Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Our AOI is really impressing me on satellite imagery. Just looked at the shear map and there seems to be an anticyclone located NE of the strongest convection. They do not seem to be related though.

Every day it gets hotter and hotter down here. Temp today 95F with a heat index of 108F.

Quoting beell:


Would not surprise me to see a very strong ridge build in behind the long wave trough moving across the N ATL and keep this nice looking disturbance on a more westerly track.

The only place that shear would allow for development is where it is now or near the Bahamas. Anyone know when the TUTT should lift north of the Caribbean?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only place that shear would allow for development is where it is now or near the Bahamas. Anyone know when the TUTT should lift north of the Caribbean?

Not anytime soon. Laid out W to E, with a base in the western Caribbean and TUTT axis along 20N.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Levi, do you think that it'll end up surviving the blood-bath that awaits it in the carib., in a couple of days from now?

Well there, at the moment, is still uncertainty of where it will go. This area could just go north into the subtropical Atlantic, it could also go into the Caribbean or the Bahamas region. At the moment it seems like it will go into the Caribbean, if the TUTT is still in place in the Caribbean expect the system to lose most if not all convection and its circulation. In 72 hours we should have a better handle on where it'll go, but at the moment, too much uncertainty.

Quoting beell:


Not anytime soon. Laid out W to E, with a base in the western Caribbean and TUTT axis along 20N.

Ouch. Yeah, Caribbean should stay as a dead-spot for a while. The Bahamian region looks like the only place favorable for development at the moment.

lmao

Quoting btwntx08:
i think that sam is ____ again

Oh he is, but he's behaving properly.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As long as she behaves properly, who cares? If she misbehaves she'll be dealt with.


Good news. More than 6% of the way through the season, and no imminent development forecast.

Beware the ides of August.

6%, really? I don't think we'll pass 15% without our first named storm.

guys I think that shear should start to push out of the Caribbean between the next 72-120 hours and the GOM and Bahamas should become unfavorable for development

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You really can't give a time-frame but instead coordinates. Looking at the latest shear map, when the system passes 15N is when development will be prohibited.

and then as it moves WNW it will move into VERY favorable conditions..

if it becomes a TD before hand

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only place that shear would allow for development is where it is now or near the Bahamas. Anyone know when the TUTT should lift north of the Caribbean?

anywhere north of the carribean and west of the antilles is favorable for tropical development, in other words it needs to survive the area of shear to its North west, and then move north of the islands and towards the bahamas for development *which isn't unlikely*

Its 99 here at my location in pinellas county FL. You don't see actual highs like this very often... It usually just feel well over 100, but not usually actual temps this high. Man this just isn't typical June weather at all. PW is finally up near 2.00 inches again, but with this little convection today you would think it was drier. This is all thanks to a stubborn upper high inducing warm sinking air. Unfortunately it doesn't matter if we get equator like moisture content, its hard to get widespread thunderstorms when a big upper high is right over you.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Anyhow, I'll be back on later on today, when the ''elite'' bloggers decide to reemerge. Since there isn't much to do on here, right now. Have a good afternoon, all.

Drakoen, StormW, and Levi32 were on a couple of minutes ago. I consider then "elite". Lol.

This year in June has been VERY similar to last June. Started off wet and stormy, then got super hot and humid, but high pressure suppressed storms almost all the way through the rest of the month, till then end where we got drenched by wicked lightning producers. Then the rest of the wet season was hyper active.

Hopefully that will happen again this year. Thats the one positive side to upper level highs in Florida, they cause such massive heating of the water temps, that once high pressure collapses, the extra humidity and energy from the the hot steamy waters make the rest of the Florida wet season hyper active.

From the afternoon San Juan,PR discussion....

"RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON
ANALYZED ALONG 35W HAS A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF ABOUT 12N. 12Z GFS DOES
NOT LONGER INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ALL GUIDANCE XCPT
12Z CANADIAN INDICATE THIS WAVE APPROACHING PR/USVI NEXT FRI AS AN
OPEN WAVE."

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We've had 95 and 96 Jed, but no 99s yet this summer.

We had 0.21" of rain at the house yesterday. Our heaviest rainfall since May 4th.

