Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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4151. Levi32 2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 13th: Invest 92L Quick Sunday Update Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4152. MiamiHurricanes09 2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4153. Cavin Rawlins 2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
And 2 months apart.... Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4154. Levi32 2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: Here's a windsat of the sloppy western surface circulation ~5hrs ago, elongated like the eastern circulation we got a pass of lastnight. Ascat was a total miss this morning...I can't see this being called til we are down to one tight low at the surface.. I agree. I'm unsure of how the NHC goes about labeling TDs now, but I have a feeling they won't like the elongation of the surface circulation, and will wait to upgrade it. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4155. Cavin Rawlins 2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
4150. Skyepony 10:58 AM AST on June 13, 2010 As Drak pointed be careful when using windsat especially with cloud cover. Hold for ASCAT. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4156. kimoskee 3:00 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Met Service of Jamaica website June 13, 2010 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Trough across Jamaica while a Tropical Wave moves west of the island. Comment… The Tropical Wave will continue westward and a High Pressure Ridge gradually build north of the Caribbean by tomorrow. TODAY'S FORECAST This Morning… Mainly sunny most places but partly cloudy across northeastern parishes. This Afternoon… Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across western parishes and hilly inland areas elsewhere. Tonight… Becoming fair. Maximum Temperatures expected today: Kingston… 33 degrees Celsius. Montego Bay… 34 degrees Celsius. 3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Mon… Mainly sunny morning with isolated afternoon showers mainly across western parishes. Tues & Wed… Mainly sunny mornings but scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across western and central parishes. Regionally…Tropical Waves continue to move across the southern Caribbean, while a persistent Trough remains across the Bahamas. kjb Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

4157. Chicklit 3:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I believe this qualifies as "hyperactive." Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

4158. MiamiHurricanes09 3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
92L Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4159. plywoodstatenative 3:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Does anyone have an idea of steering winds? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

4160. MiamiHurricanes09 3:05 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
12z Surface Analysis has the wrong pressure associated with 92L, it is labeled 1012 millibars when it really has a pressure of 1011 millibars. 12z Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4161. Ossqss 3:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Another just coming off of Africa..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-wv.html Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

4162. MiamiHurricanes09 3:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: Does anyone have an idea of steering winds? West-northwestward motion and then general westward motion. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4163. VAbeachhurricanes 3:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
still two rotations, needs to pick one Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

4164. MiamiHurricanes09 3:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4165. plywoodstatenative 3:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

4166. MiamiHurricanes09 3:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I'm sticking with the BAMM track, SHIPS suggesting a 50 mile and hour tropical storm in 24 hours. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4167. scott39 3:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: still two rotations, needs to pick one Im afaid it will Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

4168. nrtiwlnvragn 3:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Recent ASCAT Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

4169. VAbeachhurricanes 3:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards? Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

4170. MiamiHurricanes09 3:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
* Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments:** 19976

4171. MrstormX 3:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Just wait until early evening when the convection starts all over again, the NHC will have no choice but to name it TD-1. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4172. FLWeatherFreak91 3:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards? 20-30 knots 500 miles ahead of it. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

4173. Cavin Rawlins 3:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Someone draw the two rotations on visible or RGB imagery. I highly doubt there are two rotations since vorticity at CIMSS only measures veering and backing of winds not full rotations. The second vort is being caused by the leading edge of convection. it is broad but a don't think there are two centers. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4174. MiamiHurricanes09 3:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Recent ASCAT Still elongated but much tighter than before. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4175. stormwatcherCI 3:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The system is tightening gradually. I woke up about 5am this morning and about 5-6 hrs later I have continued to see improvements in the circulation each hr. If we extrapolate this, a TD later tonight or early Wednesday should not be hard to believe. ??? Later tonight or early Wednesday ? What happened to Monday and Tuesday ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

4176. reedzone 3:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
If 92L heads north of the islands, we will have problem for the USA, lonng shot but if shear remains light, don't be surprised. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

