Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

new cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

smashes the system into the northern antilles, and potentially puerto rico as a very strong system

SW I Kinda agree about the invest tagging but will stretch the period to next week. If and when it does happen, I cannot recall an invest tagged so far east so early in the season.

Quoting StormW:
Just looking at the 12Z wind shear forecast...We should see an INVEST designation within the next 24 hours. Depending on the motion and speed, I would not rule out the slim chance of a tropical depression prior to the Caribbean.

Wouldn't it be something if our first system develops in the CATL in June.

Quoting leo305:
new cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animat ion

smashes the system into the northern antilles, and potentially puerto rico as a very strong system

Wow:

144 Hours

At some point, when the remaining dollar costs of this disaster resolve to an industry-acceptable level coupled with a low enough stock price, BP will become an attractive target for a takeover by another oil company. Life goes on in the oil patch. A good bit of those jobs dependant on this corporation will remain.

BP had their chance at grabbing for the brass ring of deep-water exploration and failed.

Or maybe they just won't be as profitable for a couple years.

the NHC should atleast put a 0% circle around it.. but with CMC being so consistent on it forming, along with some other models, I would say a strong yellow or even orange is necessay for 2PM.

Quoting Weather456:
SW I Kinda agree about the invest tagging but will stretch the period to next week. If and when it does happen, I cannot recall an invest tagged so far east so early in the season.

There is a first for everything

Quoting hurricane23:
This wave will have to get through the grave yard first if it wants to do anything. Nice jet streak coming from the gulf through the Caribbean and out into the open atl.

Waves do that all the time...TD 10's open wave from August 2005.

What we have to keep in mind the axis of tropical waves don't disappear due to upper westerlies....lessens the chances of development but the wave remains.

Quoting leo305:
the NHC should atleast put a 0% circle around it.. but with CMC being so consistent on it forming, along with some other models, I would say a strong yellow or even orange is necessay for 2PM.

It's good that they're taking there time with it, a yellow circle would be nice, but not necessary.

I was reading the thread earlier about boycotting BP and wanted to make a couple of points. While it's certainly not fair to the individual station owners who bear no responsibility for the on-going disaster in the gulf it is completely understandable to want to hurt the company any way we can and boycotts are good for that. However knee-jerk reactions are seldom good. About the last thing we need right now is for BP to go out of business. If they implode, the American taxpayers will be on the hook for the clean-up bill. We need BP to survive at least in the near-term, if only to keep writing the checks. Patrap said earlier BP was negligent and criminal. Negligent most certainly, criminality will be determined in the investigation. I'm all for the investigation and if BP's actions are found to be criminal, then put 'em in jail. While they are investigating, lets make sure they take a look governments oversight as well. There may be some "crimanl negligence" there too.

Quoting MrstormX:


There is a first for everything

In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.

I read Years ago that if a system becomes a depression east of the Antilles, it has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I was reading the thread earlier about boycotting BP and wanted to make a couple of points. While it's certainly not fair to the individual station owners who bear no responsibility for the on-going disaster in the gulf it is completely understandable to want to hurt the company any way we can and boycotts are good for that. However knee-jerk reactions are seldom good. About the last thing we need right now is for BP to go out of business. If they implode, the American taxpayers will be on the hook for the clean-up bill. We need BP to survive at least in the near-term, if only to keep writing the checks. Patrap said earlier BP was negligent and criminal. Negligent most certainly, criminality will be determined in the investigation. I'm all for the investigation and if BP's actions are found to be criminal, then put 'em in jail. While they are investigating, lets make sure they take a look governments oversight as well. There may be some "crimanl negligence" there too.

My grandfather owns 6 BP station here in Miami.

Did Drak and Levi get the "trough/wave" debate resolved between them?

12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear as it crosses the islands.

Quoting Weather456:


In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.

Yup.

Weather456:

Don't see this going to Bahamas; Wave to too far south and - High pressures are forecast for the next 2 weeks on South East of the USA -hence the very warm temperatures for that region!
Way too early to say where is this wave going apart from hitting the Lower Antilles!?

Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear.

the system will by pass the shear once it gets to the antilles (maybe why its forecasted to strengthen there, after the gradual strengthening over the atlantic)

Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear.

Looks like a weak tropical storm as it approaches the northern Antilles and U.S Virgin Islands.

Quoting leo305:
the NHC should atleast put a 0% circle around it.. but with CMC being so consistent on it forming, along with some other models, I would say a strong yellow or even orange is necessay for 2PM.

Only 1 model develops the wave.

Also, historically, CMC model is one of the worst ones out there!!

Quoting Weather456:


In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.

Yes im not implying this will be the first, but eventually it will happen.

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Well the idiocy was not enforcing the regulations in the first place - hardly Obama's fault - esp considering the WH was just occupied by "Oil Experts" and you are not going to sell anyone that their alternative is better than this.

Drill baby drill? right.

No drill baby opinion from me at all, unless it was on the ground in Anwar where this would have been stopped within 5 days rather than 5 months. We have to honestly admit the oil industry is much better prepared in technical expertise, equipment, and financial reserves to deal with this disaster than the Fed govt. Fed's have nothing to useful offer... unless of course they choose to nuke the well. Then they can provide the nukes.
(Done w/ you)

Quoting Weather456:


Only 1 model develops the wave.

