Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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2551. Stormchaser2007 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: This is crazy for June! Quoting IKE: *reaches for dental floss to clear popcorn between teeth* Realizes we still have the rest of June until November and grabs another beer Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2552. mcluvincane 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
The tropical Atlantic remains quite and no tropical development is expected over the next seven days. Oh how mother nature does as she likes and defies all so called experts. Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

2553. Tazmanian 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: AL 92 201006122345 590N 3100W TAFB 1010 ///// i thinkis now 1006mb down from 1012mbs Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2554. Xyrus 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Seems like A is a real possibility.

2555. Drakoen 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I need a drink... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2556. Snowlover123 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Here we go with the polls again... When do YOU think 92L will become a TD? A)-Tomorrow Morning B)-Tomorrow Afternoon C)-Tomorrow Night D)-Sometime Monday How about between A and B? :) Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

2557. xcool 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
TD1 COME SOON. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2558. MiamiHurricanes09 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: This is crazy for June! It's amazing. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2559. HaboobsRsweet 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting IKE: Bag of microwave popcorn. MMMM popcorn...I might have to get some. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2560. nrtiwlnvragn 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 1010 mb, down from 1012. Sorry, I should have specified... that is the Dvorak number 1.0 Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9089

2561. JRRP 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Here we go with the polls again... When do YOU think 92L will become a TD? A)-Tomorrow Morning B)-Tomorrow Afternoon C)-Tomorrow Night D)-Sometime Monday C Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

2562. xcool 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Baltimorebirds HEY Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2563. IKE 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Realizes we still have the rest of June until November and grabs another beer :) Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

2564. Stormchaser2007 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Looks like C wins. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2565. Cavin Rawlins 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: This is crazy for June! Chief what's going on with the tropics....why we looking at a wave in June southwest of the CV islands...lol. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2566. MiamiHurricanes09 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Realizes we still have the rest of June until November and grabs another beer ROFLMAO!! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2567. HaboobsRsweet 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Yea I need a drink too but I think all I have is wine...whatever works at the moment I guess. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2569. leo305 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
there seems to be a weak spin in the infared to the South and east of the big area of convection, not sure if that is the center, but w.e it is, it's moving WNW almost NW, and at around 10mph based on sat.. Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2570. Snowlover123 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Ha... yesterday I made a flase assumption that Hurricane Season was "over." (I was kidding around) but coincidentally we get our third invest of the season a day after a said that! Ironic, isn't it? Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

2571. NOVArules 1:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting IKE: Bag of microwave popcorn. Hmmm I would have preferred $1 million dollars, but popcorn is fine. Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

2572. Drakoen 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Here we go with the polls again... When do YOU think 92L will become a TD? A)-Tomorrow Morning B)-Tomorrow Afternoon C)-Tomorrow Night D)-Sometime Monday B Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2573. Stormchaser2007 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I need a drink... LOL! Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2574. Levi32 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
New 00z coordinates: 6.4N, 31.9W. 18z coordinates were 6.3N 31.0W. This indicates a WNW motion with little northerly component at this point. Center position based on coordinates: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25605

2575. MiamiHurricanes09 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Chief what's going on with the tropics....why we looking at a wave in June southwest of the CV islands...lol. LOL! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2577. JRRP 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

2578. MiamiHurricanes09 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: New 00z coordinates: 6.4N, 31.9W. 18z coordinates were 6.3N 31.0W. This indicates a WNW motion with little northerly component at this point. Center position based on coordinates: As expected. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2579. MiamiHurricanes09 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: "Cause we predicted a busy season! LOL! LOL! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2580. Tazmanian 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
2550. IKE 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010 Quoting sleetman1: E never LOL! ah ah ah ah ah lol lol lol too funny Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2581. wunderkidcayman 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAA All the way Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

2582. Snowlover123 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: New 00z coordinates: 6.4N, 31.9W. 18z coordinates were 6.3N 31.0W. This indicates a WNW motion with little northerly component at this point. Center position based on coordinates: To think, 6 hours ago, the NHC had "Tropical Cyclone Activity not expected in the next 48 hours." LMAO! -Snowlover123 Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2594

2583. HaboobsRsweet 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Chief what's going on with the tropics....why we looking at a wave in June southwest of the CV islands...lol. It is events like these that makes me wonder how many systems we may have missed in the past since technology has gotten so much better over the years. Maybe a system like this has happened before but just spun off out to see or it an area where it wasnt recorded or where people did not live yet. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2585. MiamiHurricanes09 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
AL, 92, 2010061300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 319W, 25, 1012, DB, Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2586. reedzone 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: It looks like a TD now, but very difficult to gauge the winds under those clouds and very difficult to go on 12 hrs of persistence. However, shortwave infrared imagery is telling me what ever is there continues to become better define. No QS this year :( This is a perfect example on how bad the Cape Verde storms could be. It's only June for petes sake and we have a robust wave that became an Investigation Area. Come August, people need to be cautious,especially you Weather456. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

2587. taco2me61 1:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: *Pulls out cot, sets up coffee pot next to PC* LMAO at you Storm :o) Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2789

2588. CybrTeddy 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Sleetman says this Hurricane season will be a bust.. .. Now I'm convinced this hurricane season will be insane. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

2590. Stormchaser2007 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: New 00z coordinates: 6.4N, 31.9W. 18z coordinates were 6.3N 31.0W. This indicates a WNW motion with little northerly component at this point. Center position based on coordinates: Thats an amazing satellite presentation. This thing came out of nowhere. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2591. xcool 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2592. Cavin Rawlins 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I'm with drak....I need a drink.... Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2593. sporteguy03 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Would this be the furthest East ever for the "A" system if it developed? Not for the month of June but just the A name? Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4840

2594. xcool 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
btwntx08 HEY Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2595. Tazmanian 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
2550. IKE 1:22 AM GMT on June 13, 2010 Quoting sleetman1: E never LOL! lol lol lol lol Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2596. Skyepony (Mod) 1:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
it's nearly closed..elongated & sloppy ~ Windsat caught it.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29957

2598. MiamiHurricanes09 1:27 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: I'm with drak....I need a drink.... I applaud you for calling this system! Toast to 456! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2599. Stormchaser2007 1:27 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity 201006130000 6.4 -31.9 25 201006121800 6.3 -31 20 Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2600. NOVArules 1:27 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Trolls make life interesting. Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

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