Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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2201. Levi32 11:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: ?? 00Z = 8 PM EDT 06Z = 2 AM EDT 12Z = 8 AM EDT 18Z = 2 PM EDT Correct. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2202. Drakoen 11:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: Oh, haha. lol not sure if you mentioned anything about it but if you did then good call as well... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2203. Bordonaro 11:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: i knew they would with that percentage now but if conv continues until the next two then the percentage will increase more imo Yellow/20% is a start :O)!!! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2204. WxLogic 11:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I was thinking the exact same thing lol. lol... Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

2205. Bordonaro 11:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 122338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2206. Drakoen 11:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WxLogic: lol... The CMC has been relatively calm this season... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2207. KoritheMan 11:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32: It's definitely concerning me that we have a system looking like this down there, and so close to the equator to boot. It's not necessarily the wave itself that bothers me, it's the fact that it could develop, which is a harbinger of an active season. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2208. KoritheMan 11:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: lol not sure if you mentioned anything about it but if you did then good call as well... Well I did say that they [NHC] would mention it at 8PM, but I only said they would predict a 10% chance, not 20%. I was close I guess. lol Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2209. Cavin Rawlins 11:50 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: It's not necessarily the wave itself* that bothers me, it's the fact that it could develop, which is a harbinger of an active season.* True Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2210. Drakoen 11:50 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: It's not necessarily the wave itself* that bothers me, it's the fact that it could develop, which is a harbinger of an active season.* Agree Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2211. KoritheMan 11:50 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Correct. Oh, wow? I got that terribly wrong then. Sorry for any confusion guys. lol Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2213. Levi32 11:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
6 hours ago: Now: Big changes are occurring here with a solid burst of convection that is no longer popcorn-like, but the solid, widespread cloud shield that can form CDOs. If this level of convection remains sustained through tomorrow morning, which it has a good chance of doing, then this system will definitely mean business. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2214. Levi32 11:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: It's not necessarily the wave itself* that bothers me, it's the fact that it could develop, which is a harbinger of an active season.* That is what I meant. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2215. CaribBoy 11:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
92L keeps consolidating... Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

2216. CybrTeddy 11:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Oh you may be right. For some reason I don't remember it going above 10%, but it's kinda fuzzy. 90L got orange for a while. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20656

2217. Cavin Rawlins 11:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 6 hours ago: Now: Big changes are occurring here with a solid burst of convection that is no longer popcorn-like, but the solid, widespread cloud shield that can form CDOs. If this level of convection remains sustained through tomorrow morning, which it has a good chance of doing, then this system will definitely mean business. that convective signature west of the axis is common to developing waves. All the big ones had that signature, most recently Bill. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2218. CaribBoy 11:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Yeah look like a CDO may be trying to form.. percistency is the key. Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

2219. stormwatcherCI 11:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: where's that troll that said it was moving due west, what a joke, hide like what you are , anyways. Actually, Wunderground Tropical Forecast (?) says movement West too. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063

2220. NOVArules 11:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

2221. CaribBoy 11:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Be back later :) Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

2225. scott39 11:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
20%----- LOL, 92L "looks" like it can swallow the GOM------ I know im being Dramatic. But only 20%? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

2226. Levi32 11:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
18z GFDL is following the GFS track, as expected from that model, and strengthens 92L initially but then weakens it due to its northerly motion taking it into higher shear. Interestingly enough it appears to want to start strengthening again at the end of the run, northeast of the islands. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2227. MiamiHurricanes09 11:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 6 hours ago: Now: Big changes are occurring here with a solid burst of convection that is no longer popcorn-like, but the solid, widespread cloud shield that can form CDOs. If this level of convection remains sustained through tomorrow morning, which it has a good chance of doing, then this system will definitely mean business. Now comes the real question. Do you think we will see Alex out of 92L? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

2228. Cavin Rawlins 11:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: Quoting Weather456: I think 90L was orange at one point but 90L was none Tropic We were referring to percentages of all the areas mentioned by the NHC this year, even if it was "non-tropical". Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2229. BiloxiIsle 11:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Sleetman...you are entitled to your opinion, absolutely, I don't fault you there. And personally, I hope you are correct about this season, although I don't think you are. My question to you is this....when 92L develops (and I believe it could) will you come on and admit you were wrong. And when this season is above normal will you say you were mistaken. Or will you just not show up until next year, and hope we don't remember your "opinions"? Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

2230. wunderkidcayman 11:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
THE BREAKING OF THE NOT SO BREAKING NEWS WE HAVE A CODE YELLOW ON 92L WITH A 20% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TD WITHIN THE NEXT 28 HOURS OUTLOOK AS FOLLOWS 000 ABNT20 KNHC 122338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

2231. taco2me61 11:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
With all due respect I hate it when they are at that latitude and form into a storm. They always seem to come into the Gulf and we just don't need that right now... Taco :o) Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794

2232. Levi32 11:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Weather456: that convective signature west of the axis is common to developing waves. All the big ones had that signature, most recently Bill. I was thinking of Bill when I saw that image. Very classic satellite signature. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2234. KoritheMan 11:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Actually, Wunderground Tropical Forecast (?) says movement West too. It looks WNW to me, albeit slowly. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2235. scott39 11:59 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting taco2me61: With all due respect I hate it when they are at that latitude and form into a storm. They always seem to come into the Gulf and we just don't need that right now... Taco :o) Shhhhhh Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

2236. Levi32 11:59 PM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Now comes the real question. Do you think we will see Alex out of 92L? I'm also in the camp of waiting until morning. One can't jump the gun on these things when climatology is lurking to slam the door shut. I do think this system has the best chance at development of all the areas we have watched so far this year. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

2237. MiamiHurricanes09 12:00 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 18z GFDL is following the GFS track, as expected from that model, and strengthens 92L initially but then weakens it due to its northerly motion taking it into higher shear. Interestingly enough it appears to want to start strengthening again at the end of the run, northeast of the islands. I'm going to stick with the BAMM track for the time being. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

2239. stormwatcherCI 12:00 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: It looks WNW to me, albeit slowly. I can't tell. I was replying to ___ saying the "troll" said it was moving west like he was dead wrong and although I can't tell, WU says West. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063

2240. Cavin Rawlins 12:01 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I was thinking of Bill when I saw that image. Very classic satellite signature. Let's count backwards...Bill, Bertha, Dean, Helene, Irene, Ivan, Frances, Danny, Isabel, Danielle, Georges all had these classic signatures...but the earliest of any of these is Bertha 2008. I don't what the heck is going on. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2241. MiamiHurricanes09 12:02 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm also in the camp of waiting until morning. One can't jump the gun on these things when climatology is lurking to slam the door shut. I do think this system has the best chance at development of all the areas we have watched so far this year. I think we will see TD1 tomorrow morning. We just need that low to tighten up a little more, too broad for the NHC's liking. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

2244. Drakoen 12:02 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2246. JLPR2 12:03 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I think we will see TD1 tomorrow morning. We just need that low to tighten up a little more, too broad for the NHC's liking. Yeah, TD 1 seems likely, but Alex... hmm... will wait till tomorrow morning to say yes or no :) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

2249. MiamiHurricanes09 12:05 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: I think this is our best shot at alex so far this year. Agreed. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

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