Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Yes, I do, but I'm home for the summer. You should study met, Cane, you really love it.

We know you are JFV but as long as you behave I don't care. I do love meteorology, preferably tropical meteorology. But I still have a while to go before I begin to study met.

Quoting leo305:


"off topic"

Speaking of them, I was going to visit the NHC tomorrow, do they mind visitors? I mean just to see how it was like being there, and how they track and what not. It was too far a walk though, I was in FIU, they are located in the campus =P

I remember reading on their site that you have to call and make an appointment.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Special TWO is issued for important changes, designating an invest does not rise to that level.

Oh I see.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Leo, I wouldn't recommend it, especially now that the season is udnerway, why didn't you do it during the off-season? by the way, i live near Pantehr Hall over there, by the way, only minutes from them. thank god the NHC is inside of FIU and not inside of some otehr unievrsity.

Are you kidding me? Another screen name?????

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Leo, I wouldn't recommend it, especially now that the season is udnerway, why didn't you do it during the off-season? by the way, i live near Pantehr Hall over there, by the way, only minutes from them. thank god the NHC is inside of FIU and not inside of some otehr unievrsity.

oh I was just going to visit the place to see how it looks, not go into there studios and sit with them tracking (if that's what you were assuming, which i wouldn't dare to do), also I am going to start at FIU in the summer, it's just that they tend to hide there curriculum to there freshmen, which Is something I dislike.. if anyone goes there, please message me, and tell me how there meteorological program works, because there site has no info whatsoever.. if it does, it's really hard to find.

Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Are you kidding me? Another screen name?????

LMAO

92L looks good, models on WU say this could be a hurricane.

Quoting Weather456:

456 What is your take on this?

Quoting all4hurricanes:
92L looks good, models on WU say this could be a hurricane.

SHIPS suggests that.

Invest 92L is on Navy site.

Link

Official 18z coordinates are 6.3N, 31W, which places the main low center right in the bullseye of where we would like to see it right now for best organization. The circulation remains somewhat broad and elongated, however.

Quoting aquak9:
dangit, where's keeper?

7.5 mag, about 22 miles deep. off the west coast of India

having dinner
miss that one
its a biggy for sure
no wave thats good

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


LMAO

he multiplies himself like wabbits...or woaches.

Quoting Levi32:


A little more recent one:

Suggestive of equatorward and a developing poleward outflow around the low pressure center.

Quoting Chicklit:
he multiplies himself like wabbits...or woaches.

that diwector is wubbing me the wong way! lol

Great view, Terra!

Quoting Levi32:
Official 18z coordinates are 6.3N, 31W, which places the main low center right in the bullseye of where we would like to see it right now for best organization. The system remains somewhat broad and elongated, however.

Let's hope tonight we can get a good ASCAT pass to see if its broad or closed.

SPECIAL UPDATE 6/12/10
92L is declared!

Is it July yet? It sure looks it! Tropical Invest 92L has been declared out in the deep tropics and its believe it or not well organized with a 1012 mb low with very little to no forward speed which is going to help with the fact that there is a 80 knot shear barrier off the Virgin Islands. This was very unexpected to me, to not only have an invest in the deep tropics in early June but to have one that looks like a system in late July timeframe.


(curret NOAA GOES satellite image)


(shear image, showing that 80 knot shear barrier I was talking about)

92L will likely take a Westward path right into that wall of shear, but has a chance if it continues to move slow to become TD1 or even Tropical Storm Alex before opening back up into a wave. 92L is obviously a long ways off and poses no threat what so over other than to shipping.

CybrTed

this may be the best ch for a name storm yet this year

Finally some decent close-up loops.

Quoting masonsnana:
456 What is your take on this?

It displays good structure on satellite and microwave imagery so I'm not really surprised on the tagging. I expect the system to slide wnw based on the steering flow seen both at the CIMSS and PSU sites and the water vapor imagery.

The system lacks model support by much of the global models maybe becuz they take it too far north into the band of high shear. the statistical models now show a more southerly track, sparing the disturbance from the destructive shear and raising the intensity level.