Yes, only the CMC has it at that strong of an intensity.

Quoting NASA101:
Weather456:

Don't see this going to Bahamas; Wave to too far south and - High pressures are forecast for the next 2 weeks on South East of the USA -hence the very warm temperatures for that region!
Way too early to say where is this wave going apart from hitting the Lower Antilles!?

could and should are two different words.

Did you look at the models? Take a look at the GFS, EURO, CMC and then come back and tell me what they show.

850 vort is stronger

Quoting NASA101:
Also, historically, CMC model is one of the worst ones out there!!

GFS is showing to be the worse by far this season..

BP didn't take this seriously from the start, imo. So accustomed to human casualties and safety breaches it appears as if they just chalked it up as one more mishap.

And if you are not a model fan, take a look at the wv imagery and let me know where the flow at 40W is showing.

I guess a NUKE will raise the GOM SST's

Best alert the SWAT teams to that un..

LOL

A Nuke on a Basalt sea floor...?


Yup..there's ya answer.


pfffftttt..

Quoting Weather456:


Only 1 model develops the wave.

I thought the NOGAPS (lol) did as well. The NAM has yet to endorse this AOI, and GFS shows spinning vorticity for a day or two but no development noted.

Quoting leo305:


GFS is showing to be the worse by far this season..

The upgrade has yet to come out, wait until then and then voice your opinion.

Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jun 12, 11:53 am CDT

A Few Clouds

91 °F
(33 °C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: W 13 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 102 °F (39 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.


Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...VERY HOT AND HUMID IN CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...

.VERY HOT AND HUMID SURGED INTO INDIANA ON SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHEST IN THE VINCENNES AREA WHERE THERE WAS
MORE SUNSHINE THAN ELSEWHERE.

INZ060-061-067>069-122300-
/O.NEW.KIND.HT.Y.0001.100612T1708Z-100612T2300Z/
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VINCENNES
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE: HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: EXPECT EXTREMELY SULTRY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I was reading the thread earlier about boycotting BP and wanted to make a couple of points. While it's certainly not fair to the individual station owners who bear no responsibility for the on-going disaster in the gulf it is completely understandable to want to hurt the company any way we can and boycotts are good for that. However knee-jerk reactions are seldom good. About the last thing we need right now is for BP to go out of business. If they implode, the American taxpayers will be on the hook for the clean-up bill. We need BP to survive at least in the near-term, if only to keep writing the checks. Patrap said earlier BP was negligent and criminal. Negligent most certainly, criminality will be determined in the investigation. I'm all for the investigation and if BP's actions are found to be criminal, then put 'em in jail. While they are investigating, lets make sure they take a look governments oversight as well. There may be some "crimanl negligence" there too.

Thank You:0)
Thats exactly it.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850 vort is stronger

Yes, looks nice.

12z Cyclone Formation Possibility has increased.

12z

The CMC thinks the system will be deep enough to maintain a strong enough ridge to aid in development even in destructive shear. I'll have to admit it's being reasonable.

Lots of folks used to sell Texaco branded gasoline. Now they sell Chevron.

Im still waiting for the EMCWF 12z from today, somebody mentioned a "RUC" model from earlier, but I am unfamiliar with that.

with convection beginning to go boom over the supposed center.. I suspect an invest.. soon..

thanks strom w just try to keep it away from hati plz

Quoting Weather456:
The CMC thinks the system will be deep enough to maintain a strong enough ridge to aid in development even in destructive shear.

I have to disagree with the CMC. At the moment I don't know which model is being most reasonable, but I'm going to go with the NOGAPS or GFS.

It better start moving more noth of WNW if it's to hit PR and north of that!
Do not trust any models with a wave yet to cross 40W...
Wait and see..my guess, it stays south of ~17N around 65W...but then I am just an informed armchair observer! :)

By the way, I woke up with a dream Friday morning that I was in a giant riverbed and huge monster pieces of equipment were coming toward me...I looked behind me and cars were under water. Climbed out of the riverbed up a steep slope and followed bird prints along a sandy path along a ridge of the crevasse. Then I find out about the AR flooding. It just occurred to me today to check my diary about the time I wrote that dream, and yep, it was Friday morning!
...A woman who survived said she heard flapping in her cabin (probably the water coming in but she thought it was an angel's wings) and when she saw the water coming in under the door, woke everybody up, and they managed to escape.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have to disagree with the CMC. At the moment I don't know which model is being most reasonable, but I'm going to go with the NOGAPS or GFS.

The CMC is reasonable, just not the likely solution to occur as the system would have to deepen and develop at fast rates.

Quoting Weather456:


The CMC is reasonable, just not the likely solution to occur as the system would have to deepen and develop at fast rates.

That's what I meant, reasonable was the wrong word, "likely" sounds better.

Quoting NASA101:
It better start moving more noth of WNW if it's to hit PR and north of that!
Do not trust any models with a wave yet to cross 40W...
Wait and see..my guess, it stays south of ~17N around 65W...but then I am just an informed armchair observer! :)

Did you take a look at the WV imagery?

GFS has wanted to model the best vorticity with these last 3-4 waves at the apex. When in reality, the spin has remained farther S down the wave axis. Closer to the ITCZ. I suppose that it will be correct sooner or later.