Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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1712. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


... or eat seafood?


I found this from the NW FL Daily News...16,000 feet from Pensacola Pass....

"UPDATED: Additional oil plume 3 miles south of Pensacola Pass"

From here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


Well...maybe it did nail it...lol.
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1709. leo305
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SHIPS takes 92L to a 86 MPH hurricane.



interesting.. so then they expect a portion of the anticyclone to protect it?
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Hot damn...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1707. xcool


olny models imo/i'm going wait and see
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
SHIPS takes 92L to category 1 strength while the IVCN takes it to a strong tropical storm.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
Orange Beach,AL....want to take a dip?





I was planning on taking a vacation there this year. Ugh...
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1703. xcool
IKE .true .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1702. IKE
Quoting IKE:


I'll wait til the models run on it.


Well...maybe it did nail it...lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Orange Beach,AL....want to take a dip?





... or eat seafood?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1700. xcool
100% GO TO CMC MODELS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1699. IKE
Quoting xcool:
YEP SO CMC NAILS WOW./


I'll wait til the models run on it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
SHIPS takes 92L to a 86 MPH hurricane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1697. xcool
AND JUNE O7 TO 17 I SAID STORMS OR 92L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1696. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
92L is born!!

AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 20, 1012, DB


WOOHOO!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
They removes the "L" from the surface analysis because it was labeled 92L.

AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 20, 1012, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1694. xcool
YEP SO CMC NAILS WOW./
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting leo305:


so we should have model runs! YAY
WOO HOO something to watch!!
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Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Good, can it keep it up until Nov. 30th?


No way, unfortunately. All of this heat has to go eventually dissipate somehow.
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1691. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:
92L is born!!

AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 20, 1012, DB


so we should have model runs! YAY
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1690. IKE
Orange Beach,AL....want to take a dip?



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting mgreen91:
Do we have 92L yet?
Nope. It should be labeled within 18 hours, if convection can sustain itself.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
92L is born!!

AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 20, 1012, DB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mgreen91:
Do we have 92L yet?


Yes. Look on the WU tropical page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do we have 92L yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If it looks like the Northern polar ice cap is going to melt completely this year... do you think we should wait until it is almost gone, then tow the whole northern ice cap down to the Gulf?

It would upset some environmentalists, but it might just cool the gulf water for the summer. Depending on how small the polar ice cap gets and how much melts during transport... it should be able to fit through the gap between the Florida Keys and Cuba.
:>) :>) :>) :>0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They removed the 1012 MB low from our ITCZ disturbance in the 18z surface analysis.

18z

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
New surface map (18Z)





and our AOI has lost it's low on the map LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting IKE:
Wave at 35W???????


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 76W WILL MOVE W
TO ALONG 80W SUN AND 85W MON AND MOVE THROUGH THE W GULF OF
HONDURAS MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER FAR E ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

It seems to be the ITCZ disturbance.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As long as she behaves properly, who cares? If she misbehaves she'll be dealt with.


Good news. More than 6% of the way through the season, and no imminent development forecast.

Beware the ides of August.


That's not necessarily good news. Think of it this way... that's about 6% greater TCHP for intensifying other storms later this season.

While the shear remains high and tropical systems are suppressed, the Gulf, Caribbean and tropical Atlantic continue to roast.

I'd much rather see a few small tropical storms NOW to rob some of that heat potential from the tropical waters. 6% of the way into the Hurricane Season, we have had little to prevent SST's from getting even warmer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Wave at 35W???????


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 76W WILL MOVE W
TO ALONG 80W SUN AND 85W MON AND MOVE THROUGH THE W GULF OF
HONDURAS MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER FAR E ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.



I would think that is the wave at 35W they are describing, timing seems right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1677. xcool
WAVE 35W
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1676. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1675. IKE
Wave at 35W???????


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 76W WILL MOVE W
TO ALONG 80W SUN AND 85W MON AND MOVE THROUGH THE W GULF OF
HONDURAS MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER FAR E ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Models are forecasting stronger westerlies than they were this time yesterday. It will be interesting to see if that continues.
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hi!!!!
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Quoting K8eCane:
I know I keep saying it...but i just have a feeling this season will leave some head scratching going on in the tropics...and hello Ike, StormW ,StormJunkie if yall are here
Good head scratching as in:

"Wow! Everyone said this season was going to be bad and it was a joke."

Or bad head scratching:

"Damn! The NHC said 23 named storms and we got even more that that. No one expected this."

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Not being rude either guys, but its not goaltender its goalkeeper, its not soccer its football, and also its not possession time its possession of the ball.

Also Football not a game of chance its a game of talent and skill. And Emile Heskey slipping over every 5 minutes.


Goaltender is a Hockey term which more Americans watch more. The Canadian term is Netminder for those Canadians here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1667. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.9N/35.5W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1666. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
I know I keep saying it...but i just have a feeling this season will leave some head scratching going on in the tropics...and hello Ike, StormW ,StormJunkie if yall are here


Hello.

Day 6 from the HPC...



Day 7...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting PcolaDan:


Would have - could have - should have - if if if. Regardless, final score US 1 - England 1.


EXACTLY!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1664. K8eCane
I know I keep saying it...but i just have a feeling this season will leave some head scratching going on in the tropics...and hello Ike, StormW ,StormJunkie if yall are here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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