Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:
LOL @ the 0z GFS...splits the energy of the system in two pieces.

60 hours:

LOL!

Yea and if the CMC and NOGAPS outplays the other models on this one, then everything we thought we knew about the tropics is all out of whack now lol

Quoting Drakoen:
If this develops I wonder what that says about the ECMWF...

The GFS would also deserve credit for seeing this thing coming off and being a potential problem farther in advance than even the ECMWF.

HMMM CMC GOOD JOB HA

Quoting Levi32:
LOL @ the 0z GFS...splits the energy of the system in two pieces.

60 hours:

What a joke the GFS has become.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Yea and if the CMC and NOGAPS outplays the other models on this one, then everything we thought we knew about the tropics is all out of whack now lol

It already is...lol.

Throw the models out the window, 92L is very close TD status if not a TD already in my opinion.

ECMWF developed 90L. So that tells you how well its been doing this year already.

Quoting Drakoen:
If this develops I wonder what that says about the ECMWF...

Think theres a brief window for a possible tropical depression to develope with an outside chance at ts before it runs into that shear zone ahead.

CMC KILL ECMWF IMO NO Question

I'm not sure the shear is as bad as everyone is making it out to be. Also, look at the shear forecast. Am I just looking at it wrong?

Quoting Levi32:


The GFS would also deserve credit for seeing this thing coming off and being a potential problem farther in advance than even the ECMWF.

I am saying the ECMWF doesn't deserve any credit.

looks good
I wonder what will happen at D-max :S

Quoting scott39:
I do want to know how concerned you are about 92L( possibly future Alex) potientially effecting land?

That's kinda far out there right now, but the only concern within the next week will be the eastern Caribbean islands. A northerly track taking its towards PR or north of would likely result in a weak system or open wave that isn't much of a threat. If it's a more southerly track we could be possibly talking about a TS, but that's assuming this develops within the next 36-48 hours. I'd like to see this decide if it's going to become a TD or not before I speculate too much on impacts to land, which are still many days away.

Do models collect data from past seasons?

Quoting hurricane23:


Think theres a brief window for a possible tropical depression to develope with an outside chance at ts before it runs into that shear zone ahead.

If it stays south of 15N it may potentially survive longer...

Quoting CaneWarning:
I'm not sure the shear is as bad as everyone is making it out to be. Also, look at the shear forecast. Am I just looking at it wrong?

i said that same thing when we had IKE in 2008

Quoting stormpetrol:
Throw the models out the window, 92L is very close TD status if not a TD already in my opinion.

Sometimes we put models on a pedestal too much. Models can give some insight, but when you see something happening now (like 92L having a well-defined center) and the models telling you it doesnt' for instance, ignore that model.

Quoting Drakoen:


I am saying the ECMWF doesn't deserve any credit.

Exactly.

Quoting scott39:
Do models collect data from past seasons?

They're updated to include climatology on a regular basis.

Link


Is that too big?
Please tell me I m bad with this stuff.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL922010

Quoting Levi32:


I guess that's what we mere mortals are for :)

Does the sun go fully down where you live Levi. I know in some places there, the sun may go down but there is still twilight all the way till sunrise.

Remember, all the ingredients are all there and they are there above normal levels, anything can happen, even in June.


20%, much more chance than the last wave they put 0% on.
SAL ain't a problem.

Shear isn't really a problem.


Only thing i can see that might stop it from developing is it's position.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Throw the models out the window, 92L is very close TD status if not a TD already in my opinion.

then you have to pay for a new window

Quoting Drakoen:


I am saying the ECMWF doesn't deserve any credit.

Well it did start showing this 3 days ago I think, but not before all the other global models were showing something as well.

Darn it JLPR
Ya beat me to it!
Oh well two times good info!

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
They're updated to include climatology on a regular basis.

Do you think they might have some problems getting a grip on 92L, as far as intensity and track, because they have never dealt with one like this in June before?

Quoting spathy:
Darn it JLPR
Ya beat me to it!
Oh well two times good info!

XD

Old convection dying, new cells already exploding upward with cold tops. This is a sign that 92L is not about to dissipate after the first burst of convection the way every other disturbance has so far this year. The upward motion in the area is solid and the heat/moisture in the air is getting utilized by the system.

Quoting Levi32:


Well it did start showing this 3 days ago I think, but not before all the other global models were showing something as well.

I don't consider this to be development on the ECMWF model which has the best resolution out of all the models...

Tazmanian LMAO

Quoting AussieStorm:



20%, much more chance than the last wave they put 0% on.
SAL ain't a problem.

Shear isn't really a problem.


Only thing i can see that might stop it from developing is it's position.

was that needed???? that commet he posted is way pass the page we are on all so hes a downcaster dont think any one needed too see that commets post

still kinda ragged to like to see how it reacts in the mid to late after noon tomorrow.

Quoting Tazmanian:


then you have to pay for a new window

better than having to pay for the models lmao!

Quoting ElConando:


Does the sun go fully down where you live Levi. I know in some places there, the sun may go down but there is still twilight all the way till sunrise.

We don't get a pitch black night here, which is only 5 hours 22 minutes long right now, but it gets dark.

Quoting Drakoen:


I don't consider this to be development on the ECMWF model which has the best resolution out of all the models...

Well I must admit, I was more drawn to the 959mb hurricane it had in the eastern Pacific..lol.

Well I'm tired (yawn) I'm heading to bed. I'll see you guys in the morning. By the way the current time over the system is 1:30 AM.

0300 UTC


Have a great night all!

stormpetrol HAHA

Quoting Levi32:


Well I must admit, I was more drawn to the 959mb hurricane it had in the eastern Pacific..lol.

which it completely missed on too lol

Quoting ElConando:
still kinda ragged to like to see how it reacts in the mid to late after noon tomorrow.

By then, it'll probably have been TD1

Quoting Tazmanian:



was that needed???? that commet he posted is way pass the page we are on all so hes a downcaster dont think any one needed too see that commets post

If you haven't noticed,I have since removed it.
BTW, I didn't remove it cause of your comment, just take a chill pill man. you need to chillax.

I am just cheking in so do we have 92L?

I just noticed that after my original fail of saying May 25th for the 1st named storm, I said we would have our first system on June 13th, amazing that I could be right

but there is a 1st time for everything lol

Quoting antonio28:
I am just cheking in so do we have 92L?

For about 6 hours now yea.

Quoting antonio28:
I am just cheking in so do we have 92L?

yup, was designated about 8 hours ago

Goodnight everyone, well we'll see what tomorrow brings with 92L

is this...does this...wait... is this a td now...no...wait...yes...what is goin on here