Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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wow and look at the cmc it has gone nuts too aiming at so fla hmmmm
That's not that unusual IKE, I have seen time and time again the GFS advertise a system in the long/mid range drop it for a few days, only to bring it back. Most of the time the Euro will be very consistent on a system developing (i.e now) only for the GFS to come on board later. IMO, this is the best potential system we have had so far this season...
Cyclones to the right..
Here I am,.
Stuck in the middle of the blog with you :)
LOL
Check back on how the ECMWF did with 90L. GFS did a much better job w/90L.
YEE HAW!
Hurricane Checklist
(THIS PAGE IS FORMATTED FOR PRINTING)
Buy supplies early to prepare for the storm. When the storm threatens, lines will be long and supplies short.
Go check back the last 4-5 years with the GFS, time and time again it shows systems in the long range and then drops them for a long time; than after every other model is on board it jumps back on again
Its almost like its saying
"Hey look I see development in 16 days!! Wait no one is listening"
"Hey I still see development. Guess no one cares"
*5-6 days pass as the GFS shows nothing, other models begin to hint more and more; then all of a sudden*
"Hey I told you guys I saw development, but now that you see it too I will come out of my corner and say it again!!"
It is?
I am referring to the overall statistics. You cannot base a models overall trends on 1 system. Again, the 12z GFS had this system most of the other models are showing, so it is the GFS going back and forth. The Euro, has had this sytem consistently for the past few days
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 715 PM EDT for central
Liberty and central long counties...
At 640 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Creek Island... or
about over Hinesville... moving southwest at 10 mph.
Some locations in or near the path of this storm include...
Allenhurst... Flemington... Fort Stewart... Gum Branch... Hinesville...
Ludowici... McIntosh and Walthourville.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A tornado has been observed with this storm and may redevelop at any
time. If you are in the path of this storm... take cover immediately
in a sturdy building. Mobile homes and vehicles are not safe.
*******************************
... Charleston NOAA Weather Radio all hazards station will be off
the air until further notice...
NOAA Weather Radio all hazards transmitter khb-29 operating on a
frequency of 162.550 mhz will be off the air until further
notice. You can tune to station wxm-93 at cross on a frequency of
162.475 mhz... wng-628 at Georgetown on a frequency of 162.500 mhz
or station wxj-23 at Green Pond on a frequency of 162.450 mhz to
get your latest weather information.
**************************************
NOUS62 KCHS 202022
FTMCLX
Message Date: Jun 20 2010 20:22:44
WSR-88D KCLX IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
You gotta be kidding me... NWS radar AND weather band are down during a tornado warning!! This is the third time this week the radar has been down!
LMAO Pat
Ok, still watching him then. Not singing a song until the official funeral.
Probably I will survive -.-
Graphic Update: 5pm EDT
Images made by cyclonekid
*Click the images to make them larger*
Hurricane Celia
Graphics Update: 5pm EDT
Images made by cyclonekid
*Click the images to make them larger*
CMC 12z 84 hours
Lol.
I created a track for a storm if it were to have created all those warnings
What do you think? lol
ROFLOL!!!!
Smack in the middle of oil of it. err. all of it.
Viewing: 751 - 801
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