Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Jerry...I've got a walrus on my blog....he looks kinda familiar....


;)

Here we go, 3-day loop of surface analysis....shows the "wave" stalling, which by that token alone proves it's not a tropical wave.

Very, very low pressures in the tropics in 2 weeks on the 18z GFS. The 1012mb isobar is north of the Caribbean and the Cape Verde islands, with sub-1010mb pressures across the deep tropics.

Quoting Levi32:


I'm pointing out an error that the NHC made. That is not to say I am better, but I will point out their errors. I forgot to mention TPW imagery as well...which also showed trough rather than tropical wave.

I wouldn't consider it an error but more so an act of precaution. The MIMIC-TPW makes things ambiguous as I see a peak moisture surge that comes off the coast of Africa and advects westward. Another smaller peak is noted out ahead of the aforementioned one making it unclear as to the nature of the peaks. You can see they begin intereacting and the small peak gets influence by the cyclonic turning of the larger peak. After reviewing the 5 day movie of the 850mb vorticity my point is further illustrated; you can see a maximum in the 850mb that advect westward but then stalls out within the ITCZ. At first it appears as a tropical wave but the lack of motion overall make it seem more like a perturbation or surface trough within the ITCZ.

big picture up to 612 pm edt next northern hemisphere update at or just after 9 pm

IIRC the CFS is also forecasting a system in the EATL in the GFS's time frame and so was the ECMWF but dropped it.

Second Blog Entry of the day:

Blog Update!

Hurricane Season Blog #20: Daily Update - Part 2 - ITCZ Disturbance -

what in the world is the tropics doing now

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what in the world is the tropics doing now

Read my blog, it's all there.

Ok so what models are developing what?

I am not on my computer so I do not have my links

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok so what models are developing what?

I am not on my computer so I do not have my links

All in my updated blog, lol. I didn't include the ECMWF because it keeps it as a 1013/1014 MB low with open isobars so I didn't bother to mention it.

Quoting StormW:
Drak;Levi,

Really enjoy reading your discussions with each other...ya both have a very keen eye and excellent obs! I have to say, it's definitely a pleasure to be here forecasting with you guy's! It's great to see how both of you have acquired a vast amount knowledge of the tropics, since first meeting both of you here!

Agreed. When did you first come to the blog?

WWWWWWOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When did this happen

What happen with the SW Caribbean

Quoting Drakoen:


I wouldn't consider it an error but more so an act of precaution. The MIMIC-TPW makes things ambiguous as I see a peak moisture surge that comes off the coast of Africa and advects westward. Another smaller peak is noted out ahead of the aforementioned one making it unclear as to the nature of the peaks. You can see they begin intereacting and the small peak gets influence by the cyclonic turning of the larger peak. After reviewing the 5 day movie of the 850mb vorticity my point is further illustrated; you can see a maximum in the 850mb that advect westward but then stalls out within the ITCZ. At first it appears as a tropical wave but the lack of motion overall make it seem more like a perturbation or surface trough within the ITCZ.

Well if you're talking about the vort max that came off all the way up at 15N then I can see your point, but the disturbance spontaneously appeared in the ITCZ around 30W at 7N, much farther south than the max that was around the Cape Verde Islands. I can see how they would mistake that for a wave, but after even 12 hours it was clear this thing wasn't moving like it should if it was a wave. Satellite imagery didn't support it either. Oh well. It was interesting to watch, for me at least.

Quoting Floodman:


Methane hydrates are naturally occurring "ices" and form due to temperature and pressure. While I'm guessing dispersanrts may aid in their formation, they form all on their own; the GOM itself is rich in hydrates

Uh-oh. Link Link

Arctic sea ice extent:

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WWWWWWOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When did this happen

What happen with the SW Caribbean

It just happened now with the increased model support it got. Levi32 has been watching it since the morning, so I give him credit for that.

Are the models calling for anything in the Atlantic anytime soon Alex is late and 'm getting impatient

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Uh-oh. Link Link

Arctic sea ice extent:

Whatever. Go post on an Al Gore blog, lol, just kidding.

Quoting StormW:
Drak;Levi,

Really enjoy reading your discussions with each other...ya both have a very keen eye and excellent obs! I have to say, it's definitely a pleasure to be here forecasting with you guy's! It's great to see how both of you have acquired a vast amount knowledge of the tropics, since first meeting both of you here!

Well I thank you, and it is my pleasure to be here with you as well!

Quoting Levi32:
Very, very low pressures in the tropics in 2 weeks on the 18z GFS. The 1012mb isobar is north of the Caribbean and the Cape Verde islands, with sub-1010mb pressures across the deep tropics.

Wow, and a TD-like packet of moisture in the Yucatan Channel.

Notice the shading over the ITCZ disturbance we are watching. This is the 18z.

