Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Smack in the middle of oil of it. err. all of it.
Reminds me of the TEST storm the Navy created earlier this year for an exercise, affected about every installation on the East Coast.
:( That's not good news......
yeah that's a crazy track, I hope no real storms get ideas from there XD
Dang, I couldn't find the link to where those were. Used to have it for last year. You happen to have it?
Graphic
Warning
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Thank you.
It's behind what we call "The Curtain of Showers". Dare you look?
If someone here can define the terms or post a link,it would be a big help. Thanks.
Once this translates into the Atlantic, we'll likely experience the same thing the EPAC is.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR AND
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...ABOUT 20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND MUCH OF CUBA AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
We've got another area mentioned, though.
Invest
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Numbers 90 through 99 are reserved for tropical disturbances which have the
potential to become tropical or subtropical cyclones. Although not required, the
90’s should be assigned sequentially and reused throughout the calendar year.
I haven't posted in a while.... I only come during hurricane season because this is the best place to get info from....you all are great!
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