4177. Cavin Rawlins 3:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
ASCAT is out...closed but broad low Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4178. Levi32 3:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Someone draw the two rotations on visible or RGB imagery. I highly doubt there are two rotations since vorticity at CIMSS only measures veering and backing of winds not full rotations. The second vort is being caused by the leading edge of convection. it is broad but a don't think there are two centers. I remind you that it was the same yesterday....RGB looked like one circulation. ASCAT told a different story. Not two circulations, but a strong vort max near or west of 40W like an amplified trough extending west of the main center. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4179. Cavin Rawlins 3:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
4175. stormwatcherCI 11:13 AM AST on June 13, 2010 A type, early Monday Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4180. Levi32 3:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
New ASCAT, not nearly as bad as it was elongation-wise, but still broad. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4181. MiamiHurricanes09 3:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Recent ASCAT ASCAT suggesting that the COC is around the red circle: Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4182. scott39 3:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting reedzone: If 92L heads north of the islands, we will have problem for the USA, lonng shot but if shear remains light, don't be surprised. If it goes S we could still have problems for USA. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

4183. stormwatcherCI 3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: 4175. stormwatcherCI 11:13 AM AST on June 13, 2010 A type, early Monday Haha, that's what I thought you meant. LOL Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

4184. Cavin Rawlins 3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
But Levi, satellite imagery prevails above all other data, especially erroneous scatterometers. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4185. MrstormX 3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4186. MechEngMet 3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Good morning to all. Thanks for all the great information. I'm not able to "+" (or "-") any of the better comments this morning. Is it just me, or is there some new blog rule? 92L should be a TD soon (if not now). I concur that a TS moving North-ish on the East side of the BP blowout could be a desirable event. I'm not wishcasting any damage or harm to any of my friends or relatives on the FL gulf coast, but if we could get this oil blown out of the LA/MS marshes that would be a beneficial event. We must all look for the 'good' in any event. Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

4187. yonzabam 3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
So, 40 knts of shear in its path? Pretty academic where it's heading for, then, as there won't be anything left of it in a few days. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732

4188. GainesvilleGator 3:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
The last update from the NHC had an orange circle & 30% change of 92L becomming a tropical cyclone within 48 hrs. What do you think, a red circle by 5:00 PM update? Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 732

4189. scott39 3:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting yonzabam: So, 40 knts of shear in its path? Pretty academic where it's heading for, then, as there won't be anything left of it in a few days. ? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

4190. MiamiHurricanes09 3:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4191. Levi32 3:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: But Levi, satellite imagery prevails above all other data, especially erroneous scatterometers. This is true. To me the elongation yesterday was obvious on satellite, but has improved some today, as evidenced by the new ASCAT. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4192. MiamiHurricanes09 3:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: This is true. To me the elongation yesterday was obvious on satellite, but has improved some today, as evidenced by the new ASCAT. I expect a TD later. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4193. nrtiwlnvragn 3:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Both scats caught the area ~36-37W but not the area ~33-34W, so we don't know that their may be a competing circulation there. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

4194. scottsvb 3:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Broad center is near 6.7N and 36.1W moving 280dg @ 11kts pressure 1010mbs Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

4195. Cavin Rawlins 3:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
24hr Change Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4196. weatherwatcher12 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Latest shear values per the TCFP: Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

4197. HaboobsRsweet 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I expect a TD later. I do not...NHC wont call it watch. They only have an orange area and barely. They will go to 50 or 70% next. TD by the morning it not out of the question though. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

4198. MrstormX 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
To bad Avila is not doing the next TWO, im sure he would have something quirky to say. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4199. MiamiHurricanes09 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting scottsvb: Broad center is near 6.7N and 36.1N moving 280dg @ 11kts pressure 1010mbs You have no proof of it having a pressure of 1010 millibars, and you're COC location is off. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4200. Levi32 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Notice that 37W is more or less in between where CIMSS has the two vort maxes, indicating net consolidation. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4201. indianrivguy 3:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC. don't you have those rotation arrows backwards? Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1786

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