Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

ECMWF :(

Link

see

Quoting xcool:
Link

see

it has only updates till 120hrs

Waiting for the rest -.-

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Solar activity is a bit up moving to the far side - as it swings back around we may see some real activity here.

yeah, I read somewhere that the sun was coming out of a quiet phase and entering a more active one, but I dont remember where I read that. :\

JLPR2 .oh da website..

I'm out for the night. Talk to you guys tomorrow, if I can.

Dear Lord I gues I'm not the only nite owl

haha

bye rob

Link


here

show cat 3 in epac

Quoting btwntx08:
well i g2g good night scott and all

night!

nice cat3

Well, I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone and good morning to others. :D

link didn't work for me, Ike.

Figure we're good for at leas another week. Maybe something to watch on the western carib, no worries, just something to watch.

Then there's way way out east, trop disturbance + trop wave...like east of 35. Even with a week's worth of watching and waiting, it and MJO won't be caught up w/each other. But still...

July could be real ugly..we got flour sugar and eggs, the oven is on, the cake pans are ready. Just waiting on MJO to mix it all together and bake us a cake.

Not sure why the link won't/didn't work.

Wave approaching 35 west is about it for now in the ATL.

has there ever been a time that arctic ice has melted at such a rate?

ike- can you still get local seafood in your area?

Quoting aquak9:
ike- can you still get local seafood in your area?

As far as I know, you can.

Trouble is looming off of the coast, just waiting for a strong SW wind to push it to shore...

" Travis Griggs
Pensacola News Journal

Friday, a large plume of weathered oil was detected nine miles south of Pensacola Pass, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. The plume was two miles wide and stretched 40 miles into the Gulf.

Another plume of non-weathered oil was observed six miles south of Escambia County during state reconnaissance flights.

From here.

The 06z surface analysis has a low pressure between 30-35W.

Ike- I know, it's horrid. Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime. The gulf, destroyed.

Unimaginable.

Peace, ya'll.

00Z UKMET @ 54 hours....

Quoting aquak9:
Ike- I know, it's horrid. Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime. The gulf, destroyed.

Unimaginable.

Peace, ya'll.

Have a nice day!

NHC might mention that wave at 35w.

The GFS shows it moving to near 20N and 60W. It's got a high over it now, but the future doesn't look very promising for it from what I can see.

Morning Ike, aquak9

From the 8:05 AM discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-38W. THE WAVE IS
ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
06N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-36W.

Accuweather...


Few Tropical Waves
Jun 12, 2010 7:01 AM



A fast moving tropical wave located near 86 west and south of 17 north will move across central America into southeast Mexico later Saturday into Saturday night. The primary impacts will be locally heavy rain from Nicaragua and Honduras westward into southeast Mexico.

There are 2 robust tropical waves causing clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern Atlantic. Both of these waves are at a far south latitude, typically unfavorable for development. These waves are located at 35 and 22 west and do have weak low level circulations. Numerous thunderstorms continue to maintain intensity around the center of the systems. Though sea surface water temperatures are favorable for development, moderate southerly wind shear lies in both systems paths. Organization if any will be slow the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Justin Povick

The futures so bright I gotta wear shades. The oils so bright I gotta wear shades:(Link

73.6 outside my window...right now.

Quoting IKE:
The futures so bright I gotta wear shades. The oils so bright I gotta wear shades:(Link

73.6 outside my window...right now.

Morning Ike, I havent heard that one in awhile.

I wonder if when we get in the water at the Gulf now, that when we lay out, the oil sheen will help tan us? LOL

One of the BP gas stations in Mobile had its gas at $2.25 a gallon yesterday. I gave them the finger and filled up across the street to the gas station that was competing with them. Dumb, Dumb BP.

Quoting scott39:
I wonder if when we get in the water at the Gulf now, that when we lay out, the oil sheen will help tan us? LOL

Sun reflecting off of it..lol.

Advantage to oil on the coast...it should keep the drownings down this year in the gulf. Odds of getting bit by a crab or jellyfish should be reduced.

Quoting scott39:
One of the BP gas stations in Mobile had its gas at $2.25 a gallon yesterday. I gave them the finger and filled up across the street to the gas station that was competing with them. Dumb, Dumb BP.

Good for you. I wouldn't give em a penny.

Quoting IKE:


Sun reflecting off of it..lol.

Advantage to oil on the coast...it should keep the drownings down this year in the gulf. Odds of getting bit by a crab or jellyfish should be reduced.

Have they said if its safe or not to swim in? Im not going to because common sense tells me not to, but my son is 18 and he has none right now, so im concerned.

Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Pretty soon, you won't be able to go out in the Gulf at all

Morning all, saw the sad pics on Channel 5 out Mobile from Gulf Shores, thick orange blobs left on the beach from high tide

You're probably right.

Oil washing onshore....in Alabama....




By Ryan Dezember and Robert McClendon

GULF SHORES, Ala. -- Significant stretches of Baldwin County's 32 miles of white sand beach were fouled Friday by tendrils of oil that sloshed ashore, marking the worst contamination to date on Alabama's coast.

Shortly after 1:30 p.m., rust-colored waves began cresting over a near-shore sand bar at Gulf Shores' public beach as hundreds of swimmers and sunbathers looked on.

The oil stretched out parallel to the beach for perhaps 200 yards as it crept into the shallows. The ruddy patch was preceded by a sheen that, through polarized lenses, appeared to flicker as if schools of tiny fish were darting across its surface.

Crowds began to gather at water's edge, unknowingly standing in flecks of oil, snapping cell phone photos, while lifeguards coaxed out stubborn swimmers.

From here.

Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


haha, you forgot to add shark attacks will be down too

True...lol.

Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Pretty soon, you won't be able to go out in the Gulf at all

Morning all, saw the sad pics on Channel 5 out Mobile from Gulf Shores, thick orange blobs left on the beach from high tide

Who makes the decisions for closing done the beaches?

Well....maybe they won't mention the east ATL wave.....





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN