Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

SHIPS ofrecast for very low shear and High Heat content.


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932010 06/21/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 49 59 70 80 90 96

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 9 5 7 7 5 8 4 2 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 212 168 172 185 266 183 285 263 301 213 291 229 348
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 149 149 149 150 151 152 154 155 159 160
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 149 148 147 146 145 143 144 145 147 146
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 10 12 10
700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 82 81 80 78 74 72 68 67 64 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 84 82 85 80 80 67 71 65 69 57 52 26
200 MB DIV 83 78 83 84 80 79 58 44 23 7 -11 -3 3
LAND (KM) 238 207 178 195 201 326 231 192 276 265 212 241 228
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.3 69.4 70.7 71.9 74.3 76.6 78.6 80.3 81.7 83.1 84.3 85.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 67 56 64 76 76 70 82 113 104 83 91 87 84

Quoting StormW:


?????

I try. I try.

Quoting Patrap:
WHo's JB?

I thought they made Scotch ?

I'm a "Dewer's" man myself....

Quoting 69Viking:


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.

I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?

Homemade comparative June 21 2010 vs June 21 2005

Quoting BFG308:


Does Tampa area have a water treatment facility or do they only supply from the gulf, and release back to the gulf?

Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.

how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?

Quoting Drakoen:
Cannot believe what I am seeing on the ECMWF. A 950mb major hurricane going ov er the oil spill and impacting the Gulf Coast. Dreadful run.

That doesn't look good at all. Tampa would have oil all over if that track verifies.

Quoting Patrap:
WHo's JB?

I thought they made Scotch ?

Nah, this guy drinks it...

Quoting JDSmith:


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?

St Andrews?

I've read that somewhere else.

Quoting StormW:


I'll have one with ya!

it's five'o'clock somewhere...

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
962mb Cane in the Oily waters of the GOM if yhe Euro is correct

That is one nasty scenario! I would figure that plenty of oil would be tossed into the loop current. Not good for Fla or anyone else for that matter.

Quoting twhcracker:
how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?

Grand Isle Proper in the front ,,is getting some oil..but the Main influx seems to be near Barataria Bay.

Quoting Jeff9641:


That was an old blog from Fri or Sat.

No it's a new entry from 930 this morning.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



St Andrews?

Destin.

Quoting 69Viking:


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.

Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.

Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.

Terrible run or not, a storm with this strength will move the oil or cause BP to temporarily leave the GOM.

I still miss Oz......He likes scotch too.
Bill Clinton likes Jack.
I like booze....

Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.

Well, I can almost promise you it won't be going out to sea... Look at steering

drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.

Quoting StormW:


Bingo! Good for R.I.

Wow, SHIPS really likes that blob !

Quoting Drakoen:

Curving bands on the north half of the storm

Long range down the road, showing NW/WNW movement once it gets to Yucatan.

Cue da Jaws Movie theme score...

morning all. the set up for 93 is not looking good.

High pressure ridge steering looks to drive this thing whatever it becomes....Louisiana bound

Quoting aquak9:
drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.

There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.

Quoting StormW:
Whoever did something to Mother Natures Cornflakes...please apologize immediately!!

I would say b.p. is at fault for the corn flake thing. I also would say that quite a few models have a storm rolling over the oil disaster area. What a coincidence.

This looks bad for the GOM.

Quoting Drakoen:

It is a healthy looking blob for sure.

Quoting JDSmith:


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?

I volunteer for the Eglin Natural Resources and here are some numbers to call if you find oil or oiled wildlife.

Report that information on your cell phone to #DEP
Or on regular land line: 877 272-8335

Quoting Drakoen:


There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.

The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.

Point of initation of the LLC is key to where this thing will end up.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.

Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...

I think if the storm goes over the leak site, they will have to remove the cap, so it will be leaking uncontained for a few days....is that right ?

Quoting CaneWarning:


That doesn't look good at all. Tampa would have oil all over if that track verifies.

Just curious. Why would a hurricane hitting the north gulf cause oil to be in Tampa?

Thanks,

Kelley

Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.

Euro isn't the only model developing this system.

DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 20, 2010 — The Coast Guard flies pelicans rehabilitated from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill from New Orleans to Texas to be released into the wild June 20, 2010. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 2nd Class Gina Ruoti.

Quoting Floodman:


Nah, this guy drinks it...

The big guys at b.p. will be drinkin it if the ECMWF model verifies.

If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.