Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010 +2
Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters
Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
Categories: Flood
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251. AstroHurricane001 9:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I've seen loads of comments about shear and it killing the season this year. Its June guys, not August, shear's suppose to be high. And even though its high right now its still below average.

In the Gulf


In the Caribbean


Average off the East Coast


In the Atlantic




Extrapolating form those graphs, it looks as if shear in most areas of the Atlantic basin would fall to zero by early July.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
252. NRAamy 9:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Have you seen his picture????
Answers a lot of questions.


they all can't be as handsome as you!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
253. NASA101 9:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
No one seems to be picking up on the wave with clear cyclonic turning just north 5N of between 33-35W..!?

Anyone see that?

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
254. xcool 9:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Baltimorebirds.i do
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
255. AstroHurricane001 9:19 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Over the past several days ridging over the eastern seaboard has really increased SSTs across the GOM. The Caribbean also very warm too.

June 6, 2010


June 11, 2010


It's amazing how rapidly SSTs can warm. The GOM has warmed most significantly due to the reasons above.


I have to say, the Caribbean looks exactly the way it should on the 11th of September, not the 11th of June.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
been reading back i see hes back
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
257. NCHurricane2009 9:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Extrapolating form those graphs, it looks as if shear in most areas of the Atlantic basin would fall to zero by early July.


That's sounds similar to what happened in July 2005
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
258. NCHurricane2009 9:23 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Btw, I hope no one is falling for that disturbance in the SW Caribbean this afternoon, it will break your heart LOL

(moving into Central America)
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
259. AstroHurricane001 9:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting MississippiWx:
Probability of above average temps. Look for those SSTs to keep going up with these temps and the NAO going way negative:



It looks like a clear example of an overheated Earth on a La Nina, cold PDO, warm-cold-warm Atlantic tripole, cold Kushiro current, warm Arctic anomaly, and Humboldt cut-off pattern. The EUROSIP and other cimate models predicted a warm Atlantic and Indian ocean this summer, and look at what we have. A lot of the extra heat is still in the Southern Hemisphere, and over the next several weeks we'll see some of those anomalies shifting to the north as the southern hemisphere cools under the influence of the southern winter andLa Nina.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
260. CybrTeddy 9:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
I hit 100 degrees today in Hillsborough CaneWarning per WU. That's amazing.
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261. xcool 9:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    



kind crazy look by af cost
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
262. ShenValleyFlyFish 9:28 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been reading back i see hes back


Which manifestation? Lol
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
263. CaneWarning 9:29 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I hit 100 degrees today in Hillsborough CaneWarning per WU. That's amazing.


I know. At least it's a dry heat, at least by our standards. I'm not sure I've seen my car say 100 before now!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
264. CaneWarning 9:30 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Which manifestation? Lol


I haven't seen him. The person they think is him can spell...so that makes me think it isn't him.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
266. WaterWitch11 9:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Google: twhcracker Click on the first citation comes and it sends you right to her blog.


thank you, i looked to see if she had one i couldn't find it.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
267. xcool 9:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Baltimorebirds hey
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269. xcool 9:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Baltimorebirds .that ok ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
272. NOVArules 9:38 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
stupid keyboard.Anyway it's still quite in the atlantic as we speak.Sorry guys if you see some of my post misspelled.It's this crappy keyboard.
You can always edit it :P. And I am amazed on what I am seeing in the west Africa map in a previous post
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
274. Chicklit 9:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


It looks like a clear example of an overheated Earth on a La Nina, cold PDO, warm-cold-warm Atlantic tripole, cold Kushiro current, warm Arctic anomaly, and Humboldt cut-off pattern...


I don't know what you just said, but I'm impressed.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255
275. SouthALWX 9:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
is that showing a chance for a TC ... overland?? 0.o
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276. EricSFL 9:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Hi all.
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759
277. xcool 9:41 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
work on my vehicle last Three Days...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
280. EricSFL 9:44 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Hey how the hell are you.I know but on my sorry computer it takes for ever to load.


I'm the heck fine!
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759
282. EricSFL 9:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What happend to that wave that eeryone said was going to turn into alex.


which one?
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759
283. Caribbeanislands101 9:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    

The EATL Wave continues to the west, we will see if the computer models are right that this wave will develop into a tropical depression along 30W. We've never had a tropical Cyclone form that far east this early, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. It will be interesting to see how the wave develops a couple of days from now.
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
284. xcool 9:48 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Baltimorebirds /over-heating and big tune up.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
286. 850Realtor 9:49 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
StSimons u still here?
Member Since: September 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
288. xcool 9:52 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Baltimorebirds . i hope get done asp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
289. AstroHurricane001 9:52 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting SevereHurricane:
How much more similar can it get?





I noticed some things about 2010: the Gulf Stream is more broken, the northeastern MDR is warmer, the Guinea extention of the cold Benguela Current is warmer, the SSTs along Katrina's path are warmer in some places, the 20C-line is more flat generally, the Caribbean's heat is concentrated near Cuba and looks more like September, the Gulf is warmer overall, and more heat is concentrated around the Central American coast.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
291. aspectre 9:54 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
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294. EricSFL 9:59 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
OMG. I show up and the blog dies.
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759
295. AstroHurricane001 10:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting Chicklit:


I don't know what you just said, but I'm impressed.


Impressed by the fact that Earth is warming, or by my analysis?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
296. 850Realtor 10:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
If you report a post to the blog administrator does it go to the person who wrote the blog or admin?
Member Since: September 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
297. Bordonaro 10:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
The Arkansas Flooding Tragedy could have been avoided!!

ALL people, no matter where you are, or where you are going ALWAYS should listen for weather bulletins, keep eyes open for watches or warnings. NOAA does a great job at the local NWS level to inform the public. People just need to pay attention!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
298. Chicklit 10:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
That you can put all that into one sentence.
Anyway, off to swim.
I also wonder where the park rangers were when the camp site was flooding. Very bad.
But if they can misplace cadavers and remains in the Arlington National Cemetery, I suppose anything can happen.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255
299. will45 10:06 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Quoting 850Realtor:
If you report a post to the blog administrator does it go to the person who wrote the blog or admin?



It goes to admin not to blog owner
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
300. Drakoen 10:06 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
Windsat this morning featured a broad low level circulation within the ITCZ associated with the tropical wave near 27W

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
301. xcool 10:08 PM GMT on June 11, 2010    
hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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