Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010 +2
Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters
Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
Categories: Flood
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1153. MrstormX 3:36 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


Not sure... the only model really developing this is the CMC. Very impressive nonetheless...


GFS 850mb Vorticity is showing an interesting spin, and eventually breaks the convection from the ITCZ. See This: Link
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1154. Stormchaser2007 3:37 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Do you think we'll have a strong cape verde season like 95?



Possibly.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1155. Orcasystems 3:39 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting MrstormX:


Of course its the other two companies fault as well, but BP contracted them to do their work. Usually in agreements like that BP is liable for the actions of its contracted employees, they should have monitored it like any good overseer would do.


Link

Transocean Ltd, the company which owned the offshore rig known as Deepwater Horizon, which exploded in April and caused what has become the worst oil spill in U.S. history, allegedly is trying to hide behind an obscure, century-and-a-half old law to avoid paying damages.

Meanwhile, President Obama last week specifically called out BP, the energy giant that leased Deepwater Horizon, for trying to stiff a shrimp processing plant in Louisiana — even though BP promised Congress that it would pay all legitimate claims.

The federal government has identified Transocean and BP as the responsible party for the monster spill, which is destroying fisheries and wildlife, causing other environmental damage, and threatening economic devastation along a wide swath off the Gulf Coast.

By law, the two companies must pay all of the costs of the spill cleanup, no matter what the total ends up being. The Obama administration last week announced that it had presented BP and “other responsible parties” with a bill for more than $69 million just to reimburse the federal government for its spill response so far.....

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
1157. MrstormX 3:39 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
CMC, GFS, NOGAPS are all showing a tropical storm developing in EPAC and following a similar track to Agatha starting at around +100 hours.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1158. leo305 3:40 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Wow CMC really develops that wave...

and pushes it towards puerto rico...
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752
1159. LoneStarWeather 3:41 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Why are people excited about a wave that will probally not turn into anything?

And we are desperate for something, ANYTHING, to watch lest the blog slides back into more political debates...
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1160. MrstormX 3:41 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link

Transocean Ltd, the company which owned the offshore rig known as Deepwater Horizon, which exploded in April and caused what has become the worst oil spill in U.S. history, allegedly is trying to hide behind an obscure, century-and-a-half old law to avoid paying damages.

Meanwhile, President Obama last week specifically called out BP, the energy giant that leased Deepwater Horizon, for trying to stiff a shrimp processing plant in Louisiana — even though BP promised Congress that it would pay all legitimate claims.

The federal government has identified Transocean and BP as the responsible party for the monster spill, which is destroying fisheries and wildlife, causing other environmental damage, and threatening economic devastation along a wide swath off the Gulf Coast.

By law, the two companies must pay all of the costs of the spill cleanup, no matter what the total ends up being. The Obama administration last week announced that it had presented BP and “other responsible parties” with a bill for more than $69 million just to reimburse the federal government for its spill response so far.....



Im pretty sure all that means is that BP is going to pay on behalf of transocean, because of their contract agreement.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1163. Orcasystems 3:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting leo305:
Wow CMC really develops that wave...

and pushes it towards puerto rico...


cmc 2010061200 Forecast slp Java Animation

Gives us one in the Atlantic & EPAC.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
1164. MrstormX 3:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting leo305:
Wow CMC really develops that wave...

and pushes it towards puerto rico...


Thats semi-unreasonable, give the TUTT and shear accompanying it.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1165. Stormchaser2007 3:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting leo305:
Wow CMC really develops that wave...

and pushes it towards puerto rico...


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1167. MrstormX 3:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting StormW:
Nice RGB loop

CATL RGB LOOP


StormW have you seen the EPAC storm developed by CMC and GFS yet.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1169. indianrivguy 3:43 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Orcasystems:




Your using logic.. it has a tendency of confusing people.

People seem to forget, if BP is not a strong financially viable company... and you try your hardest to drive them under...or out of the country.... who is going to pay to cleanup the mess?

I don't hear anyone trying to hang the other two companies involved... is it because they are American companies.. yet still just as responsible for the actions as BP?




cmon bro... BP was/is running the show. We Americans hate Halliburton with a passion, and it is they that botched the cement job.. again, BUT, all fingers point at the corporate decision to continue with BP. When the clues started showing up that there were problems it was BP that said "carry on" It is interesting that somehow nearly 7 hours of data mysteriously "disappeared" when this went down. BP wanted Deepwater Horizon off the site so they could move a production rig onto the well and start making money. Ultimately, BP was running the show, so they are the flagship of responsibility and blame by the public, but I seriously doubt that the "name" of the company, or it's country of origin has much to do with the anger... just my opinion.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1786
1170. Stormchaser2007 3:43 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
FWIW

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1172. 7544 3:44 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
morming all hmmm

Link

invest soon ? interesting
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925
1173. Patrap 3:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
NASA's DC-8 Flying Lab Heads to Australia for Hayabusa Re-entry

Yiannis Karavas, a student at the Dexter/Southfield Schools in Brookline, Mass., and instructor and principal investigator Ron Dantowitz of the schools' Clay Center Observatory install the Red-1 large format video imaging camera on NASA's DC-8.Yiannis Karavas, a student at the Dexter/Southfield Schools in Brookline, Mass., and instructor and principal investigator Ron Dantowitz of the schools' Clay Center Observatory install the Red-1 large format video imaging camera on NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory prior to the Hayabusa spacecraft re-entry imaging mission. (NASA/ Tom Tschida) A planeload of scientists and specialized instruments aboard NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory is scheduled to depart NASA’s Dryden Aircraft Operations Facility at Palmdale, Calif., for Australia Tuesday evening, June 8, to catch a glimpse of the fiery return of a Japanese spacecraft to Earth on June 13.

