Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

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The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Not looking too good for the Cayman Islands right now. Didn't Gustav form in this general area ?
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I see. Thanks for your response Storm :)
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I feel like crying this Morning Hurricanes are forming to the east of us and to the west of us We have what we call hurricane weather today in Belize when winds come out of the west and the Hummidity is terrible
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2610. Patrap
Things been outta control in the GOM with BP since 20 April.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting smmcdavid:


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.


Yep, I've been lost in some other forums over the Winter but back here now to keep an eye on all things Tropical concerning the GOM which is really warm for June this year, it could be down right scary by July, August and September!
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2608. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.



I would expect that.
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Quoting BFG308:


Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...
I heard from TampaSpin that they would close down the plant if oil was near.
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.


Let's try this again... :)
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2604. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:
I wonder if a blogger like me can cause the stock market to crash.

If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.


What a moronic post.

Yeah,..the Western World awaits yer next post.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780


No sign of anything closed with 93L.
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2602. 900MB
Quoting StormW:


If nothing changes...nothing!


I was afraid that you would say that!
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If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.
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2600. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Nah, this guy drinks it...
The big guys at b.p. will be drinkin it if the ECMWF model verifies.
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2596. Patrap
DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 20, 2010 — The Coast Guard flies pelicans rehabilitated from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill from New Orleans to Texas to be released into the wild June 20, 2010. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 2nd Class Gina Ruoti.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.



Euro isn't the only model developing this system.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


That doesn't look good at all. Tampa would have oil all over if that track verifies.



Just curious. Why would a hurricane hitting the north gulf cause oil to be in Tampa?

Thanks,

Kelley
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2593. MahFL
I think if the storm goes over the leak site, they will have to remove the cap, so it will be leaking uncontained for a few days....is that right ?
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2592. BFG308
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.


Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...
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2591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

151

WHXX01 KWBC 211310

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W

BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W

BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W

LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W

BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W

BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W

LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W

SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Point of initation of the LLC is key to where this thing will end up.
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Quoting Drakoen:


There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.

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Quoting JDSmith:


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?


I volunteer for the Eglin Natural Resources and here are some numbers to call if you find oil or oiled wildlife.

Report that information on your cell phone to #DEP
Or on regular land line: 877 272-8335
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2587. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
It is a healthy looking blob for sure.
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This looks bad for the GOM.
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2584. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
Whoever did something to Mother Natures Cornflakes...please apologize immediately!!
I would say b.p. is at fault for the corn flake thing. I also would say that quite a few models have a storm rolling over the oil disaster area. What a coincidence.
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2582. Drakoen
Quoting aquak9:
drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.


There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.
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High pressure ridge steering looks to drive this thing whatever it becomes....Louisiana bound
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morning all. the set up for 93 is not looking good.
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2579. Patrap
Cue da Jaws Movie theme score...


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Long range down the road, showing NW/WNW movement once it gets to Yucatan.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Curving bands on the north half of the storm
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2576. Drakoen
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Quoting StormW:


Bingo! Good for R.I.


Wow, SHIPS really likes that blob !
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2574. aquak9
drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.
Well, I can almost promise you it won't be going out to sea... Look at steering
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I still miss Oz......He likes scotch too.
Bill Clinton likes Jack.
I like booze....
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2571. Walshy
Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.



Terrible run or not, a storm with this strength will move the oil or cause BP to temporarily leave the GOM.
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Quoting 69Viking:


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.
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2569. JDSmith
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



St Andrews?


Destin.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


That was an old blog from Fri or Sat.

No it's a new entry from 930 this morning.
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2566. Patrap
Quoting twhcracker:
how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?



Grand Isle Proper in the front ,,is getting some oil..but the Main influx seems to be near Barataria Bay.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
2565. 900MB
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
962mb Cane in the Oily waters of the GOM if yhe Euro is correct



That is one nasty scenario! I would figure that plenty of oil would be tossed into the loop current. Not good for Fla or anyone else for that matter.
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2564. aquak9
Quoting StormW:


I'll have one with ya!


it's five'o'clock somewhere...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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