Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The TPC analyzed this wave as embedded in the ITCZ which will confuse alot of people. The ITCZ is between the NE and SE trades. If the SE trades cross the equator and turn southwest into low pressure then it is the monsoon trough. This feature is not embedded in the classic definition of the ITCZ, it is embedded in the monsoon trough. The NHC needs to stop diluting the meaning of ITCZ and make clear distinctions between it and the monsoon trough.

Quoting Levi32:
It should be reiterated that regardless of what happens to this system, we shouldn't even be seeing stuff like this out in the middle of the Atlantic in June. The mere fact that it's even there with this much organization and development potential should be a big cause for concern for what lies ahead.

Amen to this! This what we are seeing out there already this early in the season doesn't bode well at all. I pray that it is not a harbinger of things to come, but definitely I am concerned about this upcoming season for sure!

Quoting Levi32:
It should be reiterated that regardless of what happens to this system, we shouldn't even be seeing stuff like this out in the middle of the Atlantic in June. The mere fact that it's even there with this much organization and development potential should be a big cause for concern for what lies ahead.

plus 1

Quoting Weather456:
The TPC analyzed this wave as embedded in the ITCZ which will confuse alot of people. The ITCZ is between the NE and SE trades. If the SE trades cross the equator and turn southwest into low pressure then it is the monsoon trough. This feature is not embedded in the classic definition of the ITCZ, it is embedded in the monsoon trough. The NHC needs to stop diluting the meaning of ITCZ and make clear distinctions between it and the monsoon trough.

Hmm. I did not realize that a monsoonal trough existed at 40W in the Atlantic. I thought a monsoon was driven by extreme land/ocean temperature differential.

There is little difference between the monsoon trough and the ITCZ considering the monsoon trough itself is a part of the ITCZ. When a low pressure center/circulation develops within the ITCZ it can be considered a monsoon trough/circulation.

Top of the day everyone!

Quoting Drakoen:
If the wave can stay south of 15N then it has a chance. The models show the upper level high advecting westward and the upper level jet stream retracting further north.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010

.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE S OF 13N ALONG 37W. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF WAVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 13N ALONG 44W. N OF 12N
WITHIN 300 NM E OF WAVE NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 13N ALONG 48W. FROM 07N TO
14N BETWEEN 43W AND 35W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

Looks like they keep it south through 48hrs anyway.

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Top of the day everyone!

Keep doing those! Though doesn't 14 or 15 days make more sense than 12?

Hi, all. Apologize, if someone already has posted this nice cloud picture from the canaries (taken June, 6th; credit: ESA, June, 11th)

11 June 2010
This false-colour Envisat image highlights a unique cloud formation, created by ‘Von Karman vortices’, south of the Canary Island archipelago, some 95 km from the northwest coast of Africa (right) in the Atlantic Ocean.

Von Karman vortices, named after aeronautical engineer Theodore von Karman, form as air flows around an object in its path, causing it to separate and create eddies in its wake.

The clockwise and counterclockwise spirals in this image were created as wind blowing from the north over the Atlantic was disturbed by the archipelago.

Seven larger islands and a few smaller ones make up the Canaries; the larger islands are (left to right): El Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera, Tenerife, Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote.

Tenerife is the largest of the Canaries, while Gran Canaria is the most populated. UNESCO declared La Palma a Biosphere Reserve in 1983.

This image was acquired by Envisat’s Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on 6 June 2010 at a resolution of 300 m.

http://www.aeromorning.com/en/news.php?id_newss=40825&numnews=25

From 2:05 PM EDT discussion by NHC:

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
ALONG 26W FROM 4N TO 10N..AND A SURFACE LOW ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 7N32W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF
10N BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE
COAST OF SURINAME.

Ya got some action headed your way
Matt!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ya got some action headed your way
Matt!

just in time for work at 4 :p

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Given favorable conditions to at least Tuesday or Wednesday next week, I will give this system a moderate chance of attaining Invest status, a low-moderate chance of attaining TD status, and a very low-low chance of attaining TS strength.

Invest- 60%
Tropical Depression- 40%
Tropical Storm- 10%

I like those percentages! That is right along with my thinking as well. I stated a few posts back that the wave could become an invest within 48 hours time if it can hold its own during this time frame.

Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jun 12, 12:53 pm CDT

Partly Cloudy

92 °F
(33 °C)
Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1015.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 103 °F (39 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.

Quoting beell:


Hmm. I did not realize that a monsoonal trough existed at 40W in the Atlantic. I thought a monsoon was driven by extreme land/ocean temperature differential.

40W? The wave is at 33W.

Also monsoons are driven by land/ocean differences as you mentioned and the results are AEWs and monsoon troughs, among other features. The monsoon trough normally extends out into the ATL to 30W during the summer.

Quoting tornadodude:

Hey T-dude its a perfect setup for chasing... id go out if I wasn't already tied down at a family affair in an hour or so.

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


The CMC model develops that system starting at hr. 144

The GFS model develops that system starting at hr. 138

The NGP model develops that system starting at hr. 42

What does the models develop this system into? A strong disturbance, depression, TS?

Quoting AllStar17:

I like that graphic. How or where did you get that from?

Quoting kuppenskup:


I like that graphic. How or where did you get that from?

I made it

Quoting MrstormX:


Hey T-dude its a perfect setup for chasing... id go out if I wasn't already tied down at a family affair in an hour or so.

yeah same here, except I have to work.

Oh! just remembered! I actually got to see a brief funnel cloud yesterday almost due overhead at work, we had a severe cell move to our northwest, and we caught some small hail and as I was looking outside, the clouds were moving everywhere. I assumed it was just going to be some strong winds, but then it tightened up and rotated very rapidly for about 2 minutes

Quoting Weather456:


40W? The wave is at 33W.

The monsoon trough normally extends out into the ATL to 30W during the summer.

30W mid summer. So it is now embedded in a "non-monsoonal" trough? It will be at 40W soon enough.

Looks like the UKMET is now indicating a broad 1011mb low pressure area at 18 hours, and continues to show fluctuations in intensity going until eventually dissipating in 48 hours.

Quoting tornadodude:


yeah same here, except I have to work.

Oh! just remembered! I actually got to see a brief funnel cloud yesterday almost due overhead at work, we had a severe cell move to our northwest, and we caught some small hail and as I was looking outside, the clouds were moving everywhere. I assumed it was just going to be some strong winds, but then it tightened up and rotated very rapidly for about 2 minutes

I remember those isolated/scattered cells quite well from Yesterday most seemed weak but there were a few strong ones.

Here's the last frame I could get of the UKMET...12Z @ 66 hours...

Quoting beell:


30W mid summer. So it is now embedded in a "non-monsoonal" trough? It will be at 40W soon enough.

Well you placed in mid-summer since I did not.

The monsoon trough is a trough of low pressure between the SW monsoon and the NE Trades. Many writers such as the one that wrote "A forecaster's guide to tropical meteorology" expressed their views that the ITCZ has been hopelessly confused with the monsoon trough.

Now if this is the ITCZ show me the SE/NE wind regime? because ascat and GFS 12Z analysis is telling me the SE trades have turned SW south of the wave, so therefore it cannot satisfy the classic definition of the ITCZ.

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Tropical Storm.

Seriously?

Quoting MrstormX:


I remember those isolated/scattered cells quite well from Yesterday most seemed weak but there were a few strong ones.

yeah, there were a few in Indiana and Ohio that were briefly tornado warned. Where do you live? I know I asked before but I forgot

+18 with shear

Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, there were a few in Indiana and Ohio that were briefly tornado warned. Where do you live? I know I asked before but I forgot

Illinois, South of Chicago. Got a chance last week to see the beginning of a storm that spawned a tornado in Muncie. Pretty exciting... But not as exciting as it would have been to see a funnel form.

Its Football time!
USA vs England

cul

CRS

Just getting my first rain for June plus the first tropical wave . Link

1484. Weather456

nice gif 456, thanks.. is that some rotation I see attempting to get going??

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Yes...seriously.

Long term models also take it into the Bahamas and somewhere in South or Central Fla.

do i see roll on 33w...

Reading back i saw a lot of talk on the AOI To me the are is to far south and it will find it very hard to get a tight circulation so i believe it could still take 3 to 4 days to reach a tropical D if it comes to that