18z.

Quoting StormW:


2007

That's when I started lurking (I started lurking with Felix 07') and I remember you. I was 10 at that time, I'm guessing you were in your 40s?

Quoting Levi32:


Well if you're talking about the vort max that came off all the way up at 15N then I can see your point, but the disturbance spontaneously appeared in the ITCZ around 30W at 7N, much farther south than the max that was around the Cape Verde Islands. I can see how they would mistake that for a wave, but after even 12 hours it was clear this thing wasn't moving like it should if it was a wave. Satellite imagery didn't support it either. Oh well. It was interesting to watch, for me at least.

It didn't spontaneously appear if you track the vorticity advection. They waited till enough stalling was in place to then place a surface trough within the ITCZ approxmimately when 24 hours of stalling was established.

Satelite imagery is sometimes not the most useful thing when we get into talking about the ITCZ.

Whatever. Go post on an Al Gore blog, lol, just kidding.

woo hoo! yes!!!!

:)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Whatever. Go post on an Al Gore blog, lol, just kidding.

i'll remember you said that when all the ice is gone

Quoting Drakoen:


It didn't spontaneously appear if you track the vorticity advection. They waited till enough stalling was in place to then place a surface trough within the ITCZ approxmimately when 24 hours of stalling was established.

Satelite imagery is sometimes not the most useful thing when we get into talking about the ITCZ.

What do you suggest then? vorticity maps?

Quoting Drakoen:


It didn't spontaneously appear if you track the vorticity advection. They waited till enough stalling was in place to then place a surface trough within the ITCZ approxmimately when 24 hours of stalling was established.

Satelite imagery is sometimes not the most useful thing when we get into talking about the ITCZ.

Except that they still have the tropical wave up lol. Ah....they aren't incompetent..I can see where the mistake could have been made. It's funny the things we track this closely when there are no named storms around lol.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What do you suggest then? vorticity maps?

Voriticity maps, MIMIC-TPW, satellite derived winds

Quoting Levi32:


Except that they still have the tropical wave up lol. Ah....they aren't incompetent..I can see where the mistake could have been made. It's funny the things we track this closely when there are no named storms around lol.

Yes because there is a peak out ahead of the surface trough

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i'll remember you said that when all the ice is gone

All the ice? I don't think all the ice will disappear, maybe some ice but not all of it.

Quoting StormW:


Actually, I turned 50 in Aug. of that year.

Wow well you look good for your age. I was thinking 42.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Hello there, collegues, what's going on? How are the tropics?

All on my blog.

Hi All!

Neat to see how long people have lurked here. I myself started lurking in the 06 season but didn't post until last year.

Tropics wise, I'm glad so far we haven't had a booming start. Right now my office is still in trailers from Katrina. We are set to move into our new office in a few weeks. Very sturdy, concrete reinforced vaults, the works. It will be our command post for people from all over the state so we REALLY need the tropics to hold off for a while.

Quoting Drakoen:


Yes because there is a peak out ahead of the surface trough

Ya that hasn't moved in over 2 days. There is no one trough at one longitude here. It's been elongated east-west as is common with ITCZ disturbances, and broad rotation has been observed on satellite and TPW imagery, at times in two circulations, left and right of the 30W line. The thing west of 30W is not a tropical wave.

MiamiHurricanes09

you mean the 18Z and you already posted it hey take a look it has purple in the E Atlantic and a strip of purple in the SW Caribbean well let us see what the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and the 18Z maps tomrrow have to show maybe a increase in purple over the E atlantic and SW Caribbean and a darker purple over E Atlantic maybe even a blue and maybe a small spot of a darker purple in the SW Caribbean so let us wait and see

Quoting Levi32:


Ya that hasn't moved in over 2 days. There is no one trough at one longitude here. It's been elongated east-west as is common with ITCZ disturbances, and broad rotation has been observed on satellite and TPW imagery, at times in two circulations, left and right of the 30W line.

I believe that the NHC should label it yellow. WINDSAT revealed a broad area of low pressure and you can see decent convection.

Quoting StormW:


Thanks...you're too gracious...I don't even remember 42! LOL!!

Lol.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big picture up to 612 pm edt next northern hemisphere update at or just after 9 pm

Wow, two supercell thunderstorms just fizzled out before reaching S. Ontario.

Quoting Levi32:

Some rotation is evident around 25˚W.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow well you look good for your age. I was thinking 42.

It's because he sees everything through rose-coloured glasses LOL

Good Evening All.
Sunny day, cool and breezy here. A big change from the past week...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All the ice? I don't think all the ice will disappear, maybe some ice but not all of it.

all thats in the northern hemisphere except what will be left on greenland

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some rotation is evident around 25˚W.

Consolidating more towards 30W now.