Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

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The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1912. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As far as model runs go…If I don’t see the seedling or genesis of a potential system…I discount them.


What are you all doing up at this hour?
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Models are tricky when it comes to forming tropical systems... Once systems are established then it becomes easier. But tracking all these little pieces of energy is quite a task especially when there is no real observations, like in the MDR, that's why the G-4 is so crucial.
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1904....Ummmm...Then why did you post it again?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
1909. xcool




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So if the ECMWF drops development at 00Z it means it is just a bad run right?


That is all I am saying
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We lost a yellow circle:


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Up to 20% now.
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1905. xcool
hmmm
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Quoting btwntx08:

ummm consistly showing 4 days in a row i dont think so also i dont ingore the runs that dont show nothing its just the run couldve been off


It developed 90L for that long and ended up being wrong

All of the models can be wrong, doesnt matter what one it is

I am impressed with the consistency of both the ECMWF and NOGAPS, but you have to look at all the models
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As far as model runs go…If I don’t see the seedling or genesis of a potential system…I discount them.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
JLPR2 - I dunno if it's a block so much as a massive invitation to explosive intensification. Like I said, first you've got all the volatiles in the air which can serve as nucleation points for clouds/hail/lightning/etc. Second, when these storms pass over a region, they stir up the water and since the cap over that water by that oil would prevent it from evaporating and taking the heat with it, this would heat up the water underneath it so, unlike Katrina which fell apart as it approached the coast because it moved off the gulf loop, any hurricane going over the oil would stir up a huge blob of warm water at precisely the wrong time! It would make a massive storm like Katrina hit NOLA (just for comparison sake) hit not as a strong cat.3 but as a strong cat.5 because there'd be a not a drop in water temps, but an increase! Those levees aren't designed to hold a cat.5 back. Even with all the upgrades, we'll see NOLA flood part deux if a hurricane passes over that blob of oil - plus the added effect of all that black goo covering everything in sight for miles.
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EP, 03, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1166W, 30, 1007, TD

Blas is about done
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Repeat post.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
1896. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


90E became Agatha
91E
92E became TD 2-E
93E became Blas
94E became Celia
95E ???


Impressive
Those E-Pac invests mean business LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting btwntx08:

yea but we all need to look at the ecmwf and if it does show the storm still that means the cmc had a off run this time


Just because the ecmwf shows development doesnt mean it is right

again I know you are wanting something to track, but you cant cast aside and ignore any run of any model that doesnt show development and only trust the ones that do
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


exactly


Yeah looked like they ran the energy, not even a storm, into the Pacific. Who knows maybe EURO will lose it. Fingers crossed.
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Quoting btwntx08:
cmc off this round


why because it doesnt show development?

lets be a bit less biased
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1891. xcool
ding ding
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Looks like don't develop the one that euro brought to TX. Just the one going to florida


exactly
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has almost every EPAC Invest turned into something?


90E became Agatha
91E
92E became TD 2-E
93E became Blas
94E became Celia
95E ???
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z run



00Z run



fairly big difference to me


Looks like don't develop the one that euro brought to TX. Just the one going to florida
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1886. JLPR2
Quoting highndry1:
JLPR2 - yeah, but then there's the other side of that coin...


the Atlantic.

In 2005 we had neutral La Nina conditions and cooler temps then we had now, plus no massive oil spill the size of Pennsylvania to contend with. Now we've got all three. I just hope they've built those levees in NOLA higher and deeper in the last five years!!! Also, when that oil is spread hither, thither, and yon by various hurricanes passing through and spread MILES inland, what's THAT going to cost BP? It's one thing to have 90% of Biloxi wiped out by a hurricane, quite another to then have it coated in black goo.


yep -.- maybe a huge wall blocking the coast lines?
No matter how you look at it a tropical system meandering in the Gulf is bad news, man...
I really do hope no majors pass through there
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1885. xcool
lol
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Has almost every EPAC Invest turned into something?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
1883. 789
Quoting futuremet:


Models greatest to worst:

ECMWF (good at tropical cyclogeneis and tracking)
CMC (good at tracking)
GFS (medium with both)
UKMET (very conservative and average tracking)
NOGAPS (Poor)
how are you my friend 92L ? good to see you back this year and how is school
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12Z run


00Z run


fairly big difference to me
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


I guess you didn't see the latter half of the run with a Hurricane making landfall near Mobile.



It's just a lil farther west than last night. But they seemed to have lost the west GOM storm.
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---
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I guess you didn't see the latter half of the run with a Hurricane making landfall near Mobile.



That isnt the same system that it was showing at 12Z though

it appears it dropped the development for this week on this run
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Lol. I'm always late.


Its all good. lol
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Lol. I'm always late.
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1874. xcool
i'm not far Mobile.
wow..


1.4 hours
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JLPR2 - yeah, but then there's the other side of that coin...


the Atlantic.

In 2005 we had neutral La Nina conditions and cooler temps then we had now, plus no massive oil spill the size of Pennsylvania to contend with. Now we've got all three. I just hope they've built those levees in NOLA higher and deeper in the last five years!!! Also, when that oil is spread hither, thither, and yon by various hurricanes passing through and spread MILES inland, what's THAT going to cost BP? It's one thing to have 90% of Biloxi wiped out by a hurricane, quite another to then have it coated in black goo.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
GFS 00Z didnt look like it developed anything

that last CMC run at 00Z to me showed very little development


I guess you didn't see the latter half of the run with a Hurricane making landfall near Mobile.

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1869. xcool
ngp poor .need big update
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1868. xcool
ok let see ewcmf shows
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GFS 00Z didnt look like it developed anything

that last CMC run at 00Z to me showed very little development
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Quoting btwntx08:
personally ukmet is garbage


Models greatest to worst:

ECMWF (good at tropical cyclogeneis and tracking)
CMC (good at tracking)
GFS (medium with both)
UKMET (very conservative and average tracking)
NOGAPS (Poor)
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Quoting futuremet:
00z CMC from the FSU site.


so it backed off of development
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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