Hah, we have had 3 straight days of upper 99's, and nearly a weak of mid 99's or better now!

Man thats even drier than us though. I'm just glad this year had a rather wet dry season. Our year to date is 27 inches so far, still slightly above normal considering we will likely get almost double that between this upcoming July and september.

So far we have had 3.75 inches this month, but that all fell from one huge storm we had off the gulf overnight when a lone shortwave passed overhead. Other then that this month has been very dry, grass is starting to look bad from such relentless baking heat.


We should get a few big storms even in this drier pattern though, because moisture will be plenty high to fuel any storms that pop, its just not much convection will develop in such strong subsidence aloft. But Ive seen us got some monster lightning producers in this pattern before, due to all the heat energy to fuel the few storms that due pop up.

You got lucky USA!

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
To me, these are all of the elite bloggers from this blog, that I know to ''date'': Drakoen, Levi, Weather456, Hurricane23, StormW, Nash28, Ike, KMan, and a handful of otehrs, but sadly, I've forgotten what most of their avatar screen names were, :(.

That just proves you are ***.

Quoting CycloneUK:
You got lucky USA!

LOL, it ended a draw.

hmm SiestaKeySam

Quoting CycloneUK:
You got lucky USA!

We didn't get lucky your team just has a terrible goaltender.

Quoting CycloneUK:
You got lucky USA!

yeah, I hope BP doesn't hire that guy to stop the oil leak...

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
It's good to see that the local NWS in PR is watching over the wave; although, they've got very little to worry about, in reference to it.

If the CMC is right, they could receive some heavy rains and gusty winds in the 6 to 9 day time-frame.

Quoting CypressJim08:


We didn't get lucky your team just has a terrible goaltender.

True, lol.

Quoting btwntx08:

someone posted this on 1588 if u havent seen it

Thnaks...I looked back to post 1600...didn't go back far enough.

Quoting CycloneUK:
You got lucky USA!

You got lucky that ball hit the post in the 2nd half, or else England would have lost

Soccer is a game of chances, England had more possession time, but in the end their chances were very poor. US had the best chance of the 2nd half. US wasn't lucky, they fought hard and got 1 point. I bet that is 1 point more than most people would have thought they would have gotten from England.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


yes. but how likely is that?

Probably about 1 in 20.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Its 99 here at my location in pinellas county FL. You don't see actual highs like this very often... It usually just feel well over 100, but not usually actual temps this high. Man this just isn't typical June weather at all. PW is finally up near 2.00 inches again, but with this little convection today you would think it was drier. This is all thanks to a stubborn upper high inducing warm sinking air. Unfortunately it doesn't matter if we get equator like moisture content, its hard to get widespread thunderstorms when a big upper high is right over you.

Where in Pinellas do you live ? My father lives in Dunedin.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


yes. but how likely is that?

Well the track is reasonable. Intensity, not so much.

.

Convection is increasing over the system and ... what time it is? 20.45z otherwise Diurnal Minimum where it is currently located. Impressive to say the least.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


You got lucky that ball hit the post in the 2nd half, or else England would have lost

Soccer is a game of chances, England had more possession time, but in the end their chances were very poor. US had the best chance of the 2nd half. US wasn't lucky, they fought hard and got 1 point. I bet that is 1 point more than most people would have thought they would have gotten from England.

And the view from the men who invented the game of FOOTBALL and decided not to change the name *cough*:

ITS ALL ROBERT GREEN'S FAULT. Heskey did ok, but isn't a striker anymore, Lampard can't take freekicks to save a life. But other than that, Rooney was impressive, Lennon did well. Compared to the USA who just got yellow cards every 5 minutes. I expected a draw, especially considering recent form and tbh your ranked 14th compared to our 8th. But with Beckham and Ferdinand and James all back and fit you wouldn't have stood a chance.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


You got lucky that ball hit the post in the 2nd half, or else England would have lost

Soccer is a game of chances, England had more possession time, but in the end their chances were very poor. US had the best chance of the 2nd half. US wasn't lucky, they fought hard and got 1 point. I bet that is 1 point more than most people would have thought they would have gotten from England.

If the US get out of the group stages they'll get crushed! England have it to go all the way.
c'mon England!