New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2928 - 2878

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Quoting pottery:
BAH!!
Looks like another swarm of rain is about to get here.
This Island is wet wet wet.
And just a couple of weeks ago it was hot hot hot.


Hush. It's been a wet one here today also.

Seems like there's alot more coming our way.

Stay dry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2927. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CypressJim08:
Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM?
2AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2am

TY...I always get confused because when we have a named storm there are updates every three hours I think.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pottery ask and you shall receive.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
I will mainly be lurking but I will still be posting blog updates. Thanks for the support.

June 21, 2010 - 11:10 PM EDT - New Invest 93L; Could Be A Problem Down The Road -

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Isn't that the percentage of moisture in the atmosphere?

LOL! Why yes, I do believe it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2922. pottery
BAH!!
Looks like another swarm of rain is about to get here.
This Island is wet wet wet.
And just a couple of weeks ago it was hot hot hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CypressJim08:
Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM?


2am
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Some convection firing near the center.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Aha Storm. LOL! Now we see what just one Fresca and Beam can do? No more forecasting under the influence (FUI).

G-night Chief...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2916. Drakoen
ASCAT caught the western side of the system with no evidence of a surface circulation:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Do we get another update from the NHC at 11PM or 2AM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


Bullish as always...


Hasn't been bullish at all with this system yet, but then again it is the NAM ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltOCane:


exactly, well said.

sorry not eveyone one here knows every single person who is a Met in and around the US and VI.

The Egos in this place are ridiculous.


Actually, I don't think its egos. Maybe more a case of a younger generation that just ASSUMES they're equals of older, more experienced adults. Does anyone from the current generation understand the word humility?

Bottom line, if your 13 or 15 or whatever, just accept there are a lot of people here who know more than you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2909. Drakoen
Lower to mid level turning in the last couple of frames:



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Goodnite Patrapster... loved it! ha ha ha c ya
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Oh..you said bullish!!


ROFLMAO, put your glasses on Storm :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't see anything other than status quo for 93L through the rest of the night. Until we see some deep convection in that dry slot right where the "center" is this is not going to do much of anything. Maybe more action tomorrow.

That said, good night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night all this one is for Ike if he was on line some nice Guitar, Thorogood 2 like some of the bloggers here Bad to the bone, live in Mississippi.Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
2900. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

I can think of 6 that are active ATM.


I'm not one, am I atmo?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


It depends on the storm, some models handle conditions differently. What you want to look for is a series of closely clustered tracks. That is going to be where the storm generally goes. But, outliers exist because sometimes they go there.


Thanks zoo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
14N;69W?
IR2 LOOP


Took a minute to focus but, I have to agree. Helps having mid level circulation just to the N, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2896. leo305
Quoting Dropsonde:
0Z NAM is completely insane. Spins it up to the north and then almost stops it on a dime while it churns and intensifies. Is there ANY reason to believe that steering will collapse in five days? Toss this one on the ever-growing heap of different solutions, I think.


if it becomes a hurricane, what may happen is the upper level steering currents will try to push it NNE/NE while the high to the north will try to push it W/WNW so it's basically stuck until it feels a weakness.. I guess that's what the NAM may be hinting out..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..


How about a 93L version of "Like a Rock" by Bob Seger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Best piece of advice I heard tonight:

Never under any circumstances take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Storm, what is the shear forecast for the next 7days?


The 18z GFS develops an anticyclonic environment across much of the Caribbean, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. It has been consistent with this forecast for nearly three days now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SwLAlawchick:
Good evening folks. Long time lurker here in SW Louisiana. I do love this blog, very informative. I keep a close eye on the tropics through hurricane season. I am in law enforcement, and find this blog to be a wealth of information, and has been so helpful when needed esp in preparation for my family and my profession. I just wanted to say thanks to all for taking the time to put this valuable info together for those of us that need it.


I am in SWLA as well :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Gang! just got in from a busy day at the office...Whats the latest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Who are they?

Playgirl called, and they want there picture back! LOL...
Jussst joshin, I gotta lighten the blog up somehow while we wait for this 93 L to form. Figured you could handle it :) Gotta love a sense of humor!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out what Climatolgy Average Sheer is vs. the Current Average Sheer is in the Caribbean...about 10kts different it appears!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathersp:


Hello watchdog, The GFS and EMCWF are usually the ones to watch at this stage, Once the system gets going, the more sophisticated models like the GFDL and HWRF, as well as the overall trend of the Spaghetti models are good to watch.


Thanks weathers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
0Z NAM is completely insane. Spins it up to the north and then almost stops it on a dime while it churns and intensifies. Is there ANY reason to believe that steering will collapse in three days? Toss this one on the ever-growing heap of different solutions, I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting watchdog40:
7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?


It depends on the storm, some models handle conditions differently. What you want to look for is a series of closely clustered tracks. That is going to be where the storm generally goes. But, outliers exist because sometimes they go there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ivanhater:
00z NAM



Bullish as always...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2881. Patrap
Well Im gonna exit on a winna..

Have a good nite all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting watchdog40:
7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?


Hello watchdog, The GFS and EMCWF are usually the ones to watch at this stage, Once the system gets going, the more sophisticated models like the GFDL and HWRF, as well as the overall trend of the Spaghetti models are good to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2879. Grothar
Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol I didnt pick on anyone

what I said is true and I stand by it. I was not aware that person was a met, again its not obvious to everyone on the blog who is or is not a professional

maybe there should be an icon next to a posters name so we can tell


that is why we all use aliases. "Nobody knows, but the Shadow" No harm done, everyone is a little off tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2928 - 2878

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
38 °F
Mostly Cloudy