Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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2351. Cavin Rawlins 12:38 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I am even more surprised that the TWO was more like a TWO for July or August...no indication that it was June. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2352. Levi32 12:39 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: My update 2mr should have in some confidence on 92L. At this point, I'm still in aww! June 12 2010 well well... I know, pretty crazy isn't it. It's hard to commit to a forecast for this to develop when it's so early in the year! Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

2354. MrstormX 12:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: I am even more surprised that the TWO was more like a TWO for July or August...no indication that it was June. Remember when I told you earlier "there is a first time for everything", well im pretty sure that just happened. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2355. Stormchaser2007 12:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Pretty darn massive: Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2356. leo305 12:41 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
some shear from the east is pushing the convection off the center.. either that or the thing is speeding up and rapidly developing.. Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2357. jaevortex 12:41 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
holy cow we're in it this season

2360. Cavin Rawlins 12:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: Remember when I told you earlier "there is a first time for everything", well im pretty sure that just happened. lol....I did mention your name earlier....I said an earlier blogger said there was a first time for everything. Can't recall an invest so far east, so early. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2361. masonsnana 12:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Pretty darn massive: Looks like July! Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 513

2362. ackee 12:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
if 92L becomes a TD or TS that far south in june cant imagine what will happen for the rest of the seasons Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

2363. MrstormX 12:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
At the rate we are going this thing will have an eye by midnight, lol. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2364. nrtiwlnvragn 12:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Sorta has a Stewie shape Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

2365. MrstormX 12:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: lol....I did mention your name earlier....I said an earlier blogger said there was a first time for everything. Can't recall an invest so far east, so early. Its crazy 456, I was only joking earlier but now im kind of in awe. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2366. gator23 12:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: hey levi, where would the steering pattern take this system, let's say, in about 4 to 8 days from now? thanks, sir. right to South Florida. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2367. Levi32 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Notice how the blog has gone from frustration over a season starting out like a dud, to this...lol. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

2368. Drakoen 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2369. wdtcnewsonlinewx 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Well lets all hope that this doesn't end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82

2370. Cavin Rawlins 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting leo305: some shear from the east is pushing the convection off the center.. either that or the thing is speeding up and rapidly developing.. easterly shear....which is an August-September type condition that stimulates convection associated with developing waves...its that what gives them their convective signature...related to the AEJ. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2371. IKE 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: At the rate we are going this thing will have an eye by midnight, lol. Pinhole? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2372. gator23 12:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting sleetman1: lol this will not be alex IMO.. they are going to have some pretty disappointed people in here come monday... like Hurricanelover Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2374. jaevortex 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Sorta has a Stewie shape lmao football head

2375. stormpetrol 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
92L is low in lattitude like Ivan 04, kinda scary this early in the season! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

2376. MiamiHurricanes09 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Sorta has a Stewie shape LMAO. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2377. WPBHurricane05 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting IKE: Pinhole? Better call Taz. Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7921

2378. gator23 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx: Well lets all hope that this doesn't end up in the Gulf of Mexico. more people live out of the gulf than in around it. Lets hope it doesn't end up ANYWHERE Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2379. MrstormX 12:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting IKE: Pinhole? A Wilma-like pinhole, lmao Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2381. IKE 12:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting WPBHurricane05: Better call Taz. LOL. Mostly believers vs. a few non-believers tonight. Got my Coke and popcorn. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2382. shakaka 12:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting ackee: if 92L becomes a TD or TS that far south in june cant imagine what will happen for the rest of the seasons Congrats! You are the 300th poster to say that in this blog today! Sorry, I don't have a prize for you. I think I will log off before my head explodes. Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 35

2385. Drakoen 12:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting gulfcoastdweller: LMFAO.....you're so bad BTW look forward to your posts this season Thank You! :) Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2386. MrstormX 12:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Should I be excited, or scared... hmmm Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2387. gator23 12:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: dont get ahead of urself lol I was throwing SiestaJFV a lifeline... Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2388. xcool 12:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
i give 50% .get name.hey all. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2390. gator23 12:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: Should I be excited, or scared... hmmm I will be the first to say it. "OMG you guys this could be like Hugo" or "OMG you guys this could be like Andrew" or "OMG you guys this could be like Katrina" or "OMG you guys this could be like Ike" did I cover all my bases? Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2391. gator23 12:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting xcool: i give 50% .get name.hey all. hey buddy! Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2392. BiloxiIsle 12:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Not having a good feeling about this season. Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

2393. MiamiHurricanes09 12:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Blog Update! Hurricane Season Blog #21: Daily Update - 92L - Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2394. CybrTeddy 12:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Are you sure this is June 12th? Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

2396. MiamiHurricanes09 12:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Notice how the blog has gone from frustration over a season starting out like a dud, to this...lol. Lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2399. PanhandleChuck 12:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting IKE: LOL. Mostly believers vs. a few non-believers tonight. Got my Coke and popcorn. Dude, I think we are gonna need the Crown and plenty of cold beer to wash it down with this year. If the season is anywhere near what they predict, we're in for a long hall. Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

2400. Cavin Rawlins 12:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Crazy Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2401. gator23 12:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: dont get ahead of urself lol ive been on here too long to know that you cant tell where a storm is goin to it gets there. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

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