The group of astronomers from NASA, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and other institutions are flying to Melbourne, Australia to make final preparations for the highly anticipated return of JAXA's Hayabusa spacecraft, which may bring back to Earth a sample of the near-Earth asteroid Itokawa. Hayabusa is expected to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and land in the Woomera Test Range in southern Australia late Sunday night, June 13.

The team of 27 astronomers will have their instruments focused out the DC-8's specialized windows as it cruises at an altitude of 39,000 feet, far above light pollution and clouds. Using their suite of spectroscopic and radiometric imaging instruments, they hope to get a clear reading on what happens during the fiery re-entry process when the spacecraft descends like an artificial meteor at more than 27,000 mph.

At the same time, ground-based observation teams will attempt to reconstruct the as-flown trajectory to correlate with the airborne imaging data.

Hideyuki Tanno of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency's Kakuda Space Center carefully aligns the twin lenses of his hand-held digital imaging cameras mounted in NASA's DC-8.Hideyuki Tanno of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency's Kakuda Space Center carefully aligns the twin lenses of his hand-held digital imaging cameras mounted in NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory in preparation for the Hayabusa spacecraft re-entry imaging mission. (NASA / Tom Tschida) Following its launch in 2003, Hayabusa arrived at Itokawa in September 2005 and observing the asteroid's shape, terrain, mineral composition, gravity and other aspects over the next 2 ½ months. Hayabusa briefly touched down on Itokawa's surface that November to sample surface material.

NASA’s primary goal during the airborne mission is to study the re-entry of Hayabusa's 40-pound sample return capsule to enable heat shield designers and engineers gain technological insight for the development of NASA's future exploration vehicles.

Astronomers made similar airborne studies from NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory for the September 2008 re-entry of the European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle "Jules Verne," as well as the January 2006 Stardust sample return re-entry over Utah. During those missions, scientists studied the levels of radiation, light and out-gassing of the descending spacecraft, to better understand meteor and heat shield radiation mechanisms.

NASA's Science Mission Directorate is supporting the airborne observation of the Hayabusa SRC re-entry via the In-Space Propulsion Technology Project.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
1174. errantlythought 3:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link

Transocean Ltd, the company which owned the offshore rig known as Deepwater Horizon, which exploded in April and caused what has become the worst oil spill in U.S. history, allegedly is trying to hide behind an obscure, century-and-a-half old law to avoid paying damages.

Meanwhile, President Obama last week specifically called out BP, the energy giant that leased Deepwater Horizon, for trying to stiff a shrimp processing plant in Louisiana — even though BP promised Congress that it would pay all legitimate claims.

The federal government has identified Transocean and BP as the responsible party for the monster spill, which is destroying fisheries and wildlife, causing other environmental damage, and threatening economic devastation along a wide swath off the Gulf Coast.

By law, the two companies must pay all of the costs of the spill cleanup, no matter what the total ends up being. The Obama administration last week announced that it had presented BP and “other responsible parties” with a bill for more than $69 million just to reimburse the federal government for its spill response so far.....



Again, please stop linking to this horrible blog post. This was out at the beginning of may. Trying to associate it with 'companies already trying to get out of it!!!' in june is silly.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
1175. MrstormX 3:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting 7544:
morming all hmmm

Link

invest soon ? interesting


3 possible if the two EPACs also happen.
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1177. 7544 3:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
wave starting to spin now thanks storm w
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925
1178. Drakoen 3:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Didn't realize the NOGAPS was developing it too. Still need more reliable models to jump on this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
1179. MrstormX 3:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:
Didn't realize the NOGAPS was developing it too. Still need more reliable models to jump on this.


Drak, check GFS 850mb vorticity.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
1183. tornadodude 3:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jun 12, 9:53 am CDT

Fair

87 °F
(31 °C)
Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: SW 12 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 96 °F (36 °C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
1184. Stormchaser2007 3:50 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
12z GFS

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1185. Stormchaser2007 3:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I think the east pacific will be more active than the atlantic this year.My forecast,16,7,4.Not going any higher than that.


Thats pretty unreasonable.

Especially for a La Nina.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1187. AllStar17 3:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting sleetman1:
i been saying that all along the pacific is about to get very active...elnino is still out there


Your mistaken. El Nino has been dead for a while.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135
1188. errantlythought 3:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting sleetman1:
i been saying that all along the pacific is about to get very active...elnino is still out there




Uh, no?
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
1190. spathy 3:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Good points Orca and Atmo.
We do not want BP to go under.
Talk about adding fuel to a disaster and a recession.
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490
1191. Stormchaser2007 3:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting AllStar17:


Your mistaken. El Nino has been dead for a while.


Your really rendering the ignore feature useless.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1192. extreme236 3:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
12Z GFS doesn't keep this wave organized much past 36 hours. CMC looks interesting.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1193. Patrap 3:53 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 20 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

90.6 °F

Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.6 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Steady)

Heat Index: 106 °F

Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
1195. Stormchaser2007 3:53 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
El nino is dead.Were in nutrual,and going into a possible la nina.


Possible La Nina?

We should be in a La Nina in 1-3 weeks.

We're at -.4 C. La Nina is -.5
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1197. 7544 3:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
so we now have the

gfs
cmc
ngp

all develope this wave so maybe by this time tomorow we could be talking about 92l or sooner correct looks like it from here stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925
1198. errantlythought 3:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting sleetman1:
all star is disagree my own opinion...


Your opinion doesn't matter when evidence points to the contrary, I'm sorry to say.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
1199. AllStar17 3:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Your really rendering the ignore feature useless.


Well, I'm ignoring him now.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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