Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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901. caneswatch 5:19 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Sam, that's a scary thought, but like you said, i'll be keeping that in mind. After the one-two punch of Frances-Jeanne in three weeks in 2004, and with how busy this season is supposed to be, it puts me on edge. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

902. KoritheMan 5:20 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: wow, ok, thanks for your assasemnet, nevertheless. Which site are you getting your data from? Not saying it's wrong per se, but the sites we are using could well be in complete opposition to one another. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

903. KoritheMan 5:21 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting 7544: i can see what KoritheMan is saying look where they are steering where all of them are headed right to sf I'll grant you and Siesta that the forecast steering takes it close to Florida, certainly, but not south Florida. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

904. SouthALWX 5:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
siesta .... your type style looks eerily familiar, ..... sir? Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

905. KoritheMan 5:25 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SouthALWX: siesta .... your type style looks eerily familiar, ..... sir? I've thought for like two days now that he's JFV. I'll wait a few more days though, before jumping to a definite conclusion. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

906. caneswatch 5:26 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SouthALWX: siesta .... your type style looks eerily familiar, ..... sir? Only a few letters flip-flopped. I doubt it's JFV, I thought some other user was JFV? Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

907. weatherblog 5:27 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Too early to know if it will hit South Florida or not (or if it will develop at all). Definitely a possibility as Florida gets hit more than any other state. However, it could be bad wherever it goes. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

908. FMTXWMAN 5:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
If you look at the latest WV and Infrared images of the blob just north of Honduras the last few frames show the clouds have begun to rotate. Member Since: May 1, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 66

910. homelesswanderer 5:35 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting weatherblog: Too early to know if it will hit South Florida or not (or if it will develop at all). Definitely a possibility as Florida gets hit more than any other state. However, it could be bad wherever it goes. Wow! No wonder I couldn't find what y'all are talking about. It doesn't exist yet. Lol. Yes if something develops it can go to S.FL. Or anywhere else in the basin. That's way too far away on the model to be showing anything you can count on. Y'all know that. Last week it was sending a major to TX at the end of the run. I mean Texas does get the 2nd most hits. We have the 2nd mot coast line. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

911. KoritheMan 5:35 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: The NHC. The NHC doesn't issue long-range forecasts for entities that aren't considered subtropical or tropical cyclones. I'm confused now. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

912. xcool 5:35 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
oh shi[[[ guess wave at 32w ? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

913. SouthALWX 5:39 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
SKS... does the name janiel ring a bell? He might be a friend of yours? You would both be from south florida. Perhaps you share a body with his other personalities? ;) as far as this wave goes ... it's fun to watch but I feel it has little bearing on the season as a whole. we really need to start pulling for these however as any TC that mixes and evaporates but doesnt bother anyone like this one can will help us later on. Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

914. weatherblog 5:39 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Wow! No wonder I couldn't find what y'all are talking about. It doesn't exist yet. Lol. Yes if something develops it can go to S.FL. Or anywhere else in the basin. That's way too far away on the model to be showing anything you can count on. Y'all know that. Last week it was sending a major to TX at the end of the run. I mean Texas does get the 2nd most hits. We have the 2nd mot coast line. Yes, Texas probably gets the second most. However, IF something were to form and head towards the U.S. (doubt it though), I think anywhere from the western GOM to Florida would be highest at risk. Texas usually gets hit during the peak of the season. Florida gets hit during all of the season because it sticks out so much. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

916. texascoastres 5:41 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
good evening all! haven,t been on since yesterday. can someone give me an update on Alex Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

918. homelesswanderer 5:44 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting weatherblog: Yes, Texas probably gets the second most. However, IF something were to form and head towards the U.S. (doubt it though), I think anywhere from the western GOM to Florida would be highest at risk. Texas usually gets hit during the peak of the season. Florida gets hit during all of the season because it sticks out so much. Yeah I agree about Florida sticking out there. I was just saying that it seems a bit too far out to think steering currents for something the models showing down the road a bit. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

919. xcool 5:46 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

920. caneswatch 5:48 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting texascoastres: good evening all! haven,t been on since yesterday. can someone give me an update on Alex Last I heard, he was doing ok. It was a condition he hads that sent him to the hospital. His sister said he will be out before we know it. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

921. caneswatch 5:49 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yeah I agree about Florida sticking out there. I was just saying that it seems a bit too far out to think steering currents for something the models showing down the road a bit. We always stick out lol. But that's why we get hit so much, we stick out like a sore thumb. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

922. texascoastres 5:53 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
thankyou caneswatch glad to here that! anything exciting happening?! Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

923. homelesswanderer 5:58 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: We always stick out lol. But that's why we get hit so much, we stick out like a sore thumb. This seems to show somthing headed towards Florida but I can't tell where it's coming from. This is the only longer range CMC I could find and it doesn't show south of GOM. Link just hit next. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

924. caneswatch 6:00 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting texascoastres: thankyou caneswatch glad to here that! anything exciting happening?! Not much, just a blob to watch and as for myself, i'm going on vacation for the next two days. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

925. caneswatch 6:02 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: This seems to show somthing headed towards Florida but I can't tell where it's coming from. This is the only longer range CMC I could find and it doesn't show south of GOM. Link just hit next. Seems to be a wave coming from the east, probably a wave that will be rolling off of Africa soon. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

926. homelesswanderer 6:04 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Seems to be a wave coming from the east, probably a wave that will be rolling off of Africa soon. Yeah. After looking at the CMC up to that point that's what it looks like. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

927. xcool 6:08 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
hmm that crazy Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

928. JLPR2 6:09 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting xcool: GFS doesn't do much with it anymore, and I hope it stays like that, I mean, come on! I know there will be plenty of storms passing through that area in late July, August and September, we dont need one there now. XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

929. louisianaboy444 6:11 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Hey JFV lol Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

930. caneswatch 6:11 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yeah. After looking at the CMC up to that point that's what it looks like. The African Wave Train is starting out real early this season. Here's a song with a title that suits for this situation well: Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

931. xcool 6:15 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
LMAO JFV Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

932. JLPR2 6:17 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting xcool: LMAO JFV ... I didn't get it... -.- I want to laugh! XD man, its 2am, no wonder this place is so quiet. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

933. gator23 6:19 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: I'll grant you and Siesta that the forecast steering takes it close* to Florida, certainly, but not south Florida.* There is model support as the NOGAPS shows a weak system. The CMC cuts off as the storm nears the southern Bahamas hundreds of miles from florida. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

934. xcool 6:19 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
JLPR2 .;) 120AM HERE Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

935. homelesswanderer 6:20 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
nm Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

936. gator23 6:20 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: Hey JFV lol its not him, his new handle is something else. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

937. caneswatch 6:20 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: ... I didn't get it... -.- I want to laugh! XD man, its 2am, no wonder this place is so quiet. What name does he go by now? Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

938. JLPR2 6:21 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting xcool: JLPR2 .;) 120AM HERE so I'm one hour ahead, yikes! XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

939. JLPR2 6:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: What name does he go by now? shrugs shoulders no idea man, haven't been on much today, all I know is that he has changed handles more than I changed underwear. XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

940. xcool 6:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
I HAVE NO CLUE . Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

941. SouthALWX 6:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: shrugs shoulders no idea man, haven't been on much today, all I know is that he has changed handles more than I changed underwear. XD no reason why he cant be more than one ... Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

942. JLPR2 6:26 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SouthALWX: no reason why he cant be more than one ... eh... He should stick with one, its starting to get tiring, I mean, come on! How many email addresses does he have? -_- Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

944. caneswatch 6:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: shrugs shoulders no idea man, haven't been on much today, all I know is that he has changed handles more than I changed underwear. XD Haha, that's great. Where's tornadodude been, i've seen him on but i've never gotten the chance to talk to him. We were talking months ago about colleges that have good meteorology schools. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

945. JLPR2 6:33 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: :o Crazy, right? XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

946. JLPR2 6:35 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Haha, that's great. Where's tornadodude been, i've seen him on but i've never gotten the chance to talk to him. We were talking months ago about colleges that have good meteorology schools. He was on yesterday, not sure about today, I actually left the computer and went out. XD and yep I got a hello from him, but didn't really speak that much. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

948. JLPR2 6:37 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: yep here it shows it as a hurricane lol nah, not that deep, but it does look like a TS and it was moving west there :S Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

949. xcool 6:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
lol rob .big hurricane Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

951. xcool 6:40 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
ECMWF :( Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

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