Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting SouthALWX:
Looks good to me .. I say this is Alex in a little while. If it can pump up the anticyclone over it it might be able to slip under the roughest shear to its north. looking at WV imagery I think it might stand a chance

agree too

Quoting Drakoen:


That is correct

Sorry, meant to include a question mark.

On my phone.

Despite 92L being south of 10 degrees north, I see possible development with this system for three key reasons.

1) water temperatures around 92L are 83 degrees Fahrenheit (or above 28 degrees Celsius), so it has plenty of warm water to eventually organize and develop.

Buoy 13551 just north of 92L's position

2) If the shear maps from CIMSS are correctly, there is only about 10 kts of shear currently under 92L.

3) Third, an anti-cyclone very close-by is providing excellent outflow.

Updated CIMSS East Atlantic Shear

A more southerly tracks favors intensification

Quoting StormW:
Anybody know why 92L isn't showing on the Navy site?

Not sure, I think it is in the directory though.

Quoting StormW:
Anybody know why 92L isn't showing on the Navy site?

Not sure storm, Just maybe they have not gotten the memo yet....

Taco :o)

There was nothing in the eastern ATL that looked that good in mid-June 2009. Impressive invest.

Quoting StormW:
Anybody know why 92L isn't showing on the Navy site?

Check their back up site...

Quoting StormW:
Anybody know why 92L isn't showing on the Navy site?

I have been checking and I was wondering the same thing. Weird.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

There is no way they will name it soon when only showing 20% chance right now. Plus they are going to give it a day or two to see if it stays south and survives shear. then maybe they will start thinking about flying into it if it shows potential. Then maybe just maybe it will be named but I doubt it at the moment.

It was at 0% this morning, things happen

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


And you may be the only one...

I am not saying it wont become Alex but not in the next 12-24 hours like some say. Lets think like the NHC thinks. They rarely jump from yellow to a named TS. People saying t will be Alex by tomorrow is almost crazy. That means it passes TD status also.

Quoting masonsnana:
It was at 0% this morning, things happen

Great so in 12 hours they went form 0% to 20%. On that pace it will be another 2.5 days before it is a TD haha.

I'd say a TD is probable by 5pm tomorrow if 92L can keep it up. Most impressive invest since 2008.

Quoting StormW:
Anybody know why 92L isn't showing on the Navy site?

Link


Its here StormW

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You think it has a chance to reach moderate tropical storm status?

If it does a track similar to what the BAMM is depicting it could reach hurricane strength. Do I think this will happen? Time will tell.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Great so in 12 hours they went form 0% to 20%. On that pace it will be another 2.5 days before it is a TD haha.

You missed the point, but that ok

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd say a TD is probable by 5pm tomorrow if 92L can keep it up. Most impressive invest since 2008.

TD status by morning, that's my call.

Usually this time of year we have great issues with dry air but that does not appear to be the case this year.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd say a TD is probable by 5pm tomorrow if 92L can keep it up. Most impressive invest since 2008.

lol....Fred and Bill were impressive invests....

Quoting MrstormX:


Not sure, I think it is in the directory though.

I was thinking the same thing. If you click at the top where it says "All" it turns up. But it was lacking images and information.

At the current rate of organization, assuming it continues, 2.5 days is too long...24 hrs seems likely under this assumption.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TD status by morning, that's my call.

Unlikely.

It may go up to 50-60% by 8am or 2pm.

Quoting masonsnana:
You missed the point, but that ok

I didnt miss the point but everyone is so fast to increase this storm. NHC will not make a call until they get more data and more information. Shoot the models havent even intialized on this yet. I expect orange in the morning and maybe maybe red by afternoon. At that point we will have a better idea of whether or not this thing really has a shot or not. I am just being realistic.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Unlikely.

It may go up to 50-60% by 8am or 2pm.

We'll see. Lol, but your prediction sounds better.

Ahh.! Invest 92L. My day has been made!

Quoting Weather456:
At the current rate of organization, assuming it continues, 2.5 days is too long...24 hrs seems likely under this assumption.

I agree.

Quoting Weather456:
At the current rate of organization, assuming it continues, 2.5 days is too long...24 hrs seems likely under this assumption.

Haha yea I agree...I was just kidding. he said things happen sicne it went form 0 to 20 today in 12 hours. I think we may see TD out of this but I really need more data before I go out on a limb to say this will be Alex in the next 2-3 days.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
WOW, ogoring the trolls really does work, go figure, who knew, ^_^. Me likem lol.

Can you see your own posts?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

wow, looks very healthy there :O

The season begins with a massive CV invest. Holy cow we are in for one h@@ of a season.

My update 2mr should have in some confidence on 92L. At this point, I'm still in aww! June 12 2010 well well...

This could be a midnight TD if it continues to deepen, the NHC tends to name storms/or TDs at midnight. Has anyone else noticed that?

I am even more surprised that the TWO was more like a TWO for July or August...no indication that it was June.