Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I will have a blog post later this evening.

Cool

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
whsoe expectinga mention at 8pm> if so, how high of a percentage?

I think they'll mention it, but will only forecast a percentage of 10%, mainly because they want to see if climatology prevails.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

Significant polward motion

Quoting pottery:
Exactly where the "center" of 92L tracks, is academic really at this point.
From the coast of Venezuela right across the Islands will be affected by heavy rain and gusty winds when this system passes through.
Looks threatening enough right now.
It is a very large system....

its ok pot don't worry bro iam watchin you will know before anyone

The GFS significantly reduces precipitation and the size of the system by only 48 hours, presumably due to southerly wind shear on the western periphery of the upper ridge that is just to its east right now. 92L will have a better chance of longer survival if it strengthens right now to a point where it could try to drag an upper anticyclone along with it, or form its own and combat the TUTT. The GFS takes the system northwest right away into a weakness in the mid-level ridge that exists to the northwest of the system, taking it into high wind shear, but should it stay farther south and get into the eastern Caribbean, the upper ridge will be building over the area in a few days, providing better conditions.

HWRF at 2 days

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
The HWRF shoots it up like a firecracker, evidently out to lunch.

Obviously. Hopefully it will be back in time for the 00z run :)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok pot don't worry bro iam watchin you will know before anyone

Counting on you, Keeps!

Quoting Weather456:
HWRF at 2 days

The upgrade doesn't seem to have changed its tendency to ramp things up.

Quoting altesticstorm10:

20%...yellow circle at first.

no my friend its going to be a little higher than that

orange 40 to 50 percent chance
with a slight chance of rapid dev
within a 24 hr period

No GFDL run yet.. on the FSU page

Quoting Levi32:


The upgrade doesn't seem to have changed its tendency to ramp things up.

I agree.

Holy snap, this is a nice circulation. Still elongated a bit towards the west, which is obvious on satellite loops, but dang, again.

New WindSat pass:

Quoting Levi32:
Holy snap, this is a nice circulation. Still elongated a bit towards the west, which is obvious on satellite loops, but dang, again.

Dang!
:O

Quoting LemieT:

Cool

I will post it at around 10:00 PM EDT or maybe earlier. I need to see all the 18z models to have a good idea on what's going on.

Quoting Levi32:
The GFS significantly reduces precipitation and the size of the system by only 48 hours, presumably due to southerly wind shear on the western periphery of the upper ridge that is just to its east right now. 92L will have a better chance of longer survival if it strengthens right now to a point where it could try to drag an upper anticyclone along with it, or form its own and combat the TUTT. The GFS takes the system northwest right away into a weakness in the mid-level ridge that exists to the northwest of the system, taking it into high wind shear, but should it stay farther south and get into the eastern Caribbean, the upper ridge will be building over the area in a few days, providing better conditions.

The same weakness you are plotting is the very thing I was noting yesterday where you marked as peice of the tropical wave.

Never mind

Quoting Levi32:
Holy snap, this is a nice circulation. Still elongated a bit towards the west, which is obvious on satellite loops, but dang, again.

New WindSat pass:

I see 30+ knot winds. I think this could be upgraded to TD status either today or tomorrow morning.

Quoting Drakoen:


The same weakness you are plotting is the very thing I was noting yesterday where you marked as peice of the tropical wave.

Most of the tropical wave got absorbed into that mid-level feature. I said yesterday it was being "absorbed into a mid-latitude feature".

I would like to see the state of this wave on Sunday then I am likely to be more confident as to whether we will see Alex. If it looks the same or improves then I will be highly convinced.

June 12 2010

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see 30+ knot winds. I think this could be upgraded to TD status either today or tomorrow morning.

All rain-flagged, though. Hard to tell.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL is useless, look at coordinates:

HOUR: .0 LONG: -30.99 LAT: 5.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.76
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -31.97 LAT: 7.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.07
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -33.10 LAT: 7.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.05
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -34.46 LAT: 7.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -34.54 LAT: 8.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.42

Wow.. it thinks this things in the SOUTHERN hemisphere of the Atlantic.

Models may not handle it well at this time.

Quoting Levi32:
Holy snap, this is a nice circulation. Still elongated a bit towards the west, which is obvious on satellite loops, but dang, again.

New WindSat pass:

Such a large circulation. Looks oriented NW to SE. I would like to see an ASCAT pass to get a better idea though

Quoting Levi32:
Holy snap, this is a nice circulation. Still elongated a bit towards the west, which is obvious on satellite loops, but dang, again.

New WindSat pass:

and so close to the equator.

Quoting btwntx08:

goodbye haha #49

49? O_o?
I only have two lol!

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL is useless, look at coordinates:

HOUR: .0 LONG: -30.99 LAT: 5.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.76
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -31.97 LAT: 7.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.07
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -33.10 LAT: 7.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.05
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -34.46 LAT: 7.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -34.54 LAT: 8.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.42

yeah its corrupted best to ignore till next run

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wow.. it thinks this things in the SOUTHERN hemisphere of the Atlantic.

No its actually correct, just not used to seeing it that way.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wow.. it thinks this things in the SOUTHERN hemisphere of the Atlantic.

lol.. out to lunch with the HWRF

Quoting Levi32:


Most of the tropical wave got absorbed into that mid-level feature. I said yesterday it was being "absorbed into a mid-latitude feature".

Nope the wave is still there:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING WEST 8 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND
40W.

What you marked as "remnants of the wave" was actually the mid latitude feature.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No its actually correct, just not used to seeing it that way.

.

Quoting Drakoen:


Nope the wave is still there:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING WEST 8 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND
40W.

What you marked as "remnants of the wave" was actually the mid latitude feature.

I can agree to disagree. I see room for them to still call the piece that was left behind a tropical wave, but I am convinced the northern half of it was taken out by the mid-latitude feature. It's a minor detail that is debatable...and we now have something of more interest to track and scrutinize.

We should get our yellow circle within minutes

Quoting StormW:
Evening!

Evening SW

Quoting Levi32:


I can agree to disagree. I see room for them to still call the piece that was left behind a tropical wave, but I am convinced the northern half of it was taken out by the mid-latitude feature. It's a minor detail that is debatable...and we now have something of more interest to track and scrutinize.

They have been saying in the discussions that a bulge of deep layered moisture denoted the wave for the past few days now. Nothing mentioned about being absorbed.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

Out to lunch

The steering flow on WV is out of the SE and slows as it nears 40W....supports the wnw motion.

Quoting Drakoen:


They have been saying in the discussions that a bulge of deep layered moisture denoted the wave for the past few days now. Nothing mentioned about being absorbed.

And I analyze independently from the NHC. I don't really care whether they mention it or not.

Quoting StormW:
Evening!

Evening Storm.

Quoting Levi32:


And I analyze independently from the NHC. I don't really care whether they mention it or not.

Nice

Evening SW

Quoting Levi32:


And I analyze independently from the NHC. I don't really care whether they mention it or not.

That's going to be a problem later on lol especially if you want to be a meteorologist. I love comparing what I see to the professionals.

Quoting StormW:
Evening!

Good evening! :)