulf doing? No talk of that for awhile ... shear seems to be fairly low in the eastern GOM area, any threats in the offing (near-term disturbances)?

The shear over the extratropical system at 40N is already near zero, and it's decreased by 60 kt in 24 hours!

Quoting xcool:
AstroHurricane001. nice 850Vorticity at 30w

That's associated with another wave located further west than the ITCZ disturbance we are watching. At least per what I'm seeing in the 18z surface analysis:



Be back late tonight.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Paloma is Spanish for dove. The hurricane was not very dove-like! However someone on Wikipedia predicted this description the year before.

yeah, I use the word a lot, that's why I found Polamar weird XD

JLPR2 hey :)

Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 hey :)

Hiya! :D

Just to clarify what Levi and Drak are conversing...that feature north of the ITCZ is what we call a low level wave, not as classic as the 650 mb waves that develop south of the AEJ. I do not think they are analyzed by the TPC until they move SW under the AEJ. So technically Levi is correct. Remember the blog from last Sunday....it is being applied here. The low level waves eventually slid under the AEJ or move north and become rossby waves...i think this wave is doing the latter.