Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What wave train and are the SST's actually boiling? Y'all watch too much cable news.
i was wondering the same thing...
its fun to watch hurricanes on sat, and watch the life cycles...but to beg for conditions to be perfect for major storms to watch is ridiculous...lol...thats when time needs to be taken to find additional hobbies...pick up a new instrument?...lol...
personally id prefer a handful of "fish storms" and a few weak rain producers...sounds like a good season to me...lol
anyways, hows everyone doing today?
happy fathers day to all the others dads on here...my little one woke me with a few swift kicks in the lower back this morning...lmao.
No not every one did.
Hey MH01. Yeah....still being mentioned on the TWO though which is interesting. They are probably still watching it for trouble down the road.
Loop to see better
Do you mean year?
Taco :o)
Barton is unbelievable. He went on and on about how low down and mean the White House scoundrels had been and then has the nerve to say his comments were misconstrued. What an #$%*#($*!
Oh, 102
Yeah, might start some tropical mischief. Don't want that, no way, uh uh.
personally, you gotta take all predictions with a grain of salt. just because a previous handful of seasons had similar setups does not mean your gonna have a copycat season. everyone on here knows that it takes many factors to be just right for activity to pop up, let alone have a hyperactive season.
lets track stuff when it develops and enjoy it when it does happen...and hope minimum harm is done anywhere...i think its amazing to watch a powerful cat 5 develop and mature, they are a beautiful freak of nature. I however feel the complete opposite when that storm comes ashore killing, destroying, etc...
so as i said...fish storms and rain producers...lol
Lol.
I think you are taking the bait.
When you look back to seasons in the 1900's you will find some are the complete opposite. Such as 1950. It started on August 12th and produced 13 storms, 11 hurricanes and 8 majors. This season also included Hurricane Dog which was a 185 mph hurricane.
Just goes to show that anything can happen.
1998: First named storm developed on July 27, 1998.
1955: First named storm developed on July 31, 1955.
1961: First named storm developed on July 20, 1961.
2004: First named storm developed on July 31, 2004.
1950: (Season with the record for most major hurricanes, 8) First named storm developed on August 12, 1950.
Please stop making those types of posts unless you are "debby", lol.
but it has lasted a long time and i am still watching it.
Junior stuff it, read more post less. These assumptions and opinions you have have no scientific merit what so ever. Just stop
Good Fighting Spirit.
The 'Big Guns' from Europe are being zonked by south American, Central American, Pacific and Near East teams.
France, Germany, England, Spain, Italy all look mediocre.
Going to be some surprises by the end of this Group Stage for sure!
Hyperactivity is measured by ACE. Typically a hyperactive season is when the ACE is above 153.
You are getting trolled.
LOL
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