New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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3328. xcool

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I dont see how people are saying it doesnt look good...it is clearly organizing tonight...Convergence has increased in the same area that the 850mb vorticity has increased and structure is getting overall better with great outflow...convection will come...it seems the same people saying it looks bad was the same people saying it looked good earlier...confusing

Your right the 850mb vorticity has become stronger. All it needs to do is tighten it up and then it's one step closer to development. It looks to be becoming more defined.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
http://www.12newsnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=12685822
Channel 12 link.


That's it.....
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3324. xcool
GIVE TIME PEOPLE. GFS BAD FEEDBACK FROM energy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I dont see how people are saying it doesnt look good...it is clearly organizing tonight...Convergence has increased in the same area that the 850mb vorticity has increased and structure is getting overall better with great outflow...convection will come...it seems the same people saying it looks bad was the same people saying it looked good earlier...confusing
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3322. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I am kinda tired of getting my brains beat out on here tonight, so I am going to bed lol

had to wait for an update


either way 93L better gain some convection


Yeah...goodnight lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
3321. 7544
Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L looks pretty bad tonight, of course that can all change tomorrow, I am not writing it off, just thought it would have looked more impressive than it does

Most of me thinks this will develop, but part of me feels maybe the GFS could be right and there may just be too much energy spread out for anything to be able to consolidate.



it might be slow to do anything notice the ull by the bahamas its pulling the system north ward as long as the ull is there it will have a hard time to form imo
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http://www.12newsnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=12685822
Channel 12 link.
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3319. EricSFL
Just based on the fact that the NHC has the EPAC disturbance at such a hgh % and it looks disorganized, I think they'll raise 93L to 60%.
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3318. xcool
btwntx08 TIME WILL TELL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:


I agree....but remember even the aggressive ECMWF runs didn't show significant development at all until Tuesday or Wednesday.


this is true too

see you all tomorrow, will probably check the TWO from my phone lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Was a little surprised they upped it to 50% in the first place.


yea I am kinda tired of getting my brains beat out on here tonight, so I am going to bed lol

had to wait for an update


either way 93L better gain some convection
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3314. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L looks pretty bad tonight, of course that can all change tomorrow, I am not writing it off, just thought it would have looked more impressive than it does

Most of me thinks this will develop, but part of me feels maybe the GFS could be right and there may just be too much energy spread out for anything to be able to consolidate.


I agree....but remember even the aggressive ECMWF runs didn't show significant development at all until Tuesday or Wednesday.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
93L looks pretty bad tonight, of course that can all change tomorrow, I am not writing it off, just thought it would have looked more impressive than it does

Most of me thinks this will develop, but part of me feels maybe the GFS could be right and there may just be too much energy spread out for anything to be able to consolidate.
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3310. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


same


Was a little surprised they upped it to 50% in the first place.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Thank you (-;


Your welcome! :)
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


channel 12 - beaumont

Thank you (-;
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3307. xcool
I HAVE FEEL EWCM GO SHOW NOLA GET HIT.IFIFIFIF IMO.IMO.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting EricSFL:
Do you guys think the next TWO will have a higher percentage for 93L or stays the same?


same
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3303. EricSFL
Do you guys think the next TWO will have a higher percentage for 93L or stays the same?
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Oops sorry about that, but there are some people who do.


Yea I know there are


Basically what I said was I do think in the end it will develop, but earlier we had people claiming this would be a TD tonight or tomorrow, and because I realistically said that wouldnt happen, it means I flip-flopped?

Id say there is a fine line apparently between saying something will develop and being realistic according to someone who thinks all model runs that do not develop something are wrong and should be thrown out

just an observation though
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


ECMWF is getting some better support tonight now

first the GFDL and now the new CMC



Both are picking up on 93 L now?
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Channel and city?


channel 12 - beaumont
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93L better start popping soon or it might be in big trouble. You can see the center on IR. It looks like a mess.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


I'm not a guy and I got it from our locals, as I had stated at the top of the post.

Channel and city?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am not one of those people at all


What I said was 2 totally different things

Oops sorry about that, but there are some people who do.
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3295. xcool
GFS Negative Feedback FROM energy .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3294. Seastep
.. moved
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Quoting Ivanhater:
canadian back on board



ECMWF is getting some better support tonight now

first the GFDL and now the new CMC
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3292. Grothar
Time to turn in. Good night everybody. Stay well. And remember, if you don't have anything nice to say about somebody, take a seat right next to me. Kidding, of course. See you all tomorrow.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
In Beaumont?


yes
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Sorry I ment that for the guy u were quoting. I hate when someone makes blanket statements w/o a source.
Quoting btwntx08:
interesting note that it hardly has something at 700mb and 500mb


I'm not a guy and I got it from our locals, as I had stated at the top of the post.
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canadian back on board

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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

This happens daily some people flip back and forth depending on how something looks.


I am not one of those people at all


What I said was 2 totally different things
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...first image successfully posted from iPad ...not easy.
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I never said it was extremely organized in structure

I said the structure was improving despite the lack of convection


and I never said 93L wouldn't develop, but I can see what the GFS is saying that maybe the energy is too spread out for it to ever consolidate.
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3284. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
93L WILL develops .


Yeah I think so too, but it needs to start consolidating soon before Jamaica and maybe its eventual proximity to Cuba impede development...
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After the systems merged together, looks like it was planning to get way too big for it's britches. So, looks like the rug might be starting to get pulled out from underneath it, now.
Link
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
3282. Seastep
Still haven't fired up my generator. I know, I know.
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3281. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:


Guess the hurricane.


Felix Come on too easy
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3278. xcool
93L WILL develops .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.