Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not so sold that there is a band of shear there. The CIMSS map shows shear while this one doesn't.

I've wondered the differences between those 2.
And I often favored the one you showed to the Cimss one. However, looking at Water Vapor and Satellite loops, it does appear something is creating W to E movement atm in that area. I assume this is the shear?
So maybe Cimss is right in that instance? Idk. Just my take on it anyways.

Quoting Levi32:
Only thing keeping this from TD status is the broad/elongated surface center. It needs to consolidate and become more defined to be classified.

yup I agree

Quoting Levi32:
Only thing keeping this from TD status is the broad/elongated surface center. It needs to consolidate and become more defined to be classified.

Agreed. I have yet to see proof of a tight consolidated closed low, so far everything I've seen indicates a broad low.

centex the waters are just as warm now as they would be in mid-season. So examining this disturbance with mid-season expectations is not that unrealistic

Quoting nocaneindy:


I've wondered the differences between those 2.
And I often favored the one you showed to the Cimss one. However, looking at Water Vapor and Satellite loops, it does appear something is creating W to E movement atm in that area. I assume this is the shear?
So maybe Cimss is right in that instance? Idk. Just my take on it anyways.

We'll find out if and when the system goes through it, right. Lol.

2861 Levi32

Quoting Weather456: 92L surpasses 2005's June storms. Conditions in 2005, or for most years cannot support such systems in the EATL. 92L is very special.
2010 may end up taking away some of 2005's records as it already did with SSTs.

"Who would have thought we would live to see that happen."

Me, on 7:06pmGMT 27May10 for blog1493post519, "...HurricaneSeason fires up between 11June and 14June...And created the Absurds: any combination of CapeVerde storms reaching&sustaining full hurricane status before the July4th evening fireworks begin..."
An INEPT repeat on blog1494post3824
When the surrounding circumstances are new, sometimes being less than trusting in previous experience (ie closer to being naive and ignorant) about what should happen is an advantage.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They expect WNW movement along with further intensification.

The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

Oh I see.

Quoting Levi32:
Only thing keeping this from TD status is the broad/elongated surface center. It needs to consolidate and become more defined to be classified.

And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?

and the further south it stays the better chance that 92L has to develop further

It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.

More Waves are coming.

Quoting txsweetpea:
Everyone seems pretty sure this "thing" will develope, I am thankful all of you (or most) are on top of the 2010 hurricane season. Any ideas of where it will end up?

That water vapor image in post 3022 might give some clues. The computer models make it go west and WNW toward the Lesser Antilles, which seems likely. I am thinking 95% chance of TD 1 and 80% TS Alex, don't think at this time Hurricane Alex possible.

Why? Look at that U-shape in the water vapor imagery E of the United States, that's another upper trough about to become cut-off into an upper low to the E of deep-layered ridging. I think such a cut-off upper low would bring psbl Alex toward the N Lesser Antilles while shearing it, and then it will diminish under the shear while crossing the northern Lesser Antilles into the NE Caribbean. While a shallow system, its remnant would then turn westward across the N Caribbean (don't know about regeneration way down the road, too early to talk about that).

Talk about rapid organization...

0200 UTC Last Night



0200 UTC Latest Satellite Image

like Alex.

3059. xcool

Nice "forest" shot there.

Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.

WINDSAT revealed its closed but it isn't tight, it broad.

Nah, not too concerned about the lack of a closed low. I remember Dolly could not close off until well into the Carrib. Main thing is will it continue to flare up convention and rotate.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?

It looks like to me it has already seperated from the ITCZ.......i really can't believe what is behind 92L tho....HOLLY CRAP...and MJO IS COMING SOON TOO......Gang i hope your ready for a very bumpy JULY coming.....

Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

I stated that about 8 pages ago and they told me to
sssshhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.

More convection the lower the pressure gets, the more convergence and closed low comes soon after, we're seeing step one.

Seastep thanks.

Wow. Just wow.

Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.

Closed but broad:

am going too have high speed net and i be move in too my new home

xcool - post 3048

Quoting taco2me61:

I stated that about 8 pages ago and they told me to
sssshhhhhhhhhhhhhh

YA I think you was correct Taco....good call....sorry to repeat what you said.

Quoting Drakoen:

Looks nice.

Looks like an extratropical storm well south of 92L in the southern hemisphere. Both so well defined compared to the other side of the world where the precip is a large smear.

Honestly, I don't think a tight low is that important right now. This thing is being driven by surface convergence and upper level divergence. Winds pushing in over the water need to go somewhere, winds pulling out high up need to come from somewhere. That'll keep the convection intensifying on its own.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?

Tropical cyclones can develop within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and do all the time. The ITCZ is a limiting factor which we are seeing now with the broadness of the circulation, but that doesn't mean storms can't form while embedded in it. The ITCZ itself wouldn't prevent classification.

FUTURE ALEX wants birth really fast....damit...that would not be a bad thing......the stronger it gets the more likely it might move more north and become a fish storm.....come on baby grow......the gap is there.

I guess the NHC will study it overnight since it'd take several more days to reach land, but if it still looks like this at 5AM it'd be hard to see why they don't upgrade to a TD.

Frankly I've seen plenty of sicker-looking named storms, but can understand some conservatism while it's so far away.

Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

Hi there
I hope this doesnt affect Trinidad we had some disasterous floods about 2 weeks ago.

its getting bigger in size peeps hmmm 92l might pass the td 1 status and be introduce to us as ts alex imo

What a beast of a storm

Now models are pointing north. Wooohooo. I am just gonna wait for it to be around 50W =P

92L still very impressive. In fact, it looks like it is continuing to improve in organization.

Quoting MZV:
I guess the NHC will study it overnight since it'd take several more days to reach land, but if it still looks like this at 5AM it'd be hard to see why they don't upgrade to a TD.

Frankly I've seen plenty of sicker-looking named storms, but can understand some conservatism while it's so far away.

I think what happens at the NHC is that when a system is developing, its wind speed hasn't risen up yet, or it doesn't have a closed spin yet despite a good satellite appearance.

But say an organized TC quickly finds itself in a bad shear environment. It goes from organized to disorganizes so fast on satellite (but TC winds don't disapear instantly), so a TC can look ill in its decay phase (look even sicker than 92L) while its still a TC.

0300 UTC - Convection continues to consolidate and intensify. Still looks like a moderate strength tropical storm.

Quoting 7544:
its getting bigger in size peeps hmmm 92l might pass the td 1 status and be introduce to us as ts alex imo

NOPE its not a depression yet.....It truly is not without having a tighter Closed Surface Low develop....Maybe by 5am we might have a Depression........MAYBE!

Have absolutely loved watching this one. Not normal and the progression of organization by all charts, etc. has been great to observe.

Quoting Tazmanian:
am going too have high speed net and i be move in too my new home

Night and day. Enjoy! :)