Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

SW you were right 92L is born.

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...ya can't pay attention to the models anyway on the initialization...they have to "run" with the system for at least a couple runs or so.

Exactly.

Im confused------ Whats new?? Doesnt the NHC lable potiential Invests, 92L, TD ,TS ect..? Why havent they broke the crayons out at 2pm? I mean they will label something near 0% with a yellow circle, but not 92L?

Quoting Weather456:
SW you were right 92L is born.

Yeah, I was kind of surprised it happened so quickly. I was thinking tomorrow. I applaud you StormW.

There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing

Quoting StormW:


Sure I am...I have some busts...I bust at least twice a season. My forecasts aren't perfect, nor am I always correct.

That's meteorology for ya! :D
But you are good. ^^

Quoting StormW:



LOL! Not really, that's good meteorology.

Absolutely. You can't be a good meteorologist if you don't review your mistakes and put them to use in the future.

Quoting StormW:


Sure I am...I have some busts...I bust at least twice a season. My forecasts aren't perfect, nor am I always correct.

And humble too. Another reason your well respected here StormW

Quoting Weather456:
There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing

I'm going to write that one down.

I finally finished the blog on tropical waves but I don't think I will post it 2mr as scheduled.

Quoting scott39:
Im confused------ Whats new?? Doesnt the NHC lable potiential Invests, 92L, TD ,TS ect..? Why havent they broke the crayons out at 2pm? I mean they will label something near 0% with a yellow circle, but not 92L?

yea that confuses me as well

.

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...ya can't pay attention to the models anyway on the initialization...they have to "run" with the system for at least a couple runs or so.

Thanks Storm.
Thats what I was thinking.
Still interesting to follow and see what we can predict it may do.
By we I mean you guys:0)

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Dropso, they also still continue to runt he XTRAP, remember that one? LMAO

do you know what the XTRAP even is?

My thinking tells me you dont

Quoting StormW:


I agree my friend! AMAZING...I'm with you, I don't believe I've ever seen an INVEST. designated that far east.

And in June.

i knew as well
we were heading for an invest
been marking and watchin since 9am
now we wait for 8 pm update from the NHC
and the navy to post invest 92l info as well here we go

Both featured bloggers has displayed extreme forecasting skills so early in the season. The senior chief expected it to be tagged in 24 hrs and the junior chief pegged this wave over Africa.

Props to you guys, Dr Masters made the perfect move!

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Convection right over the center.

XTRAP suggesting WNW motion, did it initialize incorrectly or is it really moving WNW?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Convection right over the center.

if the system consolidates and manages to touch TD or even TS strength before it reaches that area of shear, I believe the upper levels may force it further north than that..

Quoting Weather456:
There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing

Not saying 92L is going to develope before 40W, but dont they usually curve N if the develope that far E?

I see we have 92L!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
XTRAP suggesting WNW motion, did it initialize incorrectly or is it really moving WNW?

that's not a model XD

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
XTRAP suggesting WNW motion, did it initialize incorrectly or is it really moving WNW?

it has always been moving WNW

If it follows the BAMM model tracks then it very well may have a chance to be a significant system

Quoting Hurricanes101:


do you know what the XTRAP even is?

My thinking tells me you dont

I could tell him. lol.

XTRAP is short for extrapolation and it depicts a straight plot with no forces going upon that system.

Quoting scott39:
Not saying 92L is going to develope before 40W, but dont they usually curve N if the develope that far E?

there is a strong high blocking that from happening, and no, those that form really far east near africa or south of the cape verde's tend to turn, not those that form in the central Atlantic.

Quoting JLPR2:


that's not a model XD

I know, lol. But it has it moving WNW, last I checked it was moving W.

invest_al922010.invest is up on the NCEP FTP server.

Quoting StormW:


And there are others here that are just as good, in fact maybe a little better. I can't remember everyone, but they know who they are...however, the ones that stand out in my mind at the moment are 456, Drak, Levi as far as forecasters...they are exceptional, and I respect the hell out of them!

And that's why I keep coming here everyday, there are a lot of brilliant minds on this blog, yourself included. ^^

Quoting scott39:
Not saying 92L is going to develope before 40W, but dont they usually curve N if the develope that far E?

lol, it is at 6N, too far south for that.

Also the steering flow over the TRP is dominated by deep easterly flow with weaknesses near 40W based on WV loops. This supports a wnw motion.

Quoting Drakoen:
If it follows the BAMM model tracks then it very well may have a chance to be a significant system

I agree. I honestly don't see what's pulling the system towards the U.S virgin islands as other models are suggesting.

Quoting StormW:
Right now, until I see updated steering layers forecast maps later, I have to go with the middle of that guidance package.

You mean the 12Z steering maps?

Quoting Drakoen:
If it follows the BAMM model tracks then it very well may have a chance to be a significant system

How so?

The SHIPS forecast for shear to be low as the system heads into the Caribbean which is entirely possibly of the upper level anticyclone follows the system and the upper level jet moves northward

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 33 44 55 67 73 75 75 73 73
V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 33 44 55 67 73 75 75 73 73
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 38 44 49 52 54 54 54

SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 7 10 12 13 11 15 13 14 14 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -8 -6 -7 -7 -7 -4
SHEAR DIR 60 101 76 51 94 109 135 159 166 207 207 261 259
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 139 138 135 135 138 145 148 150 153 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 151 146 144 139 138 142 150 154 154 156 158
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10
700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 73 76 74 72 71 67 64 62 60 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 27 21 18 13 13 -3 -18 -38 -31 -18 4
200 MB DIV 79 96 88 109 145 146 155 110 65 44 33 13 7
LAND (KM) 1368 1345 1279 1242 1222 1240 1221 1033 870 737 653 632 460
LAT (DEG N) 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.2 11.5 11.8
LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.4 33.8 35.1 36.4 38.8 41.2 43.6 46.3 49.1 51.9 54.4 56.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 53 50 39 39 40 38 37 45 65 71 80 85 99

Drak
What there is a loophole?
Wiggleroom?
Go figure.
Keeps it interesting.

Quoting StormW:
Right now, until I see updated steering layers forecast maps later, I have to go with the middle of that guidance package.

You use the PSU steering graph or do you use the Cimss one?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know, lol. But it has it moving WNW, last I checked it was moving W.

oh, I get it now ^^
yeah, well... if it say WNW I guess its moving slightly WNW?

Thats disturbing!

Quoting Weather456:
There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing

Quoting Weather456:


lol, it is at 6N, too far south for that.

Also the steering flow over the TRP is dominated by deep easterly flow with weaknesses near 40W based on WV loops. This supports a wnw motion.

TRP?

Hi everyone,

I tell you it will not become a "hurricane" perhaps a TS but not a hurricane...

BECAUSE I predicted the first "hurricane" of the season will be announced on June 21st....
so way too early for a hurricane, unless it hangs around for about 9 days then becomes a 'cane... hummmmmmm
I may be more correct than I thought.....
:o)


something to watch.

Enjoy your Sat evening,

Gamma

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


How so?

The BAMM takes the system on a relatively southern track. Shear gets heavy north of 15N, the BAMM has it south of that throughout 92Ls lifetime.

Quoting JLPR2:


oh, I get it now ^^
yeah, well... if it say WNW I guess its moving slightly WNW?

I guess so.