Environmental conditions should remain favorable at least south of 15N over the next few days and at this point I am inclined to go with a more southerly track, since there isn't any really significant system that would just tug the system all the way to 20N before 60W as some of the global models were indicating.

At this point I am watching and waiting to see the state of 92L by 2mr.

Quoting Levi32:
Official 18z coordinates are 6.3N, 31W, which places the main low center right in the bullseye of where we would like to see it right now for best organization. The system remains somewhat broad and elongated, however.

darkness falls
it will tighten up and tonight should be a good night for a heavy first round convective cycle
tomorrow the normal flare up in early am and then the waning cycle in late afternoon
lets see how this plays out
should be interesting for sure

I don't believe the system will become an open wave if it reaches tropical storm strength, if it continues its WNW movement after the encounter with that band of shear, it will likely move into a favorable area of lesser shear values.

Healthy system in the CATL. Looks like convection is extending in coverage while getting stronger.

INV/92/L
MARK
6.3N/33.3W

Quoting Weather456:


It displays good structure on satellite and microwave imagery so I'm not really surprised on the tagging. I expect the system to slide wnw based on the steering flow seen both at the CIMSS and PSU sites and the water vapor imagery.

The system lacks model support by much of the global models maybe becuz they take it too far north into the band of high shear. the statistical models now show a more southerly track, sparing the disturbance from the destructive shear and raising the intensity level.

Environmental conditions should remain favorable at least south of 15N over the next few days and at this point I am inclined to go with a more southerly track, since there isn't any really significant system that would just tug the system all the way to 20N before 60W as some of the global models were indicating.

At this point I am watching and waiting to see the state of 92L by 2mr.

There is a trough in the northern atlantic that was dipping ever so gradually to the south and moving east, perhaps that was what could gravitate the system towards the NW as opposed to the WNW, but not by much. I believe that's what the models were counting on to move this thing a bit more northward.

Quoting leo305:
I don't believe the system will become an open wave if it reaches tropical storm strength, if it continues its WNW movement after the encounter with that band of shear, it will likely move into a favorable area of lesser shear values.

One thing going for 92L is its large size. If the system does surprise everybody and develop into a healthy tropical storm, its massive circulation would help it fight the wind shear, more so than a smaller system.

Quoting Chicklit:
he multiplies himself like wabbits...or woaches.

If it is JFV --- he is dying to ask the questions -- How will this affect the CONUS/ And Is it going to take aim on S. Fl

Quoting Levi32:


One thing going for 92L is its large size. If the system does surprise everybody and develop into a healthy tropical storm, its massive circulation would help it fight the wind shear, more so than a smaller system.

That is true.

Dang

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

darkness falls
it will tighten up and tonight should be a good night for a heavy first round convective cycle
tomorrow the normal flare up in early am and then the waning cycle in late afternoon
lets see how this plays out
should be interesting for sure

wouldn't be surprised to see that inverted v signature come first visual tomorrow, keep

Quoting Weather456:
Dang

A very apt word for what we are seeing.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


If it is JFV --- he is dying to ask the questions -- How will this affect the CONUS/ And Is it going to take aim on S. Fl

Asked already LOL

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


drak expecst to turn into a cane, so dissapation, IDK.

Drak never said it was going to turn into a hurricane, he only hinted on track.

92L is embedded in an area of very high TPW values.

Quoting Weather456:
Dang

tonight should be interesting

Quoting Levi32:
92L is embedded in an area of very high TPW values.

What's TPW?

i give an orange shade and a 40 to 50 percent chance for dev there is a slight chance for rapid dev as well over the next 24 hrs

Quoting SiestaKeySam:


drak expecst to turn into a cane, so dissapation, IDK.

No I do not. This system does have the potential to become a decent TS over the next couple of days especially if it takes a southerly track.

Dang!!

Quoting JLPR2:


tonight should be interesting

yeah, tonight is going to be the first night that I stay up after midnight. Let's see how that works out, lol.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's TPW?

Total Precipitable Water, the amount of liquid water that would result if all of the moisture in the atmospheric column